UPS orders 14 747-8s

UPS and Boeing announced an order for 14 747-8 Freighters today. There's an option for 14 more at a later date.

Well this came from out of the blue!

Developing...

Cargolux Takes One and Maybe Five More

Yesterday line 1522 RC513 LX-VCM delivered to Cargolux, the last of their original order of 13 748Fs. However, they're already talking about taking five more. Line 1534 is scheduled for final assembly, so they better make up their minds quick. These five frames are earmarked for a north central China based operation.

Line 1522 has a very interesting livery. Can't say I'm fond of it.

Photo by moonm

PS - Sorry, I've sucked at updating the blog lately, but I still keep the chart pretty up-to-date. I got my private pilot certificate back in May and flying (albeit much smaller) planes myself has competed with my love of watching them from afar.

Volga-Dnepr Group (sort of) Orders 20 747-8Fs

Hot off the presses, Volga-Dnepr Group has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to take 20 747-8Fs over the next seven years. Part of this deal includes logistic support from Volga's Antonov-124-100 fleet, which is often seen delivering fuselages and other things to Paine Field. The reason I say "sort of" is because an MOU is just the first step in a long process of getting orders firmed up.

Read about it here.

This is about three 747s a year through 2022. If Boeing can sign a few more airlines, like Cargolux, to similar deals, they very well could keep the 747 line churning at twelve or so frames a year into the 2020s. Exciting news.

Catching Up (Old News): Orders!

In old news, 747-8 lovers have had something to be excited about, in that there were some firm orders and speculative orders in the news recently.

First, Silk Way has ordered three more 747-8Fs. These are firm orders. The main area of interest here is if they'll be taking any of the currently three 747-8Fs stored at Marana, or will they be new builds? Or a mix? This probably depends on if Asiana is still talking to Boeing or if that deal really is dead. Either way, that's three firm orders for 2015, only twelve to go. Plus the sixteen they need from last year...

Second, Cargolux's CEO says they will order more 747-8Fs, as many as twenty more. He says there's no replacement for the 747-8F.

And Turkish Airlines is still mentioning the 747. But I'm not holding my breath.

Lufthansa Top Up Order Speculation

Because this blog has been dreadfully boring lately, I'm going to speculate about Lufthansa. If you don't remember, they ordered 20 747-8Is, launching the Intercontinental program into reality. They eventually cancelled one of them, line 1435, which was used as a test frame and considered too out of spec to take. Out of their remaining 19 frames, 15 have been delivered. One is ready to deliver any day now, two more are on the flight line going through testing, and the last frame is finishing up on the Final Assembly Line.

There have been rumors that Lufthansa is going to take back line 1435. If this is true, then they'll eventually announce it, and if they announce it, I think it's likely they'll announce a small top up order for the 748 as well. A small order is a huge order for the 747 right now. Anyways, based on cues and clues, I'm starting to feel it's likely Lufthansa will announce an order for about five or six 747-8Is early this year, including putting line 1435 into service. It would be great to see 1435 enter passenger service, as she's been through a lot of testing (both for the original 747-8I test program and then as the sole dedicated test frame for the PIP package last year), and needs some stability in her life. I also think 1435 will get the retro livery Lufthansa has talked about applying to one of their new 748s.

Again, this is just me speculating based off what is observable. If it comes true, I can brag about my amazing prescience. If it doesn't, you won't notice me silently deleting this post from the archive. You can ridicule me or praise me in the comment section.

Silk Way (almost) Orders Three 747-8Fs

As rumored before, Silk Way and Boeing announced that they are almost ready to firm up an order for three 747-8Fs. This puts us in the black for orders the second week of the year!

This is great news of course. One interesting thing that remains to be seen is if these are new builds or if Silk Way takes some existing white tails. There just happens to be three white tail 747-8Fs already in storage.

