KPAE Backed Up With 747-8s, D-ABYL Delivers

Line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL, #10 for Lufthansa delivered on Thursday. Lufthansa should take #11 in the next couple of weeks. Here's D-ABYL arriving in Frankfurt, Germany:

Deliveries need to pick up indeed, because a rather substantial backlog has built up over the past six months or so at Paine Field. It seems a lot of cargo operators are in no hurry to take their frames. There are twelve frames sitting at KPAE currently, and only two are older frames. Cargolux has two ready to start test flying. NCA has three frames in waiting (one has flown, one needs engines, one needs engines and paint). Their last delivered, line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ, hasn't flown since her delivery flight almost a month ago according to FlightRadar and FlightAware. They must be having some logistic or scheduling problems, because it shouldn't take a month to get a freighter into service. It'll be interesting to see how quickly Silk Way takes up the two frames currently on the flight line earmarked for them. One bit of good news is that line 1481 (RC548) HL7623 for Korean Air Cargo finally has engines and paint.

Hopefully, along with the slower production rate, this 747-8 backlog can clear out over the next two to three months.

End of the Desert Saga

Today line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines had a delivery flight in the midst of heavy fog at KPAE. This frame was actually delivered in December of 2013, but sat around for a month waiting to fly to Tokyo. This was the last of five frames that were stored long term in the desert at Pinal Airpark. Hopefully that won't happen again.

And a look back at the chart now vs what it was in May 2012:

And that was 2013

Boeing delivered 24 747-8s in 2013, down from 31 last year.

Line 1488 (RC549) HL7624 for Korean Air Cargo slipped out just ahead of the bell, flying off to Seoul on the 30th.

Photo thanks to moonm.

One delivered 747-8F, line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo has yet to fly away.

What's to look forward to in 2014? Well, the new 1.5 frame per month assembly rate should slow things down, and I estimate only 16-20 deliveries for the year. The 1500th 747 should be rolled out and delivered to Lufthansa. Air China and Korean Airlines should be the second and third operators of the 747-8I this year. And hopefully, some more orders!

Here's to an auspicious new year for the 747.

Cathay takes one for the road

Cathay Pacific announced today an order for one 747-8F which will bring their total fleet to 14. I was hoping for more, but one is better than none. Cathay's VLA passenger plans are clearly 100% focused on the 777 unfortunately for the 747-8. In other Cathay updates, they took delivery of line 1486 (RC563) B-LJM on the 23rd.

Also delivered was AirBridgeCargo's final frame, line 1483 (RC605) VQ-BRJ. This, along with the paper delivery of line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines, marks the end of the desert storage saga, at east for now. All 747-8s that were parked in the desert over the last year or so have now been delivered.

It's looking like 23 deliveries for 2013, unless line 1488 (RC549) HL7624 for Korean can squeeze out the door before the end of the year. That's down from 31 last year, but still a healthy number.

Second 747-8 PIP Delivery

Today, Cathay Pacific took delivery of line 1484 (RC562) B-LJL, marking the second delivery of a 747-8 with PIP engines. Deja vu, two deliveries in two days. The third should happen in the next few days.

Line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ also paper delivered to NCA two days ago, and should fly away soon. On deck for 2013 still are lines 1483 (RC605) VQ-BRJ for ABC and 1488 (RC549) HL7624 Korean Air Cargo, but the latter is looking like a stretch with only one test flight so far.

You might notice the bottom of the chart has four new Intercontinentals added. Two of those are for Lufthansa, which gave me a sigh of relief. I was a bit paranoid they were going to cancel the last four orders and stick with 15 747-8Is, after they cancelled a few A380s earlier this year. Now it looks like they're going ahead with all 19 747-8Is, and possibly 20 if they end up taking line 1435 (RC021) D-ABYE back. I say add another five to fill up the alphabet (D-ABYZ?). Not including that extra letter in the German alphabet of course (D-ABYß?).

Looking Like 23 Deliveries For 2013

Blogger.com is blocked from China, as is a bunch of other stuff. I found a way to keep the chart updated though.

So I missed all the excitement of all three new Cathay frames having B1s over 4 days (and it was almost three consecutive). That would be lines 1483 (RC561) B-LJK, 1484 (RC562) B-LJL, and 1486 (RC563) B-LJM.

It looks like between these three and lines 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ (for NCA) and 1483 (RC605) VQ-BRJ (for ABC), Boeing is really pushing to get them out before the end of the year, which would give us 23 deliveries for 2013.

