The Chart:

Thursday, December 27, 2018

2018 Year in Review (preview)

Good day everybody, now that I'm recovering from a horrendously terrible cold over the holidays there are a couple of updates.

Firstly, the missing 747 has been found misplaced on on a PAE ramp. ;)

https://twitter.com/mattcawby/status/1075180872544903169

Aircraft Data:

LN 1551 747-8F RC 609 ABC MSN 63787 VP-BJS

The other news is that I am announcing my retirement from the Blog forever. 

Just Kidding.

In all seriousness wrapping up this year worth of production is much of a roller coaster as there are only 6 frames.

So either BCA get their act together or I'm leaving.   

Yeah right.

If anything would save the program an order for 40 frames would be good and their is only one place where an order that would come from. 

Emirates.

I don't know the reasons for them not buying, and this issue has been tied to the new 777 models, but this airline has the daily demand, the network and throughput to justify such an order, just that they never did. 

Now this airline has over leveraged the 777 production to how fast can they get them with so many orders  stacked up it quite reasonable to assume if anything goes wrong then their position becomes untenable and just like the competition across the pond they too have an over leveraged program dependent on 1 customer, a customer that demands much and sits on top of the food chain as a near monopoly. 

Dictating to the World that they control the business and their reach where possible is to show that no stone is left upturned that shouldn't . 

Is this  the Emirates that we  know. The Airline that Single handedly killed the 747. Not even offering to buy its latest freighter versions, instead pushing to develop a twin smaller in size an perhaps even less capable, with no freight option and putting up costs as the benchmark, yet till this day I have not seen an honest appraisal  with real world comparisons. 

Yes its likely that 2019 will be more of the same chewed out leftovers from previous years, covered with more 'economical truths'and more potential customers shunted away to the new 2 engine wonder works of tomorrow leaving the Queen sit in the coffin whilst the nails are being fastened all around. 

Oh and Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.



Sunday, December 23, 2018

The fast, the good and the cheap: A summary of a salesman's glasses.

The year is now at an end In a short few days wrappers will become refuse, turkey dinners demolished and the full awfulness of sock drawers will be explored on Christmas day.

2018 has been somewhat kind to he Queen, getting 17 commitments albeit from familiar faces. The fact that there are new orders is a sign that the market still sees value in the Queen as a product but for how long and at what price.

Whether we like it or not, every product big, small, simple or complicated is subject to the 3 pillars of popularity.

Is it Fast?
Is it Good?
Is it Cheap?

Fast meaning how fast can we get it, Good meaning how good or how much better it is and Cheap meaning is the price attractive.

All products have only a combination of 2 out of 3 Only a very, very few good products have all 3 in good measure and their success is entirely based on the continuation of that paradigm. Any product that has less than 2 is obviously not popular.

Now we can argue about what this means relative to our internal processes or our product, but the rule isn't about what the manufacturer sees but what the Customer thinks of it and it is this opinion that makes the product popular.

Take the 737,

It is a Good Product. In fact it is arguably the Best.
It can be obtained in significant quantities in relatively short periods of time.
It is financed and priced attractively offering its buyers an opportunity at making profits.

Is the same applicable to the 747?

How could you apply these rules to something like this and where would you begin?

I have always speculated on here what improvements should be sought after in airplane terms and based solely on my perspective. Maybe more range or better operational efficiency, or lower cost of operation. There are a plethora of different things that could be pursued provided there is a will to do it.

Perhaps this isn't a question we here should answer. Those involved with this airplane program will know better, but as always we can only speculate with fervor.

As for the future, it may turn out not to be as cut and dried as we imagine. A new customer, placing a big order sparking rumors of a rate increase, newer models, and a brighter outlook  This is what the program needs but not necessarily what will be obtained in the end.

Lets see what else the future will bring, if anything at all.










Friday, December 14, 2018

Firing Order Update.

The Firing  order doe 2019 is available here:

https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1322455&page=156

There are other details in that post, most notably the reg. for the sole ABC frame in a sea of UPS.

Still missing is  the emergence of the last 747 of 2018.

 No Christmas presents yet, because its not Christmas Already. ;)

Have fun.

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

747 missing from Everett

If your looking for the last frame of the year, and is still holding your breath, then disappointment looms as it looks like its no where to be found.

I'm sure its there, maybe wrapped in paper and their looking for a large enough tree to park it under.

Stay tuned.

