The Chart:

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

The fable of Mighty Queens and Whales.

If you have been placing your ears to the ground you will know already the Bad News.

If anything the trends were clear many years ago, even before there was any talk of the Whale ever flying. It was the sour grapes of not having a product at the top of the scale that made them do it. In all of the RFP's leading up to the launch of the Whale there was one product they couldn't build and couldn't compete with and they sorely wanted to have their market share believing that the segment would remain forever.

It vanished into thin air.

Then there was the builder of the Queen of the skies, who tried desperately to keep it relevant, who had to stick to its guns on a runaway program that certain quarters liked and others hated. Paying the price for that victory meant that you had to live with its pitfalls for the lifespan of its existence. A price that they are still paying today, despite its successes.

There was no way out for them. Its triumph was tainted by the enormous cost of running the program, producing a product that was so highly leveraged, that was famous the world over and created the false appearance of roaring victory..

In fact nothing could be further from the truth.

Deep in their heart of hearts were men trying to push the envelope. Going from iteration to iteration and trying all sorts of permutations and combinations. They were building at the edge of their limits trying to make mountains of gold from the small  molehills of efficiency that technology could yield to them.

In the end it was bunk. 'Lets not build for the market, lets create that market for ourselves' they said and so began the journey that led them to where they are today.

The Queen of the skies had already sailed into the sunset even before the Whale could be rolled of of her hangar, but it was the prestige and status of being the keeper of the Crown that kept her builder believing in the legend, whilst soaking up all that steam not realizing the true cost of it all.

There is something very poetic in all of this, that if you cannot be satisfied with all you have gained, then there is no limit to how much you have already lost. As for the Builder of the Queen the Skies, its reign comes at a price, a price that only its builder can afford to pay.

Thursday, January 31, 2019

Something strange.??

As information about this program has been slow down the pipeline, its difficult to gauge what the state of the program is thus far. 2018's last frame is to b  delivered next month and every 2 months a frame leaves the factory.

Really?

There has been no news of a rate increase, but there has been news about the next 2 frames.

L/N 1552, 747-8F, RC539, UPS, serial number 64260, N614UP, del March 2019

L/N 1553, 747-8F, RC540, UPS, serial number 64261, N615UP, del April 2019

http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411909

Now let's see, Frame delivered this month: Yes.
Next Month: Yes
Following Month: Yes

So it look like the rate has gone up to 1 per month?

Well not exactly, there was a very slow Christmas period and this might be the taking up of slack after the New Year. As I recall the last frame of 2018 could have have been delivered in Early January, but the holiday season and late roll out and flight test of that last frame has knocked the schedule a little bit. 

I would expect things to return to normal one the year gets into full swing as some people still haven't sobered up yet over the last 30 days. 

Have fun.

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

LN 1551 B1 Flight

VP-BJS The last frame for 2018 performed its B1 Flight on 21st  Jan.

https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/1087451015287267328

Aircraft details:

LN 1551 747-8F RC 609 ABC MSN 63787 VP-BJS

Delivery is expected in February so expect the frame to PDX for painting soon.

The slow pace of the work completion is reflective of the low rate with priority being placed elsewhere and delivery dates and scheduled work sandwiched by lots of slack time. Nevertheless the next frame and the first for 2019 is already on a slant position. Details of that frame are as follows:

LN 1552 747-8F RC 539 UPS MSN 64260 N614UP

Thank You and have a nice day.

Saturday, January 19, 2019

Thursday, December 27, 2018

2018 Year in Review (preview)

Good day everybody, now that I'm recovering from a horrendously terrible cold over the holidays there are a couple of updates.

Firstly, the missing 747 has been found misplaced on on a PAE ramp. ;)

https://twitter.com/mattcawby/status/1075180872544903169

Aircraft Data:

LN 1551 747-8F RC 609 ABC MSN 63787 VP-BJS

The other news is that I am announcing my retirement from the Blog forever. 

Just Kidding.

In all seriousness wrapping up this year worth of production is much of a roller coaster as there are only 6 frames.

So either BCA get their act together or I'm leaving.   

Yeah right.

If anything would save the program an order for 40 frames would be good and their is only one place where an order that would come from. 

Emirates.

I don't know the reasons for them not buying, and this issue has been tied to the new 777 models, but this airline has the daily demand, the network and throughput to justify such an order, just that they never did. 

Now this airline has over leveraged the 777 production to how fast can they get them with so many orders  stacked up it quite reasonable to assume if anything goes wrong then their position becomes untenable and just like the competition across the pond they too have an over leveraged program dependent on 1 customer, a customer that demands much and sits on top of the food chain as a near monopoly. 

Dictating to the World that they control the business and their reach where possible is to show that no stone is left upturned that shouldn't . 

Is this  the Emirates that we  know. The Airline that Single handedly killed the 747. Not even offering to buy its latest freighter versions, instead pushing to develop a twin smaller in size an perhaps even less capable, with no freight option and putting up costs as the benchmark, yet till this day I have not seen an honest appraisal  with real world comparisons. 

Yes its likely that 2019 will be more of the same chewed out leftovers from previous years, covered with more 'economical truths'and more potential customers shunted away to the new 2 engine wonder works of tomorrow leaving the Queen sit in the coffin whilst the nails are being fastened all around. 

Oh and Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.