President Elect Trump tweeted out a warning to Boeing about the cost of the new Air Force One in development. The most interesting thing about this is confirmation that the order is back down to two 747-8s.
Showing posts with label 747-8 News. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 747-8 News. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 6, 2016
Thursday, October 27, 2016
UPS orders 14 747-8s
UPS and Boeing announced an order for 14 747-8 Freighters today. There's an option for 14 more at a later date.
Well this came from out of the blue!
Developing...
Well this came from out of the blue!
Developing...
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Thursday, March 31, 2016
No news is no news.
Trying to cover the 747-8 right now is sort of like trying to cover decaying uranium. Things are slow and there's not much to talk about.
Boeing said last month that the slow down in manufacturing is temporary, and that in 2019 they'll increase the rate once again. But this outlook depends on their slightly biased/myopic predictions about cargo demand, which I have some skepticism over. Meanwhile they're laying off a large group of people in the short term.
Boeing has been shipping 747-8 engines from various sad frames in the desert to install on KPAE airframes due for delivery over the next months, namely Korean Airlines frames. They still have five scheduled to deliver this year. Could this be a sign of engine production issues? Or GE lethargy? This, by the way, doesn't bode well for the short term future of said desert airframes.
I flew a Cessna 210 a few weeks ago, which, compared to the C172s and PA-28s I'm used to, sort of felt like a 747-8. I pretended to have four throttle controls the whole time...
Boeing said last month that the slow down in manufacturing is temporary, and that in 2019 they'll increase the rate once again. But this outlook depends on their slightly biased/myopic predictions about cargo demand, which I have some skepticism over. Meanwhile they're laying off a large group of people in the short term.
Boeing has been shipping 747-8 engines from various sad frames in the desert to install on KPAE airframes due for delivery over the next months, namely Korean Airlines frames. They still have five scheduled to deliver this year. Could this be a sign of engine production issues? Or GE lethargy? This, by the way, doesn't bode well for the short term future of said desert airframes.
I flew a Cessna 210 a few weeks ago, which, compared to the C172s and PA-28s I'm used to, sort of felt like a 747-8. I pretended to have four throttle controls the whole time...
Friday, January 22, 2016
747-8 Report cuts post rate to 0.5 per month.
As you can now see, a prescient move on my part; one post per 747-8 manufactured. Boeing's new rate begins in September, and comes with an $885,000,000 pre-tax write off this month. I'll be writing off $0.085 myself, rounded up.
Seriously though, this is really not a harbinger of future success for the 747 program, no matter how you look at it. Six planes a year is starting to look like an exit plan to me. I feel bad typing that, and it's especially frustrating with how cheap jet fuel is now.
Seriously though, this is really not a harbinger of future success for the 747 program, no matter how you look at it. Six planes a year is starting to look like an exit plan to me. I feel bad typing that, and it's especially frustrating with how cheap jet fuel is now.
Wednesday, July 15, 2015
747-8 Flutter Fix Gonna Cost Boeing
The FAA has decided the 747-8 flutter issue is real and needs fixing. Note that it only can happen in very limited circumstances, but Boeing will have to foot the bill at $400,000 per plane to fix it. That's about 30 million dollars to cover all of the currently delivered frames.
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
Air China Order Filled
Early this morning the final 747-8I for Air China, line 1518 RC072 B-2480, flew off on her delivery flight. Thus another 747-8I order is filled.
Now that Air China has all seven airframes (from an initial order of five and a top up of two), it sure would be nice if they decided they want a nice even number of 747-8s, like 10, or 20. At least they're all being used for passenger flight. Early on there were rumors anywhere from two to all of them would be for VIP only.
And on a related note, one of Air China's frames, line 1510 B-2479, is in Germany undergoing a VIP conversion. This plane has been flying in a passenger only config since delivery late last year, including long haul routes to New York and San Francisco, so I postulate this is some sort of swappable conversion, and she'll be able to be used as VIP when needed and a passenger plane the rest of the time. That's the smart way to do VIP.