GECAS Cancels Two Freighters

Judging by the updated Boeing orders page, two 747-8Fs were cancelled this week, and they must be from GECAS (General Electric Capital Aviation Services). Boeing shows a total backlog of 42 frames, 15 freighters and 27 passenger frames. That gives us:

• (1) Cathay
• (9) NCA
• (3) Cargolux
• (2) Korean Air Cargo

For a total of 15 freighters (ABC's order for one is still not showing on Boeing's site), and:

• (4) Lufthansa
• (10) Korean Air
• (6) Air China
• (4) Transaero
• (2) Arik Air
• (1) BBJ

 For 27 Intercontinentals. 

That freighter backlog is THIN! Especially considering they have four of them built and waiting for test/delivery, three unclaimed frames already built, two more claimed and two more unclaimed in the pipe. No matter how you interpret those numbers (for example, line 1437, and are the current unclaimed frames white tails or will they go to an existing customer if they can't be sold to a new one) that leaves a mere three to six frames left to allocate in the build order.

Surprisingly the Intercontinental has the stronger backlog right now. I still expect the Arik Air orders to be officially cancelled sometime in the future, and four of those frames are already built, so that leaves a backlog of about twenty frames to build.

With an official sales total of a big fat negative one frame for 2014, and about 1 1/2 years of backlog to build at the current build rate, Boeing needs to make things happen. For better or worse, there's going to have to be some substantial 747-8 news coming from them in the near term.

Project Ozark Lives

The 1500th 747 delivery came and went without much fanfare. That was disappointing to me. But...

More news of orders for the 747-8, specifically for the Intercontinental, are mentioned in this Aviation Week article. The article makes the 747-8, more than ever, sound like a continuous work in progress to eke out better and better economics. As far as I know, this is a new style of business for Boeing. The first 747-400s performed about as well as the ones that rolled out 10+ years later.

Lufthansa says the aircraft is meeting original specs, but they want more. Boeing seems willing to bend over backwards to keep the model in production. They've removed 9,000 pounds, and they want to remove more. They want to raise MTOW over a million pounds, and they want to extend real world range over 8,200 nautical miles. These are all part of Project Ozark, which is Boeing's program name covering all of these continued improvements.

Leeham has once again rained on the parade, with more pragmatic doom and gloom. Let's hope Boeing can prove them wrong.

At least it's good to have so much discussion still going on about the 747. It was getting pretty quiet for a while there, and that's what I found really disconcerting.

Potential Order Roundup

Rumors, rumors. That's all we seem to get regarding 747-8 orders right now:

• Emirates - Boeing says they're in sales talks with Emirates to sell them 747-8Is. I have a feeling that, like me being in relationship talks with Kate Upton, this is a one sided discussion.
• Asiana - They still fly 747-400 Converted Freighters, and four passenger 747s. While the passenger jets are most likely getting replaced by the "Big Boned" A380, they're reportedly in talks to replace the freighters with 747-8Fs.
• China Airlines - The Taiwanese national carrier is starting to retire their 747-400 fleet this year. They have 31 total active frames, including 18 freighters and 13 passenger frames (including the last 747-400 passenger frame, delivered in 2005 and not even ten years old yet). The passenger frames are being retired for 777s starting at the end of the year, and losing first class. However, they might still order some 747-8Is and Fs to replace some of their long haul fleet. A lot of their 400s, however, are very young (less than twelve years old), and they've already parked three other freighters at the twelve year mark, so my feelings on this are mixed.
• Centurion Air Cargo - They're expanding their fleet with 747-400Fs and supposedly some 747-8Fs
• Lufthansa - I'm hoping for a top up order soon, maybe around the delivery of line 1500. The only evidence I have for this postulation is A.) earlier rumors about a 20th frame back in the order books, and B.) some excitement has to be made of the 1500th 747 being delivered.
• Transaero - Still reported to be negotiating for four more 747-8Is (for a total of eight).

