Happy Second Birthday Line 1416!

(In service birthday, at least). My how time flies.

Cargolux Takes One and Maybe Five More

Yesterday line 1522 RC513 LX-VCM delivered to Cargolux, the last of their original order of 13 748Fs. However, they're already talking about taking five more. Line 1534 is scheduled for final assembly, so they better make up their minds quick. These five frames are earmarked for a north central China based operation.

Line 1522 has a very interesting livery. Can't say I'm fond of it.

Photo by moonm

PS - Sorry, I've sucked at updating the blog lately, but I still keep the chart pretty up-to-date. I got my private pilot certificate back in May and flying (albeit much smaller) planes myself has competed with my love of watching them from afar.

Catching Up (Old News): Orders!

In old news, 747-8 lovers have had something to be excited about, in that there were some firm orders and speculative orders in the news recently.

First, Silk Way has ordered three more 747-8Fs. These are firm orders. The main area of interest here is if they'll be taking any of the currently three 747-8Fs stored at Marana, or will they be new builds? Or a mix? This probably depends on if Asiana is still talking to Boeing or if that deal really is dead. Either way, that's three firm orders for 2015, only twelve to go. Plus the sixteen they need from last year...

Second, Cargolux's CEO says they will order more 747-8Fs, as many as twenty more. He says there's no replacement for the 747-8F.

And Turkish Airlines is still mentioning the 747. But I'm not holding my breath.

Two First Flights for January

Both line 1504 RC512 LX-VCL, 748F #12 for Cargolux, and line 1512 RC038 D-ABYS, 748I #17 for Lufthansa, made first flights this month. Both are scheduled to deliver in February. Here they are, learning to fly:

Line 1512 RC038 D-ABYS, by Matt Cawby

Line 1504 RC512 LX-VCL

Line 1504 returning to KPAE after B1

Happy Birthday Line 1416, LX-ECV

How quickly a year flies by, and how fast those hours add up! Just over a year ago, after a stillbirth and over four years of desert storage with barely twenty hours on the clock, line 1416 entered into service with Cargolux as LX-ECV, . She's doing much better now, traveling the world, but mostly focusing on Europe to South America and back. Cargolux keeps her busy too. It's truly a happy ending (so far) for this formerly neglected frame.

Could she be the last 744 in service one day? Will she ever receive a full livery? We shall see!

Two More Deliveries in September

It was a good month for the 747-8. Not only did Air China pick up their first, but Cargolux took another. Line 1490 (RC510) LX-VCJ is now in service, and she left with some flair...

moonm

A (non Lufthansa) Delivery!

Cargolux flew off line 1491 (RC511) LX-VCK today. This is only the second delivery to an airline other than Lufthansa this year. They skipped line 1490 (RC510) LX-VCJ, which is still stored in the desert, but they aim to take at least one more this year.

Cawby pic

This is only the second freighter delivery of 2014. Boeing keeps saying the freight market is coming back, but two freighter deliveries over seven months is not a good sign.

Line 1416 in service

Line 1416 LX-ECV for Cargolux got a little bit more livery added to her, with the company emblem painted on her tail. She's been in service for eight months already. How long will she fly? I would say it's either:

• another 9 months, if she's due a D check at the six year mark
• another 5 years, if the D check time frame is put on hold while properly stored
• either of the above plus 6, 12, or 18 years, due to D checks being every 6 years for 747-400s.

So I'm hoping for another 23 years, personally.

From Planespotters

B1s Are Back

It looks like 747-8 flight testing is starting to pick up around KPAE, finally. Line 1495 (RC009) A6-PFB (unconfirmed tail) for Abu Dhabi Amiri (BBJ) went up for a B1, and then line 1490 (RC510) LX-VCJ for Cargolux did too. Line 1481 (RC548) HL7623 for Korean Air Cargo should finally get a B1 in soon as well.

Here is line 1495's B1, by moonm:

(UPDATE: Line 1481 is up in the air. Finally after 6 months of neglect. In the comments Piotrek says it's HL7623 and is likely correct.)

In random news, KLM MD11 PH-KCD (to be retired this year with the other three remaining KLM MD11s) has ~85,000 hours and ~13,000 cycles. Man I felt like a dork asking the captain, but he was cool and read it right off the ship's logs.