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| Via Woody |
And on a related note, one of Air China's frames, line 1510 B-2479, is in Germany undergoing a VIP conversion. This plane has been flying in a passenger only config since delivery late last year, including long haul routes to New York and San Francisco, so I postulate this is some sort of swappable conversion, and she'll be able to be used as VIP when needed and a passenger plane the rest of the time. That's the smart way to do VIP.
Volga-Dnepr Group (sort of) Orders 20 747-8Fs
Hot off the presses, Volga-Dnepr Group has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to take 20 747-8Fs over the next seven years. Part of this deal includes logistic support from Volga's Antonov-124-100 fleet, which is often seen delivering fuselages and other things to Paine Field. The reason I say "sort of" is because an MOU is just the first step in a long process of getting orders firmed up.
Read about it here.
This is about three 747s a year through 2022. If Boeing can sign a few more airlines, like Cargolux, to similar deals, they very well could keep the 747 line churning at twelve or so frames a year into the 2020s. Exciting news.
Read about it here.
This is about three 747s a year through 2022. If Boeing can sign a few more airlines, like Cargolux, to similar deals, they very well could keep the 747 line churning at twelve or so frames a year into the 2020s. Exciting news.
Thursday, April 30, 2015
Lufthansa Order Filled
Today is bittersweet. Lufthansa takes the final delivery of their order for 19 747-8Is. The order that kicked off the program is filled. Line 1514 RC040 D-ABYU is the last Lufty frame to leave the nest.
It's pretty certain now that there won't be a top up order from Lufthansa, as many of us had hoped. Sadder still that they won't be taking line 1435 either. Line 1435's future looks dire; years in a desert, followed by, at best, sparse use by a BBJ customer on Rolex shopping trips. Maybe Air Morocco will take her.
But alas, let us celebrate Lufthansa for at least being the catalyst behind the beautiful 748I, and operating by far the largest fleet of them, hopefully deep into the 21st century.
I still need to write about my trip on the 748 last month. In summary: it was cool.
It's pretty certain now that there won't be a top up order from Lufthansa, as many of us had hoped. Sadder still that they won't be taking line 1435 either. Line 1435's future looks dire; years in a desert, followed by, at best, sparse use by a BBJ customer on Rolex shopping trips. Maybe Air Morocco will take her.
But alas, let us celebrate Lufthansa for at least being the catalyst behind the beautiful 748I, and operating by far the largest fleet of them, hopefully deep into the 21st century.
I still need to write about my trip on the 748 last month. In summary: it was cool.
Monday, March 16, 2015
Catching Up (Old News): Orders!
In old news, 747-8 lovers have had something to be excited about, in that there were some firm orders and speculative orders in the news recently.
First, Silk Way has ordered three more 747-8Fs. These are firm orders. The main area of interest here is if they'll be taking any of the currently three 747-8Fs stored at Marana, or will they be new builds? Or a mix? This probably depends on if Asiana is still talking to Boeing or if that deal really is dead. Either way, that's three firm orders for 2015, only twelve to go. Plus the sixteen they need from last year...
Second, Cargolux's CEO says they will order more 747-8Fs, as many as twenty more. He says there's no replacement for the 747-8F.
And Turkish Airlines is still mentioning the 747. But I'm not holding my breath.
First, Silk Way has ordered three more 747-8Fs. These are firm orders. The main area of interest here is if they'll be taking any of the currently three 747-8Fs stored at Marana, or will they be new builds? Or a mix? This probably depends on if Asiana is still talking to Boeing or if that deal really is dead. Either way, that's three firm orders for 2015, only twelve to go. Plus the sixteen they need from last year...
Second, Cargolux's CEO says they will order more 747-8Fs, as many as twenty more. He says there's no replacement for the 747-8F.
And Turkish Airlines is still mentioning the 747. But I'm not holding my breath.
