United Fleet Week

It's only a 747-400, but check out this great video of United showing off their soon to be retired 747 in San Francisco.

Happy Second Birthday Line 1416!

(In service birthday, at least). My how time flies.

Happy Birthday Line 1416, LX-ECV

How quickly a year flies by, and how fast those hours add up! Just over a year ago, after a stillbirth and over four years of desert storage with barely twenty hours on the clock, line 1416 entered into service with Cargolux as LX-ECV, . She's doing much better now, traveling the world, but mostly focusing on Europe to South America and back. Cargolux keeps her busy too. It's truly a happy ending (so far) for this formerly neglected frame.

Could she be the last 744 in service one day? Will she ever receive a full livery? We shall see!

It Came From the Desert, Part n

Line 1485 (RC526) JA16KZ for Nippon Cargo Airline returned from banishment to the desert today. It looks like NCA is making moves to accommodate their new frames and transfer over to a 747-8F majority fleet. Last year they returned 747-400 JA02KZ to its lessor (who just happened to sell it to Kalitta recently), and now they've unloaded JA01KZ and JA03KZ as well.

Those are some young 747-400s, and it looks like these aren't Boeing gifted trade in deals, being lease returns. I don't know the exact numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are stiff penalties for returning a new 747 after eight years (or even worse, selling it if they own it, as market value on 747-400s has plummeted). So it's obvious that the 747-8 really kicks a 747-400's ass enough to make these moves desirable. Line 1485 will probably deliver after line 1489, but before 1487. And remember, NCA still has six more frames on order which have yet to even be allocated in the production list.

ABC Wants Another 747-8F, Quick

AirBridgeCargo has publicly stated they're taking a new 747-8F for delivery in October of this year. That's exciting news, but the interesting question is "Which one?". Here are the realistic options:

• Line 1437 - The last remaining Atlas NTU still unspoken for. She's a bit heavy, but she's extremely available. Currently this frame is down in Victorville for some unknown reason. Could she be getting new engines and paint? Likelihood: HIGH.
• Line 1485/7/9) - NCA has three frames prepared and waiting for delivery. Two are in storage in the desert, one is at KPAE. NCA has a history of swapping 747-400F frames with ABC. However, line 1489, the newest one and still at KPAE, was just painted in NCA colors after being bare for a year. This points to NCA still planning on taking all three frames. Likelihood: LOW
• Line 1501/2 (Customer code) It's unclear who these frames are for. Originally they were suspected to be for Silk Way, but now one has a grey tail and the other is unpainted. They've both flown and are airworthy. My main reservation is that they have the same customer code, which indicates they're likely for the same customer. Unless something has changed. Likelihood: MEDIUM HIGH

AirBridgeCargo also stated they want to eventually move to an all 747-8F fleet. They currently have eight 747-400. One is set to be returned to the lessor, and it was just replaced by line 1376. All of ABC's 747-400 frames are quite young. If they're leases, that doesn't matter so much. This means there could be potential for six to eight 747-8F orders over the next few years.

UPDATE: Looks like the answer is - Line 1501 (RC671) VQ-BVR... which really makes me wonder what the hell is going on with line 1437.

UPDATE 2: Nope. Line 1505 (RC564?) VQ-BVR

Line 1416 in service

Line 1416 LX-ECV for Cargolux got a little bit more livery added to her, with the company emblem painted on her tail. She's been in service for eight months already. How long will she fly? I would say it's either:

• another 9 months, if she's due a D check at the six year mark
• another 5 years, if the D check time frame is put on hold while properly stored
• either of the above plus 6, 12, or 18 years, due to D checks being every 6 years for 747-400s.

So I'm hoping for another 23 years, personally.

From Planespotters

Happy 1/10th Birthday, Line 1416

Some good pictures of line 1416 LX-ECV for Cargolux in action have popped up at Widebodies. She's one tenth of a year old (at least in in-service years) now. Not much of a livery but at least there's something. Even if they park her again after three months, I can die knowing the frame wasn't totally wasted.

Pic 1

Pic 2 

And here just last week in Brazil.

Video of takeoff from Afonso Pena International Airport. (ruined by youtube's smoothing algorithm but better than nothing).

Paine Field activity isn't exactly electrifying right now. Cathay's new triplets are still being tested, but it's getting late for them to really contribute to the holiday rush. Korean Air Cargo's line 1488 (RC549) HL7624 is pending a first flight. It's strange that this frame is in flight test while line 1481 (RC548) also for KAC has been sitting unpainted and un-engined for six months.

Looking Like 23 Deliveries For 2013

Blogger.com is blocked from China, as is a bunch of other stuff. I found a way to keep the chart updated though.