KPAE Backed Up With 747-8s, D-ABYL Delivers

Line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL, #10 for Lufthansa delivered on Thursday. Lufthansa should take #11 in the next couple of weeks. Here's D-ABYL arriving in Frankfurt, Germany:

Deliveries need to pick up indeed, because a rather substantial backlog has built up over the past six months or so at Paine Field. It seems a lot of cargo operators are in no hurry to take their frames. There are twelve frames sitting at KPAE currently, and only two are older frames. Cargolux has two ready to start test flying. NCA has three frames in waiting (one has flown, one needs engines, one needs engines and paint). Their last delivered, line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ, hasn't flown since her delivery flight almost a month ago according to FlightRadar and FlightAware. They must be having some logistic or scheduling problems, because it shouldn't take a month to get a freighter into service. It'll be interesting to see how quickly Silk Way takes up the two frames currently on the flight line earmarked for them. One bit of good news is that line 1481 (RC548) HL7623 for Korean Air Cargo finally has engines and paint.

Hopefully, along with the slower production rate, this 747-8 backlog can clear out over the next two to three months.

Happy 1/10th Birthday, Line 1416

Some good pictures of line 1416 LX-ECV for Cargolux in action have popped up at Widebodies. She's one tenth of a year old (at least in in-service years) now. Not much of a livery but at least there's something. Even if they park her again after three months, I can die knowing the frame wasn't totally wasted.

Pic 1

Pic 2 

And here just last week in Brazil.

Video of takeoff from Afonso Pena International Airport. (ruined by youtube's smoothing algorithm but better than nothing).

Paine Field activity isn't exactly electrifying right now. Cathay's new triplets are still being tested, but it's getting late for them to really contribute to the holiday rush. Korean Air Cargo's line 1488 (RC549) HL7624 is pending a first flight. It's strange that this frame is in flight test while line 1481 (RC548) also for KAC has been sitting unpainted and un-engined for six months.

Sound of Silence

The Dubai Air Show is happening, and the big Middle East carriers are ordering 1 billion planes, none of which are 747-8s. It's disheartening for a 747-8 fan. The capacity Emirates ordered between their 150 777X and 50 A380 purchase is astounding. Either Emirates is onto something that no other carrier is aware of, or they're going too big too fast. It'll be interesting to see. Either way, it would've been great if there were twenty or thirty 747-8s in that order somewhere, but alas there aren't. My hopes of Emirates or Etihad buying into it now have almost entirely evaporated.

Around KPAE, I've identified the mysterious white tail. Cargolux line 1491 (RC511) LX-VCK snuck out of the final assembly line on us a few weeks back. Lufthansa's tenth frame, line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL, rolled out with engines. This is the first frame to incorporate all of the performance improvements directly out of the FAL. A couple recent frames have been painted, had engines installed, and even had engine runs. However, it's really getting late to deliver these frames in 2013, and activity has been very slow. Either the three new Cathay frames start flying soon or they must be planning on the deliveries slipping to 2014.

Lufthansa line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL, by Matt Cawby

And in bragging news, I'm going on a business trip to China tomorrow for a week, and I scored an upper deck business class seat in a Philippines 747-400. I'm pretty excited as I've never gotten to fly in the upper deck before. #ballin

Predicting the End of Year Deliveries

First, it's been tough keeping the chart 100% accurate lately. It's not just the many unpainted, un-engined frames that have been sitting around KPAE. There are very few flight line shots taken to reference these days. I'm left to pick 747s from the corners of cropped photos targeting less interesting planes to keep the chart up to date, and I often have to guess or speculate. I appreciate any missed observations left in the comments section.

One mystery is the white rudder 747 on the tower apron, and the other parked in stall 120 (at least as of a couple days ago). One has got to be NCA line 1489, but all other frames that would be white rudder tails have been verified as being painted. Even if Cargolux line 1491 just rolled out unpainted with white rudder, these two frames have been showing up in pictures for at least a week or two. Unless it was a really well timed swap?

Line 1416 LX-ECV for Cargolux is in service with a white paint job. She's flying in to Atlanta tonight. Anyone there to get some pics?