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Silk Way (almost) Orders Three 747-8Fs
As rumored before, Silk Way and Boeing announced that they are almost ready to firm up an order for three 747-8Fs. This puts us in the black for orders the second week of the year!
This is great news of course. One interesting thing that remains to be seen is if these are new builds or if Silk Way takes some existing white tails. There just happens to be three white tail 747-8Fs already in storage.
This is great news of course. One interesting thing that remains to be seen is if these are new builds or if Silk Way takes some existing white tails. There just happens to be three white tail 747-8Fs already in storage.
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
Air China 747-8I to New York Started Today
Today, Air China flew its inaugural 747-8I flight to JFK airport in New York City as flights CA981 and CA982. This is the first regularly scheduled international passenger service on a 747-8I not run by Lufthansa. Line 1507 RC067 B-2486 got to do the initial run. This 13 hour flight is scheduled daily, and soon to join in on the international action will be daily service to San Francisco, scheduled to start mid year. The article linked above also states Los Angeles starts in March, but I'm not sure if that's accurate or not. I hope it is!
Also, line 1487 RC527 JA17KZ flew off to Tokyo today. This frame actually delivered contractually in December 2014. There are now no undelivered NCA frames lying around in storage. First time in a long time that can be said! There are, however, six still on order, none of which have been assigned slots in the firing order yet.
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| B-2486 arriving at JFK. Photo by cv880m. |
Also, line 1487 RC527 JA17KZ flew off to Tokyo today. This frame actually delivered contractually in December 2014. There are now no undelivered NCA frames lying around in storage. First time in a long time that can be said! There are, however, six still on order, none of which have been assigned slots in the firing order yet.
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Some Not So Good News
Gimme the bad news first doc:
1.) Boeing is slowing down the 747-8 production rate from 1.5 frames a month to 1.3 frames a month. Or in other words, 18 frames a year to 15.5 frames a year. This stretches out the current backlog to about two years, but it's clearly not a good sign for demand. And even though that means the last currently ordered frame would be built in about two years (early 2017), the reality is that things are even more pressing for Boeing suppliers. They have to manufacture parts for 747s a substantial amount of time before a plane is completed, so the supplier backlog may run out in as soon as a year.
The 747 production line heading forward can probably be slowed down to about one frame a month, or twelve a year. This gives Boeing probably two more opportunities in the future to announce slowdowns before they would have to realistically address shutting down the line. With slowdowns like these, they can probably stretch the backlog out through 2017.
The other alternative is that Boeing needs to sell 15 frames a year to keep things chugging a long. Last year, they did pretty well, selling 12 net (17 gross) airframes. This year has been dire though, with a big fat zero net sales (two gross). After the Asiana cancellation, I'm losing confidence that they'll be able to sell any substantial amount of frames moving forward. There are still potential sales out there, but the longer things drag on with silence, the closer we get to the 778F, the less likely they seem to happen.
2.) Asiana NTU's were confirmed by Boeing. That'll be a total of four white tails, plus line 1437, which may or may not already have a customer.
1.) Boeing is slowing down the 747-8 production rate from 1.5 frames a month to 1.3 frames a month. Or in other words, 18 frames a year to 15.5 frames a year. This stretches out the current backlog to about two years, but it's clearly not a good sign for demand. And even though that means the last currently ordered frame would be built in about two years (early 2017), the reality is that things are even more pressing for Boeing suppliers. They have to manufacture parts for 747s a substantial amount of time before a plane is completed, so the supplier backlog may run out in as soon as a year.
The 747 production line heading forward can probably be slowed down to about one frame a month, or twelve a year. This gives Boeing probably two more opportunities in the future to announce slowdowns before they would have to realistically address shutting down the line. With slowdowns like these, they can probably stretch the backlog out through 2017.
