100th 747-8 Delivered

Today a rare double 747-8 delivery took place for AirBridgeCargo. Line 1501 RC671 VQ-BFU and line 1502 RC672 VQ-BFE both flew off to Russia, marking the 99th and 100th delivered 747-8s.

These two frames were formerly earmarked for Asiana, so it's nice to see them finally fly into service well over a year after rolling out of the factory.

Can't wait for delivery #200.

Volga-Dnepr Group (sort of) Orders 20 747-8Fs

Hot off the presses, Volga-Dnepr Group has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to take 20 747-8Fs over the next seven years. Part of this deal includes logistic support from Volga's Antonov-124-100 fleet, which is often seen delivering fuselages and other things to Paine Field. The reason I say "sort of" is because an MOU is just the first step in a long process of getting orders firmed up.

Read about it here.

This is about three 747s a year through 2022. If Boeing can sign a few more airlines, like Cargolux, to similar deals, they very well could keep the 747 line churning at twelve or so frames a year into the 2020s. Exciting news.

ABC Wants Another 747-8F, Quick

AirBridgeCargo has publicly stated they're taking a new 747-8F for delivery in October of this year. That's exciting news, but the interesting question is "Which one?". Here are the realistic options:

• Line 1437 - The last remaining Atlas NTU still unspoken for. She's a bit heavy, but she's extremely available. Currently this frame is down in Victorville for some unknown reason. Could she be getting new engines and paint? Likelihood: HIGH.
• Line 1485/7/9) - NCA has three frames prepared and waiting for delivery. Two are in storage in the desert, one is at KPAE. NCA has a history of swapping 747-400F frames with ABC. However, line 1489, the newest one and still at KPAE, was just painted in NCA colors after being bare for a year. This points to NCA still planning on taking all three frames. Likelihood: LOW
• Line 1501/2 (Customer code) It's unclear who these frames are for. Originally they were suspected to be for Silk Way, but now one has a grey tail and the other is unpainted. They've both flown and are airworthy. My main reservation is that they have the same customer code, which indicates they're likely for the same customer. Unless something has changed. Likelihood: MEDIUM HIGH

AirBridgeCargo also stated they want to eventually move to an all 747-8F fleet. They currently have eight 747-400. One is set to be returned to the lessor, and it was just replaced by line 1376. All of ABC's 747-400 frames are quite young. If they're leases, that doesn't matter so much. This means there could be potential for six to eight 747-8F orders over the next few years.

UPDATE: Looks like the answer is - Line 1501 (RC671) VQ-BVR... which really makes me wonder what the hell is going on with line 1437.

UPDATE 2: Nope. Line 1505 (RC564?) VQ-BVR

Cathay takes one for the road

Cathay Pacific announced today an order for one 747-8F which will bring their total fleet to 14. I was hoping for more, but one is better than none. Cathay's VLA passenger plans are clearly 100% focused on the 777 unfortunately for the 747-8. In other Cathay updates, they took delivery of line 1486 (RC563) B-LJM on the 23rd.

Also delivered was AirBridgeCargo's final frame, line 1483 (RC605) VQ-BRJ. This, along with the paper delivery of line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines, marks the end of the desert storage saga, at east for now. All 747-8s that were parked in the desert over the last year or so have now been delivered.

It's looking like 23 deliveries for 2013, unless line 1488 (RC549) HL7624 for Korean can squeeze out the door before the end of the year. That's down from 31 last year, but still a healthy number.

Second 747-8 PIP Delivery

Today, Cathay Pacific took delivery of line 1484 (RC562) B-LJL, marking the second delivery of a 747-8 with PIP engines. Deja vu, two deliveries in two days. The third should happen in the next few days.

Line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ also paper delivered to NCA two days ago, and should fly away soon. On deck for 2013 still are lines 1483 (RC605) VQ-BRJ for ABC and 1488 (RC549) HL7624 Korean Air Cargo, but the latter is looking like a stretch with only one test flight so far.

You might notice the bottom of the chart has four new Intercontinentals added. Two of those are for Lufthansa, which gave me a sigh of relief. I was a bit paranoid they were going to cancel the last four orders and stick with 15 747-8Is, after they cancelled a few A380s earlier this year. Now it looks like they're going ahead with all 19 747-8Is, and possibly 20 if they end up taking line 1435 (RC021) D-ABYE back. I say add another five to fill up the alphabet (D-ABYZ?). Not including that extra letter in the German alphabet of course (D-ABYß?).