Monday, November 26, 2018

Next Years Firing Order.

Now that Black Friday is water under the bridge, the end of November is in sight and the last month of 2018 looms. Its time to take a look at the firing order for 2019. Here is what I've collected so far:

LN 1552 747-8F RC 539 UPS MSN 64260 N614UP

LN 1553 747-8F RC 540 UPS MSN 64261 N615UP

LN 1554 747-8F RC 541 UPS MSN 64262 N616UP

As can be seen there is no info for the last 3 frames for the Year and if  anyone has this info please post that in a comment below.

As for the last frame for 2018 rollout should be right around the corner with subsequent test flights and paintwork before delivery in January. The aircraft details are below:

LN 1551 747-8F RC 609 ABC MSN 63787 Reg Unknown

Also there was a very special aircraft that made an appearance over California in the last 2 weeks. The Global supertanker and its crew worked feverishly to help stop the wildfires that kill 84 people, but one wonders why there isn't more of them seeing that there are plenty of candidates sitting out in the desert idle. Also here are the aircraft details for hat machine.

LN 885 747-446BCF GSS MSN 25308 N744ST

Thank you to all the readers and have a nice day.

Thursday, November 8, 2018

Next frame for UPS set for delivery.

Probably the last frame to be delivered this year, N613UP was pictured at the Everett delivery center Nov 7th.

http://paineairport.com/kpae16635fv.htm

The last frame for 2018 should Rollout late this month or early next month with delivery possibly early in Jan 2019.

KPAE will wind down for the holidays in December, but until then, we still have the whole of this month and if there are any last minute surprises, as far as sales go, lets hope there is some Christmas presents.

In other news of course, someone bent a 747F in Halifax:

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4uT4ZClweo

Aircraft Details:

https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/Boeing/747/N908AR-Sky-Lease-Cargo/8O4nIPW7

Gesundheit.

Thank You and have a nice day.

Friday, November 2, 2018

N613UP returns from Portland

The next frame for UPS has apparently returned from PDX.

Aircraft Data:

LN 1550 747-8F RC 538 UPS MSN 64259 N613UP.

No pictures just yet but I suppose these will appear soon.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Next Frame for UPS has performed its 1st Flight

According to the link below, the next frame for UPS has completed its B1 test flight.

http://paineairport.com/kpae16541qf.htm

Airframe details:

LN 1550 747-8F RC 538 UPS MSN 64259 N613UP.

The next step will be painting, most likely at PDX, with delivery scheduled early Nov 2018. 

The following frame, is  next in the assembly line:

LN 1551 747-8F RC 609 ABC MSN 63787 Reg Unknown

Delivery is likely to be in Early Jan 2019

Also a big Thank You to the readers and Anybody with details like reg or end User would be appreciated, as well as any updates on firing order.


Saturday, October 6, 2018

Some Updates.

TC-TRK the new Turkish Air Force one has been revealed.

https://twitter.com/AnalystTK/status/1048157837015339009

Also a video showing the next UPS Frame was published on Youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyzngZtICCw&feature=youtu.be

Expect soon a B1 flight and transfer to PDX for painting.


Saturday, September 29, 2018

A box of chocolates.

Now that everyone is looking the other way, Yesterday a significant aviation milestone went by without notice.

Of course I'm talking about this event:








The first roll out of the 747 was a modern historic milestone that marked the beginning of Mass Air Travel Today it is 50 years since that day and what a good idea it would be to have the next frame for UPS be rolled out to celebrate the occasion.

Well life is like a box of chocolates, and if the sour quince log is the last piece in the box, it is still coated with chocolate. I hope that this isn't the case, and there are as many or as  few pieces left, as long as there are people willing to see it that way.

In the 50 years since it was revealed, the 747 laid the foundation of Today's Market, a benchmark that was unrivaled until 2005. Even if Airbus retains the lions share of the VLA market in the future, it is scant reward considering how the market has almost made quads like the 747 irrelevant, by selecting smaller types to 'de-fragment' the hub and spoke system of yesteryear.

Yet even if we are unwilling to acknowledge its many achievements, the 747 is indeed a masterful piece of industrial Art for it time, built with Slide Rules and drafted blueprints not Autocad, rendered with a Physical Mockup not a 3D CGI and all in 5 years , whilst the Walls of BCA's PAE  factory was being built around it. The Jet spent the Winter in 1968, outside in the snow as BCA rushed to prepare it for its first flight.