The other alternative is that Boeing needs to sell 15 frames a year to keep things chugging a long. Last year, they did pretty well, selling 12 net (17 gross) airframes. This year has been dire though, with a big fat zero net sales (two gross). After the Asiana cancellation, I'm losing confidence that they'll be able to sell any substantial amount of frames moving forward. There are still potential sales out there, but the longer things drag on with silence, the closer we get to the 778F, the less likely they seem to happen.
2.) Asiana NTU's were confirmed by Boeing. That'll be a total of four white tails, plus line 1437, which may or may not already have a customer.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Who Doesn't Love BBJs
There's been very little noise about them lately, but this recent article provides some update on the status of our (9) 747-8 BBJs. Parsed to correspond with the order of the chart's BBJ tab:
UPDATE: BBJ #8 (line 1468 RC008 VQ-BSK) is apparently done. She went up for a test flight and is pending delivery.
- Line 1434: Expected delivery by the end of 2015
- Line 1439: Expected delivery by the end of 2014
- Line 1440: Expected delivery by the end of 2014
- Line 1446: Currently stored and looking for a customer
- Line 1449: Expected delivery by the end of 2014 or early 2015
- Line 1459: Expected delivery by the end of 2014
- Line 1466: Expected delivery by the end of 2014
- Line 1468: Expected delivery by the end of
20152014(?) - Line 1495: Expected delivery to BBJ early January 2015, so this one should be leaving storage in the next month or two. She'll probably go to Lufthansa Technique in January and deliver to the customer in late 2016.
UPDATE: BBJ #8 (line 1468 RC008 VQ-BSK) is apparently done. She went up for a test flight and is pending delivery.
Friday, October 3, 2014
GECAS Cancels Two Freighters
Judging by the updated Boeing orders page, two 747-8Fs were cancelled this week, and they must be from GECAS (General Electric Capital Aviation Services). Boeing shows a total backlog of 42 frames, 15 freighters and 27 passenger frames. That gives us:
That freighter backlog is THIN! Especially considering they have four of them built and waiting for test/delivery, three unclaimed frames already built, two more claimed and two more unclaimed in the pipe. No matter how you interpret those numbers (for example, line 1437, and are the current unclaimed frames white tails or will they go to an existing customer if they can't be sold to a new one) that leaves a mere three to six frames left to allocate in the build order.
Surprisingly the Intercontinental has the stronger backlog right now. I still expect the Arik Air orders to be officially cancelled sometime in the future, and four of those frames are already built, so that leaves a backlog of about twenty frames to build.
With an official sales total of a big fat negative one frame for 2014, and about 1 1/2 years of backlog to build at the current build rate, Boeing needs to make things happen. For better or worse, there's going to have to be some substantial 747-8 news coming from them in the near term.
- (1) Cathay
- (9) NCA
- (3) Cargolux
- (2) Korean Air Cargo
- (4) Lufthansa
- (10) Korean Air
- (6) Air China
- (4) Transaero
- (2) Arik Air
- (1) BBJ
That freighter backlog is THIN! Especially considering they have four of them built and waiting for test/delivery, three unclaimed frames already built, two more claimed and two more unclaimed in the pipe. No matter how you interpret those numbers (for example, line 1437, and are the current unclaimed frames white tails or will they go to an existing customer if they can't be sold to a new one) that leaves a mere three to six frames left to allocate in the build order.
Surprisingly the Intercontinental has the stronger backlog right now. I still expect the Arik Air orders to be officially cancelled sometime in the future, and four of those frames are already built, so that leaves a backlog of about twenty frames to build.
With an official sales total of a big fat negative one frame for 2014, and about 1 1/2 years of backlog to build at the current build rate, Boeing needs to make things happen. For better or worse, there's going to have to be some substantial 747-8 news coming from them in the near term.
Monday, June 30, 2014
Project Ozark Lives
The 1500th 747 delivery came and went without much fanfare. That was disappointing to me. But...
