Update: Fresh out of the paint hanger, line 1493 (RC641) GECAS's first frame is headed for Azerbaijan based Silk Way Airlines as 4K-SW881. This means GECAS's second probably is too. Silk Way was supposed to be in the market for four 747-8Fs, so this does make sense, as they have two more later frames already likely allocated.
It seems more and more likely that the two unidentified 747-8I orders are the last two frames for Air China (frames six and seven), so I don't think they'll end up being a big surprise when revealed.
As an addendum to the 2013 wrap up post, final orders for 2013 stand at 17 gross, 12 net (taking into account the five 747-8Fs cancelled by Dubai Aerospace Enterprise in August). Hopefully most cancellations have been shaken from the tree now, so going forward gross orders will equal net orders.
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| Photo by Matt Cawby |
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It seems more and more likely that the two unidentified 747-8I orders are the last two frames for Air China (frames six and seven), so I don't think they'll end up being a big surprise when revealed.
As an addendum to the 2013 wrap up post, final orders for 2013 stand at 17 gross, 12 net (taking into account the five 747-8Fs cancelled by Dubai Aerospace Enterprise in August). Hopefully most cancellations have been shaken from the tree now, so going forward gross orders will equal net orders.
And this post is really just an excuse to post a sequence of 787 line 25 returning from her extremely belated first flight this morning. I remember this frame sitting for an eternity, taped up on the tower apron, but look at her now.
Ho ho. Silk Way!
ReplyDeletehttp://paineairport.com/kpae10037.htm
surprise, surprise, surprise. More questions than answers.
DeleteCurious indeed. I wonder if this really is a GECAS frame, or if there has been some shuffling of the firing order, or if we were right to still have a question mark next to these frames and what we assumed were the later Silk Way frames.
DeleteMatt uploaded photo in daylight:
Deletehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/microvolt/11882303843/
Best Looking Freighter so far, definitely better than the NCA colors and a lot more interesting than Cargolux.... now if only we could see more liveries on the ~8I.......:(
DeleteTurtleLuv, short story of B787 LN25 VT-ANA:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=110383155&postcount=3214
a masterfully forged tribute :) thanks
DeleteThat is not the only one of course, LN18 is in the EMC.
DeleteI will try to do something like that for every still left early frame.
DeleteLN34 B-2725 http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=110383155&postcount=3214
LN36 B-2726 http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=107235472&postcount=2733
LN32 VT-ANG http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=107833600&postcount=2855
LN30 VT-ANE http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=108632452&postcount=2959
LN26 VT-ANB http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=109709201&postcount=3101
LN21 JA823J http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=105969329&postcount=2508
LN20 JA821J http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=107663373&postcount=2827
LN29 ET-AOO http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=105233910&postcount=2342
LOL....your months overdue on some of these...
Deletebut yes it does make for interesting reading.
Thanks
awesome. great pic hunting. Charlie if you'll notice the dates on his posts they were all around times of delivery.
DeleteI messed up url for LN34 B-2725. Correct: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=107438154&postcount=2775
DeleteAnd ET-AOO is LN39, not 29.
I do these posts after first flight and counts months (rather years) till first flight date. The same is with re-work time, I count from moving to EMC to completion of frame (move to fuel dock or flightline)
'Charlie if you'll notice the dates on his posts they were all around times of delivery.'
DeleteWhoops...my bad...
Where do you get your roll-out dates Piotrek? You have logs or just pulling from picture archives?
DeletePhotos, Matt Cawby's blog and mathematic. I usually can't determine accurate day of roll-out (I think nobody from outside can do it, early production of 787s was really mess, they switched positions on FAL, roll-out from FAL to 40-24 for some work, moved planes around PAE and other Brownian motion), but determine of months isn't rather difficult if you now production pace at that time. Add Matt Cawby's photos and blog info and you can tell.
ReplyDeleteThere are now unconfirmed reports that Transaero has ordered 8 not 4 747-8I
ReplyDeleteLink here....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.aerotransport.org/php/go.php?query=operator&qstring=Transaero+Airlines&where=99440&luck=
Yeah, I saw someone remark on that over on the airliners.net thread. While that would be a pleasant surprise, I have a feeling this may be a double-count of the MoU and of the now firmed order. Does anyone know if ATDB.org listed 4 747-8 frames for UN before the most recent order firming?
ReplyDeleteDon't get me wrong, I would LOVE to be wrong and surprised on this one!
I should also state that if ATDB.org did not list the 4 prior to this, then that does reduce the chance that it is a double-count, and that would be good news! Perhaps there will then be another announcement coming early this year.
ReplyDeleteHopefully Yes.
DeleteWell, maybe we were correct in our optimism. I had known that Transaero was looking to expand further, however I didn't know it would be this quickly.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at this article. It is hard to tell by the way it is written, but it almost looks like they are saying that UN is in negotiations specifically for expansion of those listed orders.
http://www.ruaviation.com/news/2013/12/31/2117/
Transaero have put out a tender for expansion, but the article says that is an expansion of previous orders and that this might lead to new orders for the types listed. This is the obvious part. The not so obvious part is not where or how they will find the money to do it, or where they will fly to but in my honest opinion, what are the Macro economic conditions underlying the course of action as deemed o be worthy of another expansion?
ReplyDeleteIt is well known what Links the CEO of Transaero are to the Putin Government. Indeed if anything, there is a possibility (and I speculate of course) that the information that they using to base this decision may come from this insider link. There is obviously a set of numbers that Transaero are looking at that when cross referenced with their own, indicate the likely requirement that they are now tendering for and this is what this article reflects.
This is Good news, but of course it remains to be seen what aeroplane Transaero actually order, If the order is strecthed out Far enough into the future that airplane might not be the 747-8I at all but a 777 derivative that all the other airlines are ordering.