This winter, however  a new journey will begin, with BCA now looking forward to revealing the first 779 frame sometime before years end, if indeed that is where the program now stands.

Certainly then, the spotlight will fall on the latter and the Queen will have to take a backseat into the New Year. There may be future commitments for the 747, but the market has moved on and away from its necessity and soon it may be its last year of production.

Until that time, may we all celebrate its longevity.

' Long Live The Queen Of the Skies'

And Thank You to all The Readers.



                                                         picture Copyright Boeing. Co

Friday, September 28, 2018

Next frame should be out soon....

Here are some details for the next frame to roll out

LN 1550 747-8F RC 538 UPS MSN 64259 N613UP

I'm guessing a delivery in November, which would mean that the last frame for 2018 is for ABC with delivery possibly before or after the holidays, late 2018 ir early in the New Year. 2019. Of course no confirmations yet,

As for the Turkish thing, reg is reported to be TC-TRK with the details for this frame in the last post. 

Of course, the focus on PAE this coming winter will be on some other aircraft, so no limelight on the Queen this Christmas. Unless Santa Has a present that is.

Saturday, September 22, 2018

Flying Kabobs.

VQ-BSK formerly of the Qatar Amiri Flight has been sold recently to the Turkish Government it's expected to become the Turkish President's Flying Palace, a fitting purchase for a large country sitting in the middle of the World.

Here is some info on the Aircraft in question. 

VQ-BSK LN 1468 MSN 42096 RC008 

New Reg has been reported but No pics so far. 

Now onto something a little bit more serious as all kabobs have skewers and the skewers in question come in the form of numbers and number analysis. We've all read comparison charts about performance and fuel consumption many many times and everybody agrees that at the current 747-8 is a Lemon. Yes it is sour and sadly deserves its place in the dustbin of failed products produced and sold at a whim.

But wait. 

There were sources out there that were saying that the fuel burn per seat of the 747-8 was better than the A380, 777-300ER or even the 777x models. In fact there was a graphic showing how the 747-8 had the 'BEST' fuel economy of any VLA and it even beat out the 777x models to boot. 

Really?

It all stems from a numbering exercise that BCA performed several  years ago adopting newer seating standards across their range of products. Some people distinctly remember back when the seating capacity of the 747-8i was 467 seats not the 405 seat figure we see today. Well as it turns out I got a little shock when I saw he number for myself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_economy_in_aircraft
To quote:

747-8,  467 seats, 6,000 nm mission,  10.54 kg/km  or 2.82 L/100 km per seat.

747-8,  405 seats, 7,200 nm mission,  10.9 kg/km  or 3.35 L/100 km per seat.

A380,   544 seats,  6,000 nm mission,  13.78 kg/km  or 3.16 L/100 km per seat

77W,   365 seats, 6,000 nm mission,  8.49 kg/km or 2.91 L/100 km per seat

779x     385 seats, 7,200 nmi  mission,  9.04 kg/km or 2.85 L/100 km per seat   (not shure abt dis one)

Are these numbers lying? Go check out the various as quoted sources from the original page in the footnotes. 

Basically it says that flying around a 747-8i with only 400 seats is not eco-friendly but check out the numbers of the other types one of them a twin seating about 100 less passengers. 

So in short, Airlines bought other aircraft because they didn't like 18 wheelers but bent over and bought 22 wheelers and 14 wheelers because the wheels were just rounder than the ones on the 18 wheeler. 

Seriously what are all the people doing looking at fixed numbers analysis based on numbers and stats rigged to prove that lemons are sour if they are yellow and not sour when their orange. Given that none of the Airlines that bought the other quad operates that aircraft close to the capacity as stated above one wonders what the real figures are, because I suppose you cant take ANY numbers for granted these days.

Can you say skew-ered? 

I can. Have a great weekend.



Sunday, September 16, 2018

747 CMCA: It was good then and should be even better now.

I've not researched this but here are several links to a proposed military 747 model that was rejected in favor of other solutions. I've not seen any real material on this, but supposedly if it was made into a real program, it could add a significant number of frames.

Also there need not be any in house work as the interior could be subcontracted to a vendor and all BCA has to do is build frames for the purposes of conversion. Of course the standard certification rules apply for this proposal and a test and certification program will be necessary to approve changes.