So I missed all the excitement of all three new Cathay frames having B1s over 4 days (and it was almost three consecutive). That would be lines 1483 (RC561) B-LJK, 1484 (RC562) B-LJL, and 1486 (RC563) B-LJM.

It looks like between these three and lines 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ (for NCA) and 1483 (RC605) VQ-BRJ (for ABC), Boeing is really pushing to get them out before the end of the year, which would give us 23 deliveries for 2013.

I scored three 747-400 rides this trip, and it's good to see so much 747 activity at the big airports. It's not what it used to be but there are still a lot of them taxiing around. I flew on RP-C7472 (line 1012 for Philippines from LAX to MNL), B-HUF (line 993 for Cathay from HKG to TPE), and B-18207 (line 1176 for China Airlines from TPE to LAX), with a bonus short hop in an A340 from MNL to HKG on the outgoing, which happens to be my favorite Airbus. It was scheduled for an A330, which is the most boring airliner in existence to me, so the swap was a great surprise. A340-300 RP-C3438 was fresh over from Iberia to Philippines Airlines, still with the old Iberia livery minus branding.

Saw a lot of 747-8s on this trip too. Can't wait to fly in one. They really are the best looking version of the best looking airliner ever made. Here are some pics:

RP-C7472 - don't those engines just give you warm fuzzies?

Upper Deck!

RP-C3438 still wearing old clothes.

Hong Kong - How many 747-8s can you count?

D-ABYF at Hong Kong.

B-HUF ready for a short hop to Taiwan.

There isn't always time for a great pic, but gotta get the tail number. Funny thing was the cute flight attendant listed it off from memory before I took this shot to verify. I'm in love.

Need For (Ground) Speed Baby!!

Holy Crap, 747-8s Are Quiet.

Live blogging from the road!

I'm at LAX waiting for my flight (PAL flight 103, 747-400 line 1012 RP-C7472), at the Tom Bradley complex, gate 156, which is at the south end. My flight pulls up and I'm admiring how awesome 747s are in person, and a couple jets are taking off just to the side of me on runway 25R making the usual racket. Suddenly I catch this long ass ghost ship 747 race by and lift up into the air in the dark, and I look closely to see Cathay livery. It's dark so I can't see the tail number, but I looked it up on FlightRadar (because FlightAware is busted) and it's B-LJD. So not only am I stoked to see one of my overdue delivery frames take off in person 100 yards away, but I can't believe how quiet it was. I mean it was like a Tesla just drove by or something. No hyperbole, that was amazing. Unfortunately I wasn't quick enough to get a pic. But here's my ride:

Philippine Airlines line 1012, RP-C7472

Now I'm in the International Lounge feeling like royalty, with free food and drinks, far away from all the smelly proletarians. I could get used to this Business Class thing...

Predicting the End of Year Deliveries

First, it's been tough keeping the chart 100% accurate lately. It's not just the many unpainted, un-engined frames that have been sitting around KPAE. There are very few flight line shots taken to reference these days. I'm left to pick 747s from the corners of cropped photos targeting less interesting planes to keep the chart up to date, and I often have to guess or speculate. I appreciate any missed observations left in the comments section.

One mystery is the white rudder 747 on the tower apron, and the other parked in stall 120 (at least as of a couple days ago). One has got to be NCA line 1489, but all other frames that would be white rudder tails have been verified as being painted. Even if Cargolux line 1491 just rolled out unpainted with white rudder, these two frames have been showing up in pictures for at least a week or two. Unless it was a really well timed swap?

Line 1416 LX-ECV for Cargolux is in service with a white paint job. She's flying in to Atlanta tonight. Anyone there to get some pics?

Ok, now down to the main topic. How many 747-8s will deliver in 2013? So far we've had 17 frames delivered. Looking towards the end of the year, these are the remaining possibilities (notice they are all freighters):

1. 1469 (RC524) JA14KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
2. 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
3. 1482 (RC605) VQ-BRJ for AirBridgeCargo
4. 1483 (RC561) B-LJK for Cathay
5. 1484 (RC562) B-LJL for Cathay
6. 1486 (RC563) B-LJM cor Cathay
7. 1481 (RC548)  ? for Korean Air Cargo
8. 1488 (RC549)  ? for Korean Air Cargo
9. 1485 (RC526) JA16KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
10. 1487 (RC527) JA17KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
11. 1490 (RC510) LX-VCJ for Cargolux
12. 1489 (RC528) JA18KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
13. 1437 (RC573)
14. 1491 (RC511) LX-VCK for Cargolux

