The Chart:

Saturday, August 18, 2018

RISK: A four letter word

Now that IAI has considered restarting P2F conversions,

https://www.mro-network.com/maintenance-repair-overhaul/iai-seeing-demand-cargo-conversions

The demand for 747s in the marketplace is increased beyond even what I thought it would be. The market needs the large freighter and The recent FAS 2018 orders for 777F frames just proves this  This is all good news for everybody except of course one player: BCA.

For many years BCA have competed tooth and nail with the second hand market and whilst this latest announcement will not add pressure for a rate increase airlines which want in will have their backs against the walls if there is no availability of conversions which are lower cost and carry less risk.

IAI have made a smart move, even if they are not the best vendor out there, this move will highlight to BCA just what is out there in terms of demand to what I consider nowadays an airplane program on life support. If this goes ahead, one should ask how many of those conversions would have been new frames? Worse still if you consider their corporate position on this topic its clear that they are not interested in any kind of rate increase (that costs them money), for a program that is now supposedly putting out its last gasps of air.

BCA  now considers 2 engines not 4 as the future, and built an airplane that was low cost and low risk for airlines. However by doing this and progressively shifting their position (like a rattlesnake) they have now come to the position whereby it is in their best interest to abandon anything or anyone in areas where this risk is an unavoidable fact of life, and the main deck freight market is just such a victim. Expect them not to even be bothered with this latest announcement or even show a flicker of surprise.

4 engines? That was 1960's stuff.

No comments:

Post a Comment