 Older rumors still hanging around:

• Turkish - They've mentioned they're considering them before, and their relationship with Lufthansa gives me hope they'll order some 747-8Is after hearing how great they are from their German friends. Maybe they'll join in with Lufthansa on an announcement at the 1500th delivery ceremony. If it happens you'll call me brilliant!
• Delta - After the CEO downplayed four holers, the only hope is that he's bluffing for a lower price from Boeing.
• Etihad - They're still operating one 747-8F (via Atlas ACME) and they haven't said no to the 747-8I yet.
• United - United loses hundreds of millions every quarter anyway. Might as well buy a few 747-8I and fly them half empty! That was a joke!!

We really need some 2014 firm orders to happen soon.

2013 Orders Update

Update: Fresh out of the paint hanger, line 1493 (RC641) GECAS's first frame is headed for Azerbaijan based Silk Way Airlines as 4K-SW881. This means GECAS's second probably is too. Silk Way was supposed to be in the market for four 747-8Fs, so this does make sense, as they have two more later frames already likely allocated.

Photo by Matt Cawby

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It seems more and more likely that the two unidentified 747-8I orders are the last two frames for Air China (frames six and seven), so I don't think they'll end up being a big surprise when revealed.

As an addendum to the 2013 wrap up post, final orders for 2013 stand at 17 gross, 12 net (taking into account the five 747-8Fs cancelled by Dubai Aerospace Enterprise in August). Hopefully most cancellations have been shaken from the tree now, so going forward gross orders will equal net orders.

And this post is really just an excuse to post a sequence of 787 line 25 returning from her extremely belated first flight this morning. I remember this frame sitting for an eternity, taped up on the tower apron, but look at her now.

New 747-8I Orders

Boeing updated their final order and delivery tally for 2013, and they're showing that they did in fact deliver 24 frames last year. But more exciting are six new firm orders for the 747-8I. Transaero finally firmed up their four MOUs, and two more are showing for an unidentified customer. Let the speculation begin! Top up? New operator? BBJ? El Presidente?

Meanwhile, line 1494 (RC032) D-ABYM for Lufthansa finally really rolled out, and line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL went up for a first flight. Also, line 1493 (RC641) for GE Capital Aviation Services entered then paint hanger, so we should see who she's for in a week or so.

Here's line 1492 returning from her B1:

Cathay takes one for the road

Cathay Pacific announced today an order for one 747-8F which will bring their total fleet to 14. I was hoping for more, but one is better than none. Cathay's VLA passenger plans are clearly 100% focused on the 777 unfortunately for the 747-8. In other Cathay updates, they took delivery of line 1486 (RC563) B-LJM on the 23rd.

Also delivered was AirBridgeCargo's final frame, line 1483 (RC605) VQ-BRJ. This, along with the paper delivery of line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines, marks the end of the desert storage saga, at east for now. All 747-8s that were parked in the desert over the last year or so have now been delivered.

It's looking like 23 deliveries for 2013, unless line 1488 (RC549) HL7624 for Korean can squeeze out the door before the end of the year. That's down from 31 last year, but still a healthy number.

Korean Confirms, Delta Distances

Korean Air firmed up their top up order of five additional 747-8Is, as part of an order that included six 773ERs and one 787. This means Korean now has ten 747-8Is on order, which should start delivering next year.

Delta CEO Richard Anderson was recently quoted as saying "We had four engines when jet engine technology wasn't advanced. Now jet engines are amazing, amazing machines and you only need two of them". I've had hopes that Delta would be a 747-8I customer. They like proven architectures. They have ten 100,000+ hour 747-400s coming up on retirement around 2017. They like good deals and I'm sure Boeing would be willing to make them happy on price. Anderson, however, seems to throw a wet towel on the prospect. As an aside, his quote sounds a bit Titanic-ish to me in light of the recent issues with GE's most modern "amazing, amazing machines" (re core icing). I'm not saying they aren't amazing; I'm saying they aren't amazing enough for me to not want four of them when I'm 40,000 feet up.