I scored three 747-400 rides this trip, and it's good to see so much 747 activity at the big airports. It's not what it used to be but there are still a lot of them taxiing around. I flew on RP-C7472 (line 1012 for Philippines from LAX to MNL), B-HUF (line 993 for Cathay from HKG to TPE), and B-18207 (line 1176 for China Airlines from TPE to LAX), with a bonus short hop in an A340 from MNL to HKG on the outgoing, which happens to be my favorite Airbus. It was scheduled for an A330, which is the most boring airliner in existence to me, so the swap was a great surprise. A340-300 RP-C3438 was fresh over from Iberia to Philippines Airlines, still with the old Iberia livery minus branding.

Saw a lot of 747-8s on this trip too. Can't wait to fly in one. They really are the best looking version of the best looking airliner ever made. Here are some pics:

RP-C7472 - don't those engines just give you warm fuzzies?

Upper Deck!

RP-C3438 still wearing old clothes.

Hong Kong - How many 747-8s can you count?

D-ABYF at Hong Kong.

B-HUF ready for a short hop to Taiwan.

There isn't always time for a great pic, but gotta get the tail number. Funny thing was the cute flight attendant listed it off from memory before I took this shot to verify. I'm in love.

Need For (Ground) Speed Baby!!

Rise From Your Grave(yard) Part Deux - Part 2

Ok, they're both back at KPAE now. This means there are now no 747-8s left in desert storage.

Line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for NCA (pic by Matt Cawby)

 

Line 1482 (RC605) VQ-BRJ for AirBridgeCargo

Rise From Your Grave(yard) Part Deux

Matt Cawby tweeted that the last two frames in storage, line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines and line 1482 (RC605) VQ-BRJ for AirBridgeCargo, will head back to KPAE today. NCA 747-8s are all over KPAE right now!

 Update: Didn't happen. But line 1437 (RC573) went for a flight with the FAA on board. And she has blue engines now. What could this mean? If this were a good blog I could tell you :(

Pic by Matt Cawby.

There was an airworthiness directive issued today for 747-8s about a missing bushing that could lead to problems.

RIP 747-400 line 927 JA8957 for ANA. She goes to her doom at Tupelo, the saddest place in the world for a 747 fan. The locals must have gotten a kick seeing this colorful bird come in for a landing.

The 1500th 747 goes to Lufthansa

Enough said. She'll be line 1500 (RC035) D-ABYP.

Line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines entered long term storage at Pinal Airpark. Thanks to Piotrek_ for the sequence of her leaving KPAE today.

Various

D-ABYI went for her first revenue flight today (that link will only work for about four months after this post). Welcome to the working world "I", may your career last 120,000 hours or more. She's at about 30 hours as of this post; 119,970 to go.

Three frames were up today for test flights: Nippon Cargo line 1479, Cargolux line 1478, and Unclaimed line 1437. Unclaimed is sure hanging around Paine Field for a long time. I'd think she'd be in storage by now. Hopefully that means they're finding her a home...?

An article here has some more detail on 747-8 improvements. A lot we might have heard before. 747 program v-p and general manager Eric Lindblad says that current frames are 5,600 pounds lighter than those originally delivered, and Boeing has identified ways to drop another 1,600 pounds; in all, the savings contribute some 2 percent to operating efficiency. He also says he'd like the total weight loss to reach 10,000 pounds, and perhaps increase the -8I’s range to 8,200 nm, by around 2016. The article also acknowledges that all unfinished frames have been refurbished, so the 747 build team can get back to focusing on building new frames. Well, I guess there's still line 1435.

Come on Paris, give us another 747-8 order!

NCA Line 1479 First Flight

Line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines had a first flight today. This frame is either preparing for delivery or storage. Nippon Cargo has 14 747-8Fs ordered, two of which are already in service. Six more are built or scheduled to be built. NCA plans on taking three frames in the latter half of this year, and then three more next year. That leaves six frames left in the order which have yet to be scheduled for assembly. Due to deferment, one frame, line 1469 (RC524) JA14KZ, sits in storage in the desert. One frame, test frame 2, line 1421 (RC521) JA11KZ, is on the flight line needing a repaint. My prediction is that they'll take lines 1421, 1469, and 1479 this year, and the next three scheduled to be built will move into storage until they're delivered next year. The remaining six will probably be built in 2014/2015 and delivered in 2015/2016.

While taxiing, a giant spider attacks KPAE

787 Line 111 G-ZBJB for British Airways gets ready to fly while JA15KZ prepares for a taxi test.

G-ZBJB takes off, JA15KZ moves into position

Triumphant Return

Line 1421 feels like a new plane! Next up, paint. After that, storage or delivery. NCA is scheduled to take three frames towards the end of the year, so I'm guessing they'll take this one, 1469, and 1479. The last three scheduled for assembly should deliver next year. The six orders they have remaining after that, who knows, but probably 2015 and later.

Beautiful pic thanks to Matt Cawby's great blog.