Deliveries Remaining for 2014

With the delivery of line 1489 RC528 JA18KZ to Nippon Cargo (just over a year after roll out!), that brings the total delivery count for 2014 to a meager 14. Here's what to expect for the remainder of the year:

• Line 1485 JA16KZ should deliver to NCA in late November
• Line 1487 JA17KZ should deliver to NCA in late December
• Line 1507 B-2486 should deliver to Air China in November
• Line 1508 B-2487 should deliver to Air China in December

Which will bring the total delivery count for 2014 to 18 frames; the current manufacturing rate. It's possible a couple more might slip in before 2014 ends, but unlikely.

In other news, a very exciting one year birthday is fast approaching... who could it be? :O

ABC Wants Another 747-8F, Quick

AirBridgeCargo has publicly stated they're taking a new 747-8F for delivery in October of this year. That's exciting news, but the interesting question is "Which one?". Here are the realistic options:

• Line 1437 - The last remaining Atlas NTU still unspoken for. She's a bit heavy, but she's extremely available. Currently this frame is down in Victorville for some unknown reason. Could she be getting new engines and paint? Likelihood: HIGH.
• Line 1485/7/9) - NCA has three frames prepared and waiting for delivery. Two are in storage in the desert, one is at KPAE. NCA has a history of swapping 747-400F frames with ABC. However, line 1489, the newest one and still at KPAE, was just painted in NCA colors after being bare for a year. This points to NCA still planning on taking all three frames. Likelihood: LOW
• Line 1501/2 (Customer code) It's unclear who these frames are for. Originally they were suspected to be for Silk Way, but now one has a grey tail and the other is unpainted. They've both flown and are airworthy. My main reservation is that they have the same customer code, which indicates they're likely for the same customer. Unless something has changed. Likelihood: MEDIUM HIGH

AirBridgeCargo also stated they want to eventually move to an all 747-8F fleet. They currently have eight 747-400. One is set to be returned to the lessor, and it was just replaced by line 1376. All of ABC's 747-400 frames are quite young. If they're leases, that doesn't matter so much. This means there could be potential for six to eight 747-8F orders over the next few years.

UPDATE: Looks like the answer is - Line 1501 (RC671) VQ-BVR... which really makes me wonder what the hell is going on with line 1437.

UPDATE 2: Nope. Line 1505 (RC564?) VQ-BVR

First Flight - JA18KZ

Line 1489 (RC528) JA18KZ has been sitting around for a long time... Today she finally flew. She's probably destined for the desert, to be delivered late in the year.

Missing 747-8s

Looking at Matt Cawby's latest flight line, there are two missing 747-8s at Paine Field. Silk Way line 1496 (RC642) 4K-SW882, and NCA line 1489 (RC528) JA18KZ. Line 1489 could either be in the paint hanger or stall 115 getting engines.

In March, we saw two deliveries. Lufthansa took line 1497 (RC033) D-ABYN, and Korean Air Cargo took line 1481 (RC548) HL7623. Line 1481 was a bit of an overdue delivery herself, having rolled out in May of 2013, only to sit around for six months.

Other than that, 747 activity at KPAE has been pretty slow. I suppose at 1.5 frames a month, it will most likely stay slow. The only really exciting thing right now is how eagerly Lufthansa is snapping up their frames. Talk over on airliners.net says the 747-8 is doing very well for them, performing better than advertised while making large improvements to the profitability of their routes.

The first 747-8I for Air China (line 1499!) should roll out really soon.