No news is no news.

Trying to cover the 747-8 right now is sort of like trying to cover decaying uranium. Things are slow and there's not much to talk about.

Boeing said last month that the slow down in manufacturing is temporary, and that in 2019 they'll increase the rate once again. But this outlook depends on their slightly biased/myopic predictions about cargo demand, which I have some skepticism over. Meanwhile they're laying off a large group of people in the short term.

Boeing has been shipping 747-8 engines from various sad frames in the desert to install on KPAE airframes due for delivery over the next months, namely Korean Airlines frames. They still have five scheduled to deliver this year. Could this be a sign of engine production issues? Or GE lethargy? This, by the way, doesn't bode well for the short term future of said desert airframes.

I flew a Cessna 210 a few weeks ago, which, compared to the C172s and PA-28s I'm used to, sort of felt like a 747-8. I pretended to have four throttle controls the whole time...

Pakistan International Airlines Rumored to be Buying Five 747-8Is

There's a credible rumor going around that PIA is looking at five 747-8Is, but this could actually be a sign of bad news for the 747-8I. One version of the rumor is that Korean Airlines has delayed or cancelled five of their ten ordered 747-8Is, which turns a potential PIA order into more of a scramble to place unwanted 747-8Is. Korean Air already has seven of their ten frames in various stages of construction (one is painted and looks complete, one is getting seats installed and should be painted soon, two are in final assembly, and three are in early stages of assembly).

Developing...

Wrong Part 1 (of ? Parts)

Lufthansa's line 1513 RC038 D-ABYT is getting the "retro" livery (link in German). I had predicted D-ABYE would get it. Oh well, I still have a chance at being right about the rest... Pics below.

And in other melancholy news, line 1514 RC039 D-ABYU rolled out last night. She's the final Lufthansa 747-8I to be built. As of now...

As reported by Till Bartels

https://twitter.com/mattcawby

D-ABYU by Cawby

Lufthansa Top Up Order Speculation

Because this blog has been dreadfully boring lately, I'm going to speculate about Lufthansa. If you don't remember, they ordered 20 747-8Is, launching the Intercontinental program into reality. They eventually cancelled one of them, line 1435, which was used as a test frame and considered too out of spec to take. Out of their remaining 19 frames, 15 have been delivered. One is ready to deliver any day now, two more are on the flight line going through testing, and the last frame is finishing up on the Final Assembly Line.

There have been rumors that Lufthansa is going to take back line 1435. If this is true, then they'll eventually announce it, and if they announce it, I think it's likely they'll announce a small top up order for the 748 as well. A small order is a huge order for the 747 right now. Anyways, based on cues and clues, I'm starting to feel it's likely Lufthansa will announce an order for about five or six 747-8Is early this year, including putting line 1435 into service. It would be great to see 1435 enter passenger service, as she's been through a lot of testing (both for the original 747-8I test program and then as the sole dedicated test frame for the PIP package last year), and needs some stability in her life. I also think 1435 will get the retro livery Lufthansa has talked about applying to one of their new 748s.

Again, this is just me speculating based off what is observable. If it comes true, I can brag about my amazing prescience. If it doesn't, you won't notice me silently deleting this post from the archive. You can ridicule me or praise me in the comment section.

Line 1437 Might Have a Home

Rumor is that Saudi Arabian Cargo will take a third 747-8F, and logically that'll probably be the sister ship to their current two frames: Line 1437 RC523 HZ-AI5 (the last of the three early Atlas NTUs). Makes sense, and I hope it happens. 1437 has been seeing some activity lately, so let's see if she gets a new paint job to confirm.

Potential Order Roundup

Rumors, rumors. That's all we seem to get regarding 747-8 orders right now:

• Emirates - Boeing says they're in sales talks with Emirates to sell them 747-8Is. I have a feeling that, like me being in relationship talks with Kate Upton, this is a one sided discussion.
• Asiana - They still fly 747-400 Converted Freighters, and four passenger 747s. While the passenger jets are most likely getting replaced by the "Big Boned" A380, they're reportedly in talks to replace the freighters with 747-8Fs.
• China Airlines - The Taiwanese national carrier is starting to retire their 747-400 fleet this year. They have 31 total active frames, including 18 freighters and 13 passenger frames (including the last 747-400 passenger frame, delivered in 2005 and not even ten years old yet). The passenger frames are being retired for 777s starting at the end of the year, and losing first class. However, they might still order some 747-8Is and Fs to replace some of their long haul fleet. A lot of their 400s, however, are very young (less than twelve years old), and they've already parked three other freighters at the twelve year mark, so my feelings on this are mixed.
• Centurion Air Cargo - They're expanding their fleet with 747-400Fs and supposedly some 747-8Fs
• Lufthansa - I'm hoping for a top up order soon, maybe around the delivery of line 1500. The only evidence I have for this postulation is A.) earlier rumors about a 20th frame back in the order books, and B.) some excitement has to be made of the 1500th 747 being delivered.
• Transaero - Still reported to be negotiating for four more 747-8Is (for a total of eight).

 Older rumors still hanging around:

• Turkish - They've mentioned they're considering them before, and their relationship with Lufthansa gives me hope they'll order some 747-8Is after hearing how great they are from their German friends. Maybe they'll join in with Lufthansa on an announcement at the 1500th delivery ceremony. If it happens you'll call me brilliant!
• Delta - After the CEO downplayed four holers, the only hope is that he's bluffing for a lower price from Boeing.
• Etihad - They're still operating one 747-8F (via Atlas ACME) and they haven't said no to the 747-8I yet.
• United - United loses hundreds of millions every quarter anyway. Might as well buy a few 747-8I and fly them half empty! That was a joke!!

We really need some 2014 firm orders to happen soon.