The Chart:

Friday, October 24, 2014

Deliveries Remaining for 2014

With the delivery of line 1489 RC528 JA18KZ to Nippon Cargo (just over a year after roll out!), that brings the total delivery count for 2014 to a meager 14. Here's what to expect for the remainder of the year:
  • Line 1485 JA16KZ should deliver to NCA in late November
  • Line 1487 JA17KZ should deliver to NCA in late December
  • Line 1507 B-2486 should deliver to Air China in November
  • Line 1508 B-2487 should deliver to Air China in December
Which will bring the total delivery count for 2014 to 18 frames; the current manufacturing rate. It's possible a couple more might slip in before 2014 ends, but unlikely.

In other news, a very exciting one year birthday is fast approaching... who could it be? :O

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Who Doesn't Love BBJs

There's been very little noise about them lately, but this recent article provides some update on the status of our (9) 747-8 BBJs. Parsed to correspond with the order of the chart's BBJ tab:

  1. Line 1434: Expected delivery by the end of 2015
  2. Line 1439: Expected delivery by the end of 2014
  3. Line 1440: Expected delivery by the end of 2014
  4. Line 1446: Currently stored and looking for a customer
  5. Line 1449: Expected delivery by the end of 2014 or early 2015
  6. Line 1459: Expected delivery by the end of 2014
  7. Line 1466: Expected delivery by the end of 2014
  8. Line 1468: Expected delivery by the end of 2015 2014(?)
  9. Line 1495: Expected delivery to BBJ early January 2015, so this one should be leaving storage in the next month or two. She'll probably go to Lufthansa Technique in January and deliver to the customer in late 2016.
So, the BBJ chart should start seeing some green by the end of the year. Unfortunately I can't get too excited about BBJs, as I've ranted about what a waste they are before... but I'm sure Boeing loves the money.

UPDATE: BBJ #8 (line 1468 RC008 VQ-BSK) is apparently done. She went up for a test flight and is pending delivery.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Air China #3 First Flight

Line 1508 (RC068) B-2487 for Air China just took off for the first time. She's unpainted, and just rolled out a little over two weeks ago. Quick!

Here's a bunch of pics of a dead spider watching...

Friday, October 3, 2014

GECAS Cancels Two Freighters

Judging by the updated Boeing orders page, two 747-8Fs were cancelled this week, and they must be from GECAS (General Electric Capital Aviation Services). Boeing shows a total backlog of 42 frames, 15 freighters and 27 passenger frames. That gives us:
  • (1) Cathay
  • (9) NCA
  • (3) Cargolux
  • (2) Korean Air Cargo
For a total of 15 freighters (ABC's order for one is still not showing on Boeing's site), and:
  • (4) Lufthansa
  • (10) Korean Air
  • (6) Air China
  • (4) Transaero
  • (2) Arik Air
  • (1) BBJ
 For 27 Intercontinentals. 

That freighter backlog is THIN! Especially considering they have four of them built and waiting for test/delivery, three unclaimed frames already built, two more claimed and two more unclaimed in the pipe. No matter how you interpret those numbers (for example, line 1437, and are the current unclaimed frames white tails or will they go to an existing customer if they can't be sold to a new one) that leaves a mere three to six frames left to allocate in the build order.

Surprisingly the Intercontinental has the stronger backlog right now. I still expect the Arik Air orders to be officially cancelled sometime in the future, and four of those frames are already built, so that leaves a backlog of about twenty frames to build.

With an official sales total of a big fat negative one frame for 2014, and about 1 1/2 years of backlog to build at the current build rate, Boeing needs to make things happen. For better or worse, there's going to have to be some substantial 747-8 news coming from them in the near term.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Two More Deliveries in September

It was a good month for the 747-8. Not only did Air China pick up their first, but Cargolux took another. Line 1490 (RC510) LX-VCJ is now in service, and she left with some flair...