I've color code them by likelihood. 1 and 2 will most likely deliver because they're ready, and NCA stated they plan on three total this year; so far they've only taken one (line 1421, which by the way just entered service). 4, 5, and 6 will probably deliver because Cathay plans on having all three before the end of the year, and they all have engines and paint jobs. The one major thing that could stop these deliveries is the FAA failing to punctually certify the big changes these frames incorporate. 3 will deliver because ABC just parked a 747-400F to make room for it. 7 might deliver to Korean, as it has engines and it's tentatively scheduled to deliver in December. 8 might take 7's spot, or less likely join it. 9, 10, and 12 probably won't deliver because NCA said they plan on taking the next three frames in 2014, and they don't have engines yet. 11 and 14 are distant possibilities, and 13 is another distant possibility, depending on if it has a customer and what their timetable would be.

According to 747Classic on airliners.net, the following are officially scheduled for December, but Boeing schedules are fluid:

L/N1482 RC605 ABC

L/N1483 RC561 Cathay

L/N1484 RC562 Cathay

L/N1486 RC563 Cathay

L/N1488 RC549 KAL

So low end 20, absolute high end 31. Most likely, we're looking at around 23-24 747-8s being delivered for the year of 2013.

Update: It's been pointed out that NCA's plan to take three frames in 2013 is actually for their fiscal year, which ends in April 2014, so line 1479 could slip past December.

A Tribute to a Really Overdue Delivery (Lucky) #7: Line 1416 (747-400)

Line 1416. The poor 747-400ERF, neglected, unloved, unwanted. Four and a half years old. Sitting in the desert for over four of those long, lonesome years...

OK, I'm being overly sappy. I'll stop. But the BIG NEWS today is that line 1416 is officially in business with new owner Cargolux. She flew out of Pinal Airpark straight to Anchorage and into service.

Line 1416 is now Cargolux LX-ECV.

A little trip down memory lane is called for. Line 1416 rolled out of the FAL late February 2009.

At the fuel dock after roll out, by Matt Cawby

At the compass rose, by Matt Cawby

She had her first flight March 21st, 2009. She was supposed to be 9K-DAA for LoadAir Cargo, along with sister ship line 1419 (the last 747-400 built).

Lining up for first flight, by Matt Cawby

Returning from first flight.

A test flight in April 2009, by Matt Cawby

LoadAir Cargo went out of business, and Line 1416 was given the Boeing tail N797BA. She took a short hop to Vancouver before heading to Pinal Airpark, where she ended up sitting for over four years. 

Leaving for storage, by Matt Cawby

There were suitors along the way, but every deal fell through for one reason or another. Her sister in exile, line 1419 was bought by Kalitta in 2011 and has been cruising the skies ever since.

Behind line 1419.

On the right, next to sister ship line 1419, by AirTeamImages

All alone now...

After a promising deal with Qantas Freight fell through earlier this year, it seemed 1416 would never fly again, but Cargolux must have seized the opportunity and swooped in to the rescue.

Returning from a first flight out of storage, by azspyder

Cargolux is a great operator for line 1416. They heavily utilize their 747s, and send them to all four corners of the Earth. I can't wait to catch her in full livery at various airports around the world. Overdue is an understatement in this case, but it makes this delivery so much more savory.

Delivery flight. Arriving in Anchorage.

Line 1416 to Cargolux?

Update: Still haven't been able to ascertain exactly which frame this is. Flight radar lists no registration.
 ______

This is pure speculation right now, but a 747-400 just left Pinal Airpark, flight CLX789, headed for Anchorage. As far as I can tell, there were no Cargolux 747-400s at Pinal. Also, 1416 went for a test flight about four weeks ago, which is enough time for a paint job. Is it possible Cargolux picked up line 1416?

Oh... My... God...

Line 1416 is scheduled for a test flight this morning.

UPDATE: SHE'S FLYING

And landed. Unless she crash landed in the desert near the border, I'm guessing Flight Aware is screwing up, and the flight lasted about 100 minutes. First flight in four years, and she might have crossed 20 hours total flight time now.

So 1416 most likely has a customer. Woo hoo! Can't wait to see her painted so we can know who it is.

Tupelo

Headed to Tupelo...

Took me long enough to post these pictures, didn't it? I visited Tupelo Regional Airport in search of old 747s a few weeks ago, and I wasn't disappointed. It's safe to assume that any large airplane flying into Tupelo is soon to be a scrap pile. Case in point, former United 747-400 N193UA, which flew here back in December:

"And that there's what's left of 193..."