Ok, now down to the main topic. How many 747-8s will deliver in 2013? So far we've had 17 frames delivered. Looking towards the end of the year, these are the remaining possibilities (notice they are all freighters):

1. 1469 (RC524) JA14KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
2. 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
3. 1482 (RC605) VQ-BRJ for AirBridgeCargo
4. 1483 (RC561) B-LJK for Cathay
5. 1484 (RC562) B-LJL for Cathay
6. 1486 (RC563) B-LJM cor Cathay
7. 1481 (RC548)  ? for Korean Air Cargo
8. 1488 (RC549)  ? for Korean Air Cargo
9. 1485 (RC526) JA16KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
10. 1487 (RC527) JA17KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
11. 1490 (RC510) LX-VCJ for Cargolux
12. 1489 (RC528) JA18KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
13. 1437 (RC573)
14. 1491 (RC511) LX-VCK for Cargolux

I've color code them by likelihood. 1 and 2 will most likely deliver because they're ready, and NCA stated they plan on three total this year; so far they've only taken one (line 1421, which by the way just entered service). 4, 5, and 6 will probably deliver because Cathay plans on having all three before the end of the year, and they all have engines and paint jobs. The one major thing that could stop these deliveries is the FAA failing to punctually certify the big changes these frames incorporate. 3 will deliver because ABC just parked a 747-400F to make room for it. 7 might deliver to Korean, as it has engines and it's tentatively scheduled to deliver in December. 8 might take 7's spot, or less likely join it. 9, 10, and 12 probably won't deliver because NCA said they plan on taking the next three frames in 2014, and they don't have engines yet. 11 and 14 are distant possibilities, and 13 is another distant possibility, depending on if it has a customer and what their timetable would be.

According to 747Classic on airliners.net, the following are officially scheduled for December, but Boeing schedules are fluid:

L/N1482 RC605 ABC

L/N1483 RC561 Cathay

L/N1484 RC562 Cathay

L/N1486 RC563 Cathay

L/N1488 RC549 KAL

So low end 20, absolute high end 31. Most likely, we're looking at around 23-24 747-8s being delivered for the year of 2013.

Update: It's been pointed out that NCA's plan to take three frames in 2013 is actually for their fiscal year, which ends in April 2014, so line 1479 could slip past December.

A Tribute to a Really Overdue Delivery (Lucky) #7: Line 1416 (747-400)

Line 1416. The poor 747-400ERF, neglected, unloved, unwanted. Four and a half years old. Sitting in the desert for over four of those long, lonesome years...

OK, I'm being overly sappy. I'll stop. But the BIG NEWS today is that line 1416 is officially in business with new owner Cargolux. She flew out of Pinal Airpark straight to Anchorage and into service.

Line 1416 is now Cargolux LX-ECV.

A little trip down memory lane is called for. Line 1416 rolled out of the FAL late February 2009.

At the fuel dock after roll out, by Matt Cawby

At the compass rose, by Matt Cawby

She had her first flight March 21st, 2009. She was supposed to be 9K-DAA for LoadAir Cargo, along with sister ship line 1419 (the last 747-400 built).

Lining up for first flight, by Matt Cawby

Returning from first flight.

A test flight in April 2009, by Matt Cawby

LoadAir Cargo went out of business, and Line 1416 was given the Boeing tail N797BA. She took a short hop to Vancouver before heading to Pinal Airpark, where she ended up sitting for over four years. 

Leaving for storage, by Matt Cawby

There were suitors along the way, but every deal fell through for one reason or another. Her sister in exile, line 1419 was bought by Kalitta in 2011 and has been cruising the skies ever since.

Behind line 1419.

On the right, next to sister ship line 1419, by AirTeamImages

All alone now...

After a promising deal with Qantas Freight fell through earlier this year, it seemed 1416 would never fly again, but Cargolux must have seized the opportunity and swooped in to the rescue.

Returning from a first flight out of storage, by azspyder

Cargolux is a great operator for line 1416. They heavily utilize their 747s, and send them to all four corners of the Earth. I can't wait to catch her in full livery at various airports around the world. Overdue is an understatement in this case, but it makes this delivery so much more savory.

Delivery flight. Arriving in Anchorage.