Today line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines had a delivery flight in the midst of heavy fog at KPAE. This frame was actually delivered in December of 2013, but sat around for a month waiting to fly to Tokyo. This was the last of five frames that were stored long term in the desert at Pinal Airpark. Hopefully that won't happen again.
And a look back at the chart now vs what it was in May 2012:
And a look back at the chart now vs what it was in May 2012:
Well after 2 years worth of recovery, the line slowing down to 1.5 a month and few orders It does not look good in the long term. However there is talk of 'hot and high' being available from 2014 onwards and then there is 'Project Ozark'.
ReplyDeleteSomewhere, I can't remember where, someone said that a model of the 747-9I with a range of 8500NM would do the trick and if it does work there will be another comparison a few years from now showing how miserable things were back in 2014.
Well, the air cargo market hasn't really recovered over the last couple of years. In fact, it was quite the opposite until the last half of 2013. Also, while recovery overall has been in progress for the last couple of years, it hasn't really been smooth the whole time. Hopefully with the continued improvement in the air cargo market, as well as the PIP performance of existing customers, there will be a more steady stream of orders. Regardless though, I see the VLA segment being a relatively small niche compared to the majority of the wide-body market, dominated by the twins.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean by "hot and high being available from 2014 onwards"?
I know that there was talk about getting the 8i to 8200nm, and maybe a little further. I don't think they would be able to push it all the way out to 8500nm.
There was a rumor that Boeing is considering stretching range to 8500nm. I imagine it was related to the rumor that Emirates was taking another look at the jet, and/or possible Etihad. If true it's one of those things where the only way they'd do it is if they had a sales agreement of some sorts.
DeleteHmm... lots of interesting stuff to speculate on.
DeleteIn Etihad's case There has to be some kind of reason other than just a need for a freighter to lease out, because if all they wanted was capacity why not turn to the glut of 747-400F's out there for that. It looks like Etihad wanted to try out the wing and engine combo otherwise they would be looking at an expanded requirement of several frames instead of the single example now flown.
Also Etihad is in Abu Dhabi, just down the road from Dubai, it is not a strecth of the imagination to believe that there is some truth to those rumors. It could be that the raison detre of Project Ozark isn't about adding just 'a bit more range' at all, but rather research to meet a rather serious requirement from a serious customer. Is it Emirates? Etihad? I'm not going to go there.
As for Hot and high, there is a guy supposedly attached to 747-8 propulsion, who says that there is such a program and it is part of a package of upgrades for the 2B. There is no more detail about that for now as far as I've read. If true, there is scope for -8 to be a significantly improved aircraft compared to the originals, but time is running out and short of more orders and more improvements there will not be a 747 after all the latest commitments have been delivered.
This will be an epic battle of survival for the 747 program, there are thousands of jobs and billions worth of supplier contracts attached to it. It is not in the General Public's or the Airlines best interest for Boeing to close it down without offering some kind of alternative, because its double deck competitor will become a monopoly in the VLA segment something that would cause Boeing to lose potential gains in market share in the future. The improvements on the other hand may have to continue even if the resultant iteration from Project Ozark exceeds a range of 8500nm. The work cannot stop or else the program is dead.
In reality of course, We will have to see what really happens in the end.
Looks like you might have to put the GSS cargo frames in red because BA just Tossed them.
ReplyDeleteLN 1494 D-ABYM has been painted.
Deletekpae.blogspot.com
Also, has her sister flown a B1 yet?
Is the chart not loading for you? :p
DeleteActually no, I'm stuck out here with intermittent connectivity. :D
DeletePics and text only on on some days but anything app wise is screwed most days.
Oh OK sorry for the smart ass reply then :) D-ABYL flew a B1 on 1/3/2014 and has gone up a couple times since.
DeleteDelivery should be soon then. Also, don't worry about being too smart, it happens to the most of us.:D
ReplyDelete