No deliveries to speak of. A rollout, line 1490 (RC510) LX-VCJ for Cargolux (fully painted but no engines), and a test flight for old line 1437 (RC573) today, if the endless fog lifts at Everett. Still trying to figure out what's going on with the latter frame.

Transaero Expects Four 747-8Is in 2015

Transaearo has had an MOU (memorandum of understanding) for four 747-8Is in with Boeing for a while now, but little has been heard about firming them up. Some were starting to think it will never happen. Well, just recently in an interview with ATW, Transaero CEO Olga Pleshakova stated they'll have their four new 747-8Is in 2015, and they'll use them in a premier heavy layout similar to Lufthansa. A couple interesting things come from this:

• These four frames could be the other four commitments in this story, meaning there's another customer new to the 747 ready to buy other frames beyond the eleven mentioned.
• Could Transaero be taking line 1435 (RC021) after it gets refurbished? They're happily taking early 787 models, so it's a possibility. I really don't want line 1435 going to waste as a BBJ.

Bad news, Good news...

Lufthansa's order has been made official. 34 777-9Xs and 25 A350-900s. This order is mostly bad news for the prospects of 747-8I sales. I had thought this order was going to be 25/25 of each widebody twin, solely targeting the replacement of Lufthansa's 50 A340s (300 and 600 models), and leaving the late model 747-400s for a future order. It turns out that this order is targeting the replacement of their late model 747-400s as well.

Bad news:

• Newer model 747-400s will be replaced with 777-9Xs
• Unlikely Lufthansa will order any significant amount of additional 747-8Is in the future

Good news:

• Newer 747-400s will fly their full life span (22-24 years) before being retired by 2025
• A340-600s (fellow four holers) will fly a good life span (16-18 years) before being retired by 2025
• Lufthansa will take delivery of all 19 747-8Is, and plans for them to be a key part of their long haul fleet in 2025 (implying they'll remain in service well past that date)

In other good news:

• Line 1435 (RC021) continues her flight test program, now 300+ hours in, testing new engines, tail tank, and other things
• Line 1437 (RC573) is back in the air. Could it be nearing a sale?
• Line 1463 (RC604) VQ-BRH for AirBridgeCargo is back at the delivery center, hopefully to fly into service soon

And lastly, because I was bored and it's a 2+ year old frame flying for the first time, here's 787 line 36 (ZA381) B-2726 for China Southern taking to the skies. And seeing as she's meant for China Southern, this means that she'll probably deliver sometime in the next 12-24 months.

Silk Way Airlines Firms Up Order

Silk Way Airlines, based in Azerbaijan, firmed up their order for two 747-8Fs. These will compliment their eclectic fleet which includes three 747-400Fs, two 767-300Fs, three Antonov An-12s, and seven Ilyushin II-76MFs.

So far for the year this makes five firm orders for the 747-8 in total (the other three were from Cathay). Net orders for the year are at a big fat zero though, due to Dubai Aerospace cancelling five a few months ago.

Korean Wants Five More 747-8Is

Today in Paris, Korean Air and Boeing announced that they've signed a purchase commitment for another five 747-8Is. This is a top up order, as they'd already ordered five, so now they'll have a total of ten. This is great news, as Korean Air has always been a big 747 customer, and it looks like that will continue for a few decades.

Here's the press release.

Minus five orders

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise cancelled their last five 747-8F's, which was no surprise. They cancelled their first five last year, and the writing was on the wall for the remaining orders. So the count is down to 105 total orders for the 747-8 now, with about 60 of them already built. You can see why Boeing slowed down the line recently.

Etihad Airways is long term leasing a 747-8 from Atlas. I wonder which of Atlas's nine it will be. Apparently it will get a new Etihad paint job. The article says number eight, which if literal, would be line 1471. I'm still hoping it could be line 1437, the last unclaimed Atlas NTU.