Looking Like 23 Deliveries For 2013

Blogger.com is blocked from China, as is a bunch of other stuff. I found a way to keep the chart updated though.

So I missed all the excitement of all three new Cathay frames having B1s over 4 days (and it was almost three consecutive). That would be lines 1483 (RC561) B-LJK, 1484 (RC562) B-LJL, and 1486 (RC563) B-LJM.

It looks like between these three and lines 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ (for NCA) and 1483 (RC605) VQ-BRJ (for ABC), Boeing is really pushing to get them out before the end of the year, which would give us 23 deliveries for 2013.

I scored three 747-400 rides this trip, and it's good to see so much 747 activity at the big airports. It's not what it used to be but there are still a lot of them taxiing around. I flew on RP-C7472 (line 1012 for Philippines from LAX to MNL), B-HUF (line 993 for Cathay from HKG to TPE), and B-18207 (line 1176 for China Airlines from TPE to LAX), with a bonus short hop in an A340 from MNL to HKG on the outgoing, which happens to be my favorite Airbus. It was scheduled for an A330, which is the most boring airliner in existence to me, so the swap was a great surprise. A340-300 RP-C3438 was fresh over from Iberia to Philippines Airlines, still with the old Iberia livery minus branding.

Saw a lot of 747-8s on this trip too. Can't wait to fly in one. They really are the best looking version of the best looking airliner ever made. Here are some pics:

RP-C7472 - don't those engines just give you warm fuzzies?

Upper Deck!

RP-C3438 still wearing old clothes.

Hong Kong - How many 747-8s can you count?

D-ABYF at Hong Kong.

B-HUF ready for a short hop to Taiwan.

There isn't always time for a great pic, but gotta get the tail number. Funny thing was the cute flight attendant listed it off from memory before I took this shot to verify. I'm in love.

Need For (Ground) Speed Baby!!

Rise From Your Grave(yard) Part Deux - Part 2

Ok, they're both back at KPAE now. This means there are now no 747-8s left in desert storage.

Line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for NCA (pic by Matt Cawby)

 

Line 1482 (RC605) VQ-BRJ for AirBridgeCargo

Rise From Your Grave(yard) Part Deux

Matt Cawby tweeted that the last two frames in storage, line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines and line 1482 (RC605) VQ-BRJ for AirBridgeCargo, will head back to KPAE today. NCA 747-8s are all over KPAE right now!

 Update: Didn't happen. But line 1437 (RC573) went for a flight with the FAA on board. And she has blue engines now. What could this mean? If this were a good blog I could tell you :(

Pic by Matt Cawby.

There was an airworthiness directive issued today for 747-8s about a missing bushing that could lead to problems.

RIP 747-400 line 927 JA8957 for ANA. She goes to her doom at Tupelo, the saddest place in the world for a 747 fan. The locals must have gotten a kick seeing this colorful bird come in for a landing.

Two From the Desert Enter Service

Yesterday line 1478 (RC509) LX-VCI delivered to Cargolux after a two month stay in the desert. (UPDATE: named "City of Troisvierges")

Today line 1463 (RC604) VQ-BRH delivered to AirBridgeCargo after a six month stay in the desert.

So there's hope for these stored frames yet. They won't all end up like line 1416.

"What's that green stuff?" says VQ-BRH after 6 months staring at sand. Thanks to mzunguwamap.

Bad news, Good news...

Lufthansa's order has been made official. 34 777-9Xs and 25 A350-900s. This order is mostly bad news for the prospects of 747-8I sales. I had thought this order was going to be 25/25 of each widebody twin, solely targeting the replacement of Lufthansa's 50 A340s (300 and 600 models), and leaving the late model 747-400s for a future order. It turns out that this order is targeting the replacement of their late model 747-400s as well.

Bad news:

• Newer model 747-400s will be replaced with 777-9Xs
• Unlikely Lufthansa will order any significant amount of additional 747-8Is in the future

Good news:

• Newer 747-400s will fly their full life span (22-24 years) before being retired by 2025
• A340-600s (fellow four holers) will fly a good life span (16-18 years) before being retired by 2025
• Lufthansa will take delivery of all 19 747-8Is, and plans for them to be a key part of their long haul fleet in 2025 (implying they'll remain in service well past that date)

In other good news:

• Line 1435 (RC021) continues her flight test program, now 300+ hours in, testing new engines, tail tank, and other things
• Line 1437 (RC573) is back in the air. Could it be nearing a sale?
• Line 1463 (RC604) VQ-BRH for AirBridgeCargo is back at the delivery center, hopefully to fly into service soon

And lastly, because I was bored and it's a 2+ year old frame flying for the first time, here's 787 line 36 (ZA381) B-2726 for China Southern taking to the skies. And seeing as she's meant for China Southern, this means that she'll probably deliver sometime in the next 12-24 months.