The down side is that anything military might have a negative public image, and that slot allocation might be affected because there might be a priority assigned to each frame built for the Air Force, making civilian buyers having to accept a longer waiting period.

Costs according to the Articles are 15% of a B-52 refit and the combat payload would be more than a B-52.

Links are below:

https://metro.co.uk/2016/01/23/these-plans-show-boeings-proposal-to-put-dozens-of-missiles-in-a-747-5639423/

https://www.quora.com/Instead-of-putting-new-engines-on-the-B-52-or-buying-the-expensive-B-21-Raider-why-doesnt-the-Air-Force-procure-a-B-52I-with-modern-technology

http://cmano-db.com/pdf/aircraft/3729/

Saturday, September 8, 2018

The Great and the Good.

Now that the latest installment of the 747 has been delivered to UPS:

(L/N 1549 - 747-8F, RC537, UPS# 9,  N612UP MSN 64258):

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UPS9105  :

Its worthwhile to note that one more frame has been removed from the backlog and is now part of the active fleet and  as the first manifestations of the 779 have appeared at PAE, one is left with this surreal feeling  of missed opportunities and vacuous disappointment. 

There are many things about being a sales person, firstly its about the customers and the product and making the two meet eye to eye. A successful salespersons knows their customers, their habits, their tendencies but mostly a customer, any customer is a person with a problem and you are the person with the solution.

Even if there is not a deal signed on your desk at days closure, you still need to focus on the task of being that person and on or off the bat, even deals in the trashcan need close scrutiny as the the reasons for failure. Its just part of the job, and helps in focusing in more on what the customer really wants. 

I'm sure that BCA did its homework when it came to thhe 748 and to critique them for trying to make a goose lay Golden eggs isn't constructive in the slightest. Its easy to point the finger and say wisecracks in hindsight and I've done it many a time. Of course, that still isn't the level of scrutiny necessary to finish the task, just putting the commercial package out to pasture is only one step in building a better relationship with the customer. 

Many a time I've asked, using my salespersons glasses, what if there was a better baseline spec of the 747-8i available? What if there was an engine choice? How come there isn't more range, or better avionics, or improved cabin designs, etc etc. 

The thing is, is that the ship has sailed, and all those failed offers to those customers need to be picked apart. So it failed, but by how much. Where did the customer get left behind, why, so on so forth. In the many books I've read about The Boeing Company, I read that they only pick America's Best and Brightest and the search for a better system and better solution to a problem was always their unwavering commitment 

The incredible things they built with this commitment include of course, this 747 program, which unlike the SST, the TFX or even the Moon Landings or anything else from that era, has stood the test of time. 

Perhaps of course, their greatest achievement is to continue with it, for all intents and purposes even when the last person to leave is switching the lights off.




Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Next UPS 747 emerges at Portland.

If you have not seen it here it is.

https://www.airliners.net/photo/United-Parcel-Service-UPS/Boeing-747-8F/5164267/L

It will be flown to Everett for storage soon, delivery in September. Here are some details:

L/N 1549 - 747-8F, RC537, UPS# 9,  N612UP MSN 64258

Thank you to all the readers.

Saturday, August 25, 2018

To Fly is to serve (A salesman's perspective).

It is not a secret that a certain British Airline is now the largest operator of 747-400's in the world with Current calls for complete replacement in 2023 with a gradual phase out of this sizable fleet of four holers

British Airways have built their core around a highly congested hub, infested with plenty of competitors and there is nothing conventional about an Airline which maintains a contingency of using bigger planes to get around all the slot restrictions. Despite the problems, BA frequently fills can after can of Self Loaders to and from the bottomless pit that is LHR.

Is there is a unique window of opportunity here? All of BA's Jumbo humps are exclusive to Club World on all 3 configurations, with the Nose being F class only. Whilst this is nothing new,  there is the onerous fan club of BA's Club World Seats on such humps, an experience that some say is unbeatable even with an A380.

Also with a little tweaking, the 748 can  do LHR-PER and back all year round, add commonality with the outgoing fleet in terms of training, economics of scale in terms of spares for selected parts and of course if BCA are willing to throw in Rolls engines into a package there might be an outside chance in hell that it might get a serious second look.

Costs aside, the 748 will offer BA big capacity on the route that QF now monopolizes with a high density seating configuration, but its premium that the Airline will be offering. A revamped J or F class product on a platform tweaked to do LHR-PER with Y class seats 1 order of magnitude bigger that QF might just give the Roos a run for their money.

