2018 Year in Review (preview)

Good day everybody, now that I'm recovering from a horrendously terrible cold over the holidays there are a couple of updates.

Firstly, the missing 747 has been found misplaced on on a PAE ramp. ;)

https://twitter.com/mattcawby/status/1075180872544903169

Aircraft Data:

LN 1551 747-8F RC 609 ABC MSN 63787 VP-BJS

The other news is that I am announcing my retirement from the Blog forever. 

Just Kidding.

In all seriousness wrapping up this year worth of production is much of a roller coaster as there are only 6 frames.

So either BCA get their act together or I'm leaving.   

Yeah right.

If anything would save the program an order for 40 frames would be good and their is only one place where an order that would come from. 

Emirates.

I don't know the reasons for them not buying, and this issue has been tied to the new 777 models, but this airline has the daily demand, the network and throughput to justify such an order, just that they never did. 

Now this airline has over leveraged the 777 production to how fast can they get them with so many orders  stacked up it quite reasonable to assume if anything goes wrong then their position becomes untenable and just like the competition across the pond they too have an over leveraged program dependent on 1 customer, a customer that demands much and sits on top of the food chain as a near monopoly. 

Dictating to the World that they control the business and their reach where possible is to show that no stone is left upturned that shouldn't . 

Is this  the Emirates that we  know. The Airline that Single handedly killed the 747. Not even offering to buy its latest freighter versions, instead pushing to develop a twin smaller in size an perhaps even less capable, with no freight option and putting up costs as the benchmark, yet till this day I have not seen an honest appraisal  with real world comparisons. 

Yes its likely that 2019 will be more of the same chewed out leftovers from previous years, covered with more 'economical truths'and more potential customers shunted away to the new 2 engine wonder works of tomorrow leaving the Queen sit in the coffin whilst the nails are being fastened all around. 

Oh and Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

The fast, the good and the cheap: A summary of a salesman's glasses.

The year is now at an end In a short few days wrappers will become refuse, turkey dinners demolished and the full awfulness of sock drawers will be explored on Christmas day.

2018 has been somewhat kind to he Queen, getting 17 commitments albeit from familiar faces. The fact that there are new orders is a sign that the market still sees value in the Queen as a product but for how long and at what price.

Whether we like it or not, every product big, small, simple or complicated is subject to the 3 pillars of popularity.

Is it Fast?
Is it Good?
Is it Cheap?

Fast meaning how fast can we get it, Good meaning how good or how much better it is and Cheap meaning is the price attractive.

All products have only a combination of 2 out of 3 Only a very, very few good products have all 3 in good measure and their success is entirely based on the continuation of that paradigm. Any product that has less than 2 is obviously not popular.

Now we can argue about what this means relative to our internal processes or our product, but the rule isn't about what the manufacturer sees but what the Customer thinks of it and it is this opinion that makes the product popular.

Take the 737,

It is a Good Product. In fact it is arguably the Best.
It can be obtained in significant quantities in relatively short periods of time.
It is financed and priced attractively offering its buyers an opportunity at making profits.

Is the same applicable to the 747?

How could you apply these rules to something like this and where would you begin?

I have always speculated on here what improvements should be sought after in airplane terms and based solely on my perspective. Maybe more range or better operational efficiency, or lower cost of operation. There are a plethora of different things that could be pursued provided there is a will to do it.

Perhaps this isn't a question we here should answer. Those involved with this airplane program will know better, but as always we can only speculate with fervor.

As for the future, it may turn out not to be as cut and dried as we imagine. A new customer, placing a big order sparking rumors of a rate increase, newer models, and a brighter outlook  This is what the program needs but not necessarily what will be obtained in the end.

Lets see what else the future will bring, if anything at all.

Firing Order Update.

The Firing  order doe 2019 is available here:

https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1322455&page=156

There are other details in that post, most notably the reg. for the sole ABC frame in a sea of UPS.

Still missing is  the emergence of the last 747 of 2018.

 No Christmas presents yet, because its not Christmas Already. ;)

Have fun.

747 missing from Everett

If your looking for the last frame of the year, and is still holding your breath, then disappointment looms as it looks like its no where to be found.

I'm sure its there, maybe wrapped in paper and their looking for a large enough tree to park it under.

Stay tuned.