More news of orders for the 747-8, specifically for the Intercontinental, are mentioned in this Aviation Week article. The article makes the 747-8, more than ever, sound like a continuous work in progress to eke out better and better economics. As far as I know, this is a new style of business for Boeing. The first 747-400s performed about as well as the ones that rolled out 10+ years later.
Lufthansa says the aircraft is meeting original specs, but they want more. Boeing seems willing to bend over backwards to keep the model in production. They've removed 9,000 pounds, and they want to remove more. They want to raise MTOW over a million pounds, and they want to extend real world range over 8,200 nautical miles. These are all part of Project Ozark, which is Boeing's program name covering all of these continued improvements.
Leeham has once again rained on the parade, with more pragmatic doom and gloom. Let's hope Boeing can prove them wrong.
At least it's good to have so much discussion still going on about the 747. It was getting pretty quiet for a while there, and that's what I found really disconcerting.
More news of orders for the 747-8, specifically for the Intercontinental, are mentioned in this Aviation Week article. The article makes the 747-8, more than ever, sound like a continuous work in progress to eke out better and better economics. As far as I know, this is a new style of business for Boeing. The first 747-400s performed about as well as the ones that rolled out 10+ years later.
Lufthansa says the aircraft is meeting original specs, but they want more. Boeing seems willing to bend over backwards to keep the model in production. They've removed 9,000 pounds, and they want to remove more. They want to raise MTOW over a million pounds, and they want to extend real world range over 8,200 nautical miles. These are all part of Project Ozark, which is Boeing's program name covering all of these continued improvements.
Leeham has once again rained on the parade, with more pragmatic doom and gloom. Let's hope Boeing can prove them wrong.
At least it's good to have so much discussion still going on about the 747. It was getting pretty quiet for a while there, and that's what I found really disconcerting.
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Potential Order Roundup
Rumors, rumors. That's all we seem to get regarding 747-8 orders right now:
- Emirates - Boeing says they're in sales talks with Emirates to sell them 747-8Is. I have a feeling that, like me being in relationship talks with Kate Upton, this is a one sided discussion.
- Asiana - They still fly 747-400 Converted Freighters, and four passenger 747s. While the passenger jets are most likely getting replaced by the "Big Boned" A380, they're reportedly in talks to replace the freighters with 747-8Fs.
- China Airlines - The Taiwanese national carrier is starting to retire their 747-400 fleet this year. They have 31 total active frames, including 18 freighters and 13 passenger frames (including the last 747-400 passenger frame, delivered in 2005 and not even ten years old yet). The passenger frames are being retired for 777s starting at the end of the year, and losing first class. However, they might still order some 747-8Is and Fs to replace some of their long haul fleet. A lot of their 400s, however, are very young (less than twelve years old), and they've already parked three other freighters at the twelve year mark, so my feelings on this are mixed.
- Centurion Air Cargo - They're expanding their fleet with 747-400Fs and supposedly some 747-8Fs
- Lufthansa - I'm hoping for a top up order soon, maybe around the delivery of line 1500. The only evidence I have for this postulation is A.) earlier rumors about a 20th frame back in the order books, and B.) some excitement has to be made of the 1500th 747 being delivered.
- Transaero - Still reported to be negotiating for four more 747-8Is (for a total of eight).
- Turkish - They've mentioned they're considering them before, and their relationship with Lufthansa gives me hope they'll order some 747-8Is after hearing how great they are from their German friends. Maybe they'll join in with Lufthansa on an announcement at the 1500th delivery ceremony. If it happens you'll call me brilliant!
- Delta - After the CEO downplayed four holers, the only hope is that he's bluffing for a lower price from Boeing.
- Etihad - They're still operating one 747-8F (via Atlas ACME) and they haven't said no to the 747-8I yet.
- United - United loses hundreds of millions every quarter anyway. Might as well buy a few 747-8I and fly them half empty! That was a joke!!