There is however no chance that the Devil's frozen hand will ink this deal, but a pipe dream is what its worth.

Even if its only worth 2 cents.

Friday, August 24, 2018

Ex Jade Cargo 747 set to re-enter service.

The freshly repainted 747-400F formerly of Jade Cargo Airlines Reg  B-2422 MSN 35173 looks set to rejoin the active fleet after more than 6 years in storage.

https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/Boeing/747/B-2422-Jade-Cargo-International/a2B7IBy0

Built in late 2006, the aircraft is 11 years old but has a flying career much shorter than that having been withdrawn in 2011 after less than 5 years in operation.

There are more examples out there of resurrected jumbos but this one seems to underscore the vast amount of wasted potential during the last 10 years of economic stagflation since the 2008 financial crisis. However strong economic numbers from the air freight market with recent freighter orders is underpinning the resurgence of the Queen.

In other news The latest 747 off the line flew to Portland last week for its paint job. Delivery is due September, so the aircraft will be returning to PAE in the near future.

Saturday, August 18, 2018

RISK: A four letter word

Now that IAI has considered restarting P2F conversions,

https://www.mro-network.com/maintenance-repair-overhaul/iai-seeing-demand-cargo-conversions

The demand for 747s in the marketplace is increased beyond even what I thought it would be. The market needs the large freighter and The recent FAS 2018 orders for 777F frames just proves this  This is all good news for everybody except of course one player: BCA.

For many years BCA have competed tooth and nail with the second hand market and whilst this latest announcement will not add pressure for a rate increase airlines which want in will have their backs against the walls if there is no availability of conversions which are lower cost and carry less risk.

IAI have made a smart move, even if they are not the best vendor out there, this move will highlight to BCA just what is out there in terms of demand to what I consider nowadays an airplane program on life support. If this goes ahead, one should ask how many of those conversions would have been new frames? Worse still if you consider their corporate position on this topic its clear that they are not interested in any kind of rate increase (that costs them money), for a program that is now supposedly putting out its last gasps of air.

BCA  now considers 2 engines not 4 as the future, and built an airplane that was low cost and low risk for airlines. However by doing this and progressively shifting their position (like a rattlesnake) they have now come to the position whereby it is in their best interest to abandon anything or anyone in areas where this risk is an unavoidable fact of life, and the main deck freight market is just such a victim. Expect them not to even be bothered with this latest announcement or even show a flicker of surprise.

4 engines? That was 1960's stuff.

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

RC 537 UPS#9 B1 Flight.

Yesterday on 14th Aug 2018 the 8th frame for UPS perfomed its B1 flight to Moses Lake.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/n612up

Tracking shows the Aircraft did several patterns before returning to PAE.

Also a Firing order update for those of you who haven't seen it (me included).

LN 1550 747-8F RC 538 UPS MSN 64259 N613UP

http://registry.faa.gov/aircraftinquiry ... rtxt=613UP

LN 1551 747-8F RC 609 ABC MSN 63787 Reg Unknown

LN 1552 747-8F RC 539 UPS MSN 64260 N614UP

LN 1553 747-8F RC 540 UPS MSN 64261 N615UP

LN 1554 747-8F RC 541 UPS MSN 64262 N616UP

This should complete the initial order for UPS Frames. I suspect that the next frame in the order might be for VDA as the Commitment was made earlier, as part of ABC's original 20 frame LOI, BUT I could be wrong.

Expect in the next few days for LN 1549 to head to PDX or disappear into a PAE paint hangar.

Good day :)

Saturday, August 11, 2018

Ninth frame for UPS Rolled Out.

As per plane guy's post in the the old active thread, the Next UPS Frame has rolled out.

http://paineairport.com/2018_08_07dm.htm


Delivery is expected in Early October,. 

Here are some details.

L/N 1549 - 747-8F, RC537, UPS# 9,  N612UP  Msn ???.

Details getting very sketchy as  the last frame to be delivered this year is probably due early December. Firing Order for next year has not been revealed (at least to me), and I;d expect another carrier(s) (not UPS) frames will be in that line up. 

Once again Thanks to plane guy for his link.


Friday, August 10, 2018

Yes it Works.

Thanks for the invite. Will keep you all posted.Will post an article soon. Stay tuned and thanks for the readers support.

Hey Charlie

I added you as a poster. See if it work?