The Lufthansa 747s that flew in here last year? Not a sign of them ever existing. It was a really interesting visit. The company that does all this dirty work, Universal Asset Management, stays very busy. They also have a spin off company called Aviation Afterlife that creates furniture and artwork using pieces and parts from these scrapped planes. I won't blather on any more about it; I'll just get to the pictures and videos.

Photo Gallery
Up in N195UA (video)
Flight Line 1 (video)
Flight Line 2 (video)

1416 Not Going Anywhere, 1421 Going Somewhere

I know it was only a rumor initially, and I know this is just a post on a forum and could very well be dubious, but here's an apparent insider memo from Qantas Freight saying they've cancelled plans to take up a new 747-400ERF which was likely to have been line 1416. I believe it, because who would bother making stuff like this up? It's maddening... Maybe Kalitta will jump in and take advantage of this situation. It's really embarrassing how inept Boeing has been in finding an operator for this brand new frame. Four and a half years now.

1416 gets me all emotional.

In better news, line 1421 (RC521) JA11KZ for Nippon Cargo was up on a functional check flight, which means they're probably getting her ready for delivery before the end of the year. NCA is still slated to take delivery of three more 747-8Fs before years end, and I think they'll take this one and the two in storage, while the newer three frames wait for improved engines and deliver next year.

Rise From Your Grave(yard)

Line 1478 (RC509) LX-VCI for Cargolux has returned from a short (two month) stint of storage at Pinal Airpark. This probably means she'll deliver in September. That's the second frame to come out of storage now, and it's a welcome sign to see that these frames aren't all going to sit around for years like line 1416.

Speaking of 1416, the talk on the net is heavily leaning towards Qantas Cargo taking her up into service by the end of the year. Nothing's a done deal till it's done, but if it does happen I'm gonna have to post the mother of all tributes...

4 Holers > 2 Holers

What would have been a catastrophic incident in a two engine ship was just another Wednesday at the office for AirBridgeCargo line 1430 (RC601) VQ-BGZ.

In other news, I visited Tupelo, Mississippi today, and have some really cool pictures and video to post. I'm on vacation so it'll probably take me a few days to sort through them and post them, but here's a teaser:

The 747-400 formerly known as N195UA.

If you don't like the state she's in, you really won't like what N193UA is looking like these days.

Also, thanks for 50,000 hits!

747-400 Line 966 Back in Service

I figured out what this flight was: line 966, a former United and Corsair frame. She's headed to Nigeria for Kabo Air under registration 5N-MDK. Good to see prematurely retired United 747-400's staying alive in service, but it still consternates me that the newest ones were sent to the scrapper.

100k hour 747-400s

Line 1432 (RC572) HZ-AI4 for Saudi Arabian Cargo went out for a C1 flight today, so delivery should be approaching.

I've been snooping around this FAA database, and it looks like Delta's first ten 747-400s (N6[61-70]us) are all just hitting or about to hit 100,000 service hours. Being that they're all 23-25 years old, this is pretty good utilization. Not "Lufthansa good", but still good. The newer six are in the 50-60,000 hour range.

United's 747-400's are not utilized as well as Delta's. Their oldest are all in or approaching the low 90,000 hour range, with many of the newer frames in the 40,000-60,000+ range. Entries here confirm that some of their early retirement frames (like n195ua and n106ua) were, sure enough, in the low 40,000 hour range, or even lower.

Lufthansa wants to replace remaining 747-400s starting in 2020

Update: See this article on Bloomberg. Looks like the Aviation Week article (which has now been updated as well) was based on a misquote and the CEO was talking about the remaining newer 747-400s, which will all be over 20 years old by then anyway. So they're looking at the 777-9x over the 747-8I as a replacement, which would mean the possibility of no top up 747-8I order from Lufthansa.

_________________________________________________________
Previous: I have issues with the wording in this article that makes the claim. I'm sure the Lufthansa CEO was speaking in German and it's not a direct quote, but it isn't really clear if he actually said what the headline claims he said, or if Aviation Week derived this from the fact that he said they're also looking at the 777-9X in their plan to replace their A340 fleet starting in 2020. The 777-9X isn't really 747-8I size anyway, more like 747-400 size.

If it's true and he really said what the headline claims, then that sucks. But I can't imagine they'd plan to take another twelve frames, and that Boeing would be putting so much work into improving efficiency, if this was true. I'm guessing it would be cheaper to cancel the remaining orders, do an extra heavy check on their current older 747-400's, and limp to 2020 then to spend the capital on twelve new frames for a mere ten years of use. Lufthansa has always made their money owning frames and flying them to old age. Even their A340s will all be 20 years old or older when they get retired. Maybe he meant that future 747-400's replacements would probably be 777-9Xs, instead of more 747-8Is. I guess we'll see with time.