Air Force One

Businessweek has an article on the next Air Force One. It looks like Boeing is going to be the sole bidder, and the speculation is that the US Government will want three 747-8Is. The problem is they don't want them until after 2020, and with the current sales rate of the 747-8, there's concern if the line can stay open that long. The solution to that problem is to sell more frames. Seems simple enough.

Speaking of sales, Lufthansa is rumored to be ordering 50 wide bodies, a mixture of Boeing 777X and Airbus A350. 747 haters on various forums are declaring this to be the end of the 747-8I, getting so ridiculous as to state these 777X will replace the 747-8I prematurely and Boeing will buy the 747-8Is back. Lufthansa, however, previously stated this order was to focus on replacing their A340s, some of which are extremely young (which is sad; I really like the A340). So, there's no basis for this anti 747 speculation. I speculate the people spreading this nonsense are A380 fans who view the 747-8 as a nuisance. The truth is neither frame is selling well due to much deeper reasons than competition with each other. I'm hoping those reasons dissipate and both frames see strong success. I'm still expecting Lufthansa to place a top up order for both the 747-8I and the A380 at some point. We will see.

Line 1463 (RC604) VQ-BRH for AirBridgeCargo (formerly stored at Pinal Airpark for half a year) delivered this week, and should fly off next week.

4 Holers > 2 Holers

What would have been a catastrophic incident in a two engine ship was just another Wednesday at the office for AirBridgeCargo line 1430 (RC601) VQ-BGZ.

In other news, I visited Tupelo, Mississippi today, and have some really cool pictures and video to post. I'm on vacation so it'll probably take me a few days to sort through them and post them, but here's a teaser:

The 747-400 formerly known as N195UA.

If you don't like the state she's in, you really won't like what N193UA is looking like these days.

Also, thanks for 50,000 hits!

Free Boeing / ABC Ready for delivery?

Firstly, a committee in the UK has dismissed a complaint by Airbus over a Boeing claim that the 747-8I is 8% more efficient than an A380. Airbus said Boeing crammed too many seats in their plane to make it an apples to apples comparison. They might have a point, but still, my question is "who cares?". Fleet managers aren't making decisions based off advertisements like this, and most of the public (and press) can't tell a 747 from a 737. Much ado over little.

Secondly, for the second time in a few days, line 1463 (RC604) VQ-BRH has been scheduled to return to KPAE from Pinal Airpark where she's been stored for six months. If this flight actually happens this time, it looks like AirBridgeCargo might be finally ready to take delivery of another frame. That would be wonderful.

UPDATE: Line 1463 en route to KPAE!

Here are pictures of 787 line 21 (ZA176) JA-823J for Japan Airlines taking off on a B1. As you might know I have a special place in my heart for planes that sit around a long time before flying, and this one sat for something like four years since leaving the final assembly line, so I'm unofficially poaching this event from All Things 787.

Line 1482 First Flight

Line 1482 (RC605) VQ-BRJ for AirBridgeCargo took off for a first flight today. 747-8 production activity has been slow recently, so here are a bunch of pictures of her returning to KPAE. I'm not sure when this frame will deliver. ABC has one in storage already, but they might be approaching the point of taking one for delivery, which could be this one. Or she might be destined for storage, we'll just have to wait and see. Big pic was taken by Vintage Racer.

The Last First Flight

For a frame in the overdue category at least. Line 1433 (RC553) B-LJC for Cathay Pacific took off today for the first time, well over two years after rolling off the assembly line and starting her long slumber, stored in various places around KPAE in an unflyable state. This marks the last "old frame" that needed refurbishment to take to the air; all of the old frames have now flown, and as such it's sort of a milestone for the program. Boeing can start focusing all resources on new build frames, shaving off weight and optimizing performance. B-LJC should deliver towards the middle of next month, after some more test flights and a fresh paint job. Thanks to Roy Yang for the pics (which show a very dirty airplane).

Also, line 1482 (RC605) VQ-BRJ for AirBridgeCargo rolled off the FAL, as you can see in the top picture. Judging by my rough rollout date records, they're likely already producing new frames at the adjusted 1.75 per month rate.