Thursday, January 9, 2014
2013 Orders Update
Update: Fresh out of the paint hanger, line 1493 (RC641) GECAS's first frame is headed for Azerbaijan based Silk Way Airlines as 4K-SW881. This means GECAS's second probably is too. Silk Way was supposed to be in the market for four 747-8Fs, so this does make sense, as they have two more later frames already likely allocated.
It seems more and more likely that the two unidentified 747-8I orders are the last two frames for Air China (frames six and seven), so I don't think they'll end up being a big surprise when revealed.
As an addendum to the 2013 wrap up post, final orders for 2013 stand at 17 gross, 12 net (taking into account the five 747-8Fs cancelled by Dubai Aerospace Enterprise in August). Hopefully most cancellations have been shaken from the tree now, so going forward gross orders will equal net orders.
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| Photo by Matt Cawby |
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It seems more and more likely that the two unidentified 747-8I orders are the last two frames for Air China (frames six and seven), so I don't think they'll end up being a big surprise when revealed.
As an addendum to the 2013 wrap up post, final orders for 2013 stand at 17 gross, 12 net (taking into account the five 747-8Fs cancelled by Dubai Aerospace Enterprise in August). Hopefully most cancellations have been shaken from the tree now, so going forward gross orders will equal net orders.
And this post is really just an excuse to post a sequence of 787 line 25 returning from her extremely belated first flight this morning. I remember this frame sitting for an eternity, taped up on the tower apron, but look at her now.
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Certifiable
Thanks to 747Classic over at airliners.net, we now know that the new 747-8 (including all airframe and engine modifications) has been certified by the FAA on December 10th, 2013. This is excellent, if overdue news. Most importantly it means Boeing can start delivering their backlog of new frames, and the first ones up should be three for Cathay and one for Korean Air Cargo. The other two frames slated for delivery this month to ABC and NCA are using the older engine/airframe combos, as far as I know.
Read the certification here.
Read the certification here.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Holy Crap, 747-8s Are Quiet.
Live blogging from the road!
I'm at LAX waiting for my flight (PAL flight 103, 747-400 line 1012 RP-C7472), at the Tom Bradley complex, gate 156, which is at the south end. My flight pulls up and I'm admiring how awesome 747s are in person, and a couple jets are taking off just to the side of me on runway 25R making the usual racket. Suddenly I catch this long ass ghost ship 747 race by and lift up into the air in the dark, and I look closely to see Cathay livery. It's dark so I can't see the tail number, but I looked it up on FlightRadar (because FlightAware is busted) and it's B-LJD. So not only am I stoked to see one of my overdue delivery frames take off in person 100 yards away, but I can't believe how quiet it was. I mean it was like a Tesla just drove by or something. No hyperbole, that was amazing. Unfortunately I wasn't quick enough to get a pic. But here's my ride:
Now I'm in the International Lounge feeling like royalty, with free food and drinks, far away from all the smelly proletarians. I could get used to this Business Class thing...
I'm at LAX waiting for my flight (PAL flight 103, 747-400 line 1012 RP-C7472), at the Tom Bradley complex, gate 156, which is at the south end. My flight pulls up and I'm admiring how awesome 747s are in person, and a couple jets are taking off just to the side of me on runway 25R making the usual racket. Suddenly I catch this long ass ghost ship 747 race by and lift up into the air in the dark, and I look closely to see Cathay livery. It's dark so I can't see the tail number, but I looked it up on FlightRadar (because FlightAware is busted) and it's B-LJD. So not only am I stoked to see one of my overdue delivery frames take off in person 100 yards away, but I can't believe how quiet it was. I mean it was like a Tesla just drove by or something. No hyperbole, that was amazing. Unfortunately I wasn't quick enough to get a pic. But here's my ride:
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| Philippine Airlines line 1012, RP-C7472 |
Now I'm in the International Lounge feeling like royalty, with free food and drinks, far away from all the smelly proletarians. I could get used to this Business Class thing...
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