Speculation About Lines 1435 and 1437

The fates for lines 1435 and 1437 are still unclear.

Line 1435 has finished certification testing and is sitting on the KPAE flight line. It's not apparent if she's getting refurbishment done yet. Boeing has her earmarked internally for Lufthansa once again, but it's uncertain if this is real or some clerical anomoly, as nothing has been officially announced. I'm reluctant to get my hopes up, because it would make me really happy to see line 1435 finally end up as D-ABYE and be a real passenger airliner with a long career. If she goes to waste as a VIP frame, it'll be disappointing. I know VIP 747s have to exist, but they really are poor utilization of a good frame. Another possibility is that Transaero might take her up as one of their four (soon to be firm) orders.

Line 1437 has flown quite a bit over the past few months. I'm guessing she was used in some of the certification testing. Her engine cowls were painted Atlas blue recently, and along with this news that Atlas has expanded its 747-8F wet leasing, starting in February 2014 with BST Logistics in Hong Kong, I'm wondering if Atlas will take back their unwanted frame.

Again, this is mostly speculation. We'll just have to wait and see.

One Million Dollars Per Year

The title sums up the results of the performance improvements being introduced on new 747-8s. One million in fuel costs saved per frame, per year. The improvements itemized:

• 7,700 lbs removed
• 1.8% fuel burn reduction in the engines
• Tail tank enabled, with software modification to keep fuel in the tail to reduce the need for trim.
• FMC improvements, including RNP AR and improved climb functions
• 3.5% fuel burn improvement overall

These improvements will all be delivering this year. Boeing plans on continuing to improve the performance of the 747-8 as well. In a few more years it might actually take off with empty tanks and land twelve hours later with them overflowing.

In other rumors, Cathay's 14th frame has shown up on the charts, although it has yet to be ordered. Another interesting thing is line 1435 (RC021), the current test frame for the above improvements and former Lufthansa D-ABYE, is once again listed internally as earmarked for Lufthansa. This could be a clerical error, but I'm hopeful Lufthansa has had a change of heart.

Transaero Expects Four 747-8Is in 2015

Transaearo has had an MOU (memorandum of understanding) for four 747-8Is in with Boeing for a while now, but little has been heard about firming them up. Some were starting to think it will never happen. Well, just recently in an interview with ATW, Transaero CEO Olga Pleshakova stated they'll have their four new 747-8Is in 2015, and they'll use them in a premier heavy layout similar to Lufthansa. A couple interesting things come from this:

• These four frames could be the other four commitments in this story, meaning there's another customer new to the 747 ready to buy other frames beyond the eleven mentioned.
• Could Transaero be taking line 1435 (RC021) after it gets refurbished? They're happily taking early 787 models, so it's a possibility. I really don't want line 1435 going to waste as a BBJ.

Bad news, Good news...

Lufthansa's order has been made official. 34 777-9Xs and 25 A350-900s. This order is mostly bad news for the prospects of 747-8I sales. I had thought this order was going to be 25/25 of each widebody twin, solely targeting the replacement of Lufthansa's 50 A340s (300 and 600 models), and leaving the late model 747-400s for a future order. It turns out that this order is targeting the replacement of their late model 747-400s as well.

Bad news:

• Newer model 747-400s will be replaced with 777-9Xs
• Unlikely Lufthansa will order any significant amount of additional 747-8Is in the future

Good news:

• Newer 747-400s will fly their full life span (22-24 years) before being retired by 2025
• A340-600s (fellow four holers) will fly a good life span (16-18 years) before being retired by 2025
• Lufthansa will take delivery of all 19 747-8Is, and plans for them to be a key part of their long haul fleet in 2025 (implying they'll remain in service well past that date)

In other good news:

• Line 1435 (RC021) continues her flight test program, now 300+ hours in, testing new engines, tail tank, and other things
• Line 1437 (RC573) is back in the air. Could it be nearing a sale?
• Line 1463 (RC604) VQ-BRH for AirBridgeCargo is back at the delivery center, hopefully to fly into service soon

And lastly, because I was bored and it's a 2+ year old frame flying for the first time, here's 787 line 36 (ZA381) B-2726 for China Southern taking to the skies. And seeing as she's meant for China Southern, this means that she'll probably deliver sometime in the next 12-24 months.

Various

D-ABYI went for her first revenue flight today (that link will only work for about four months after this post). Welcome to the working world "I", may your career last 120,000 hours or more. She's at about 30 hours as of this post; 119,970 to go.

Three frames were up today for test flights: Nippon Cargo line 1479, Cargolux line 1478, and Unclaimed line 1437. Unclaimed is sure hanging around Paine Field for a long time. I'd think she'd be in storage by now. Hopefully that means they're finding her a home...?

An article here has some more detail on 747-8 improvements. A lot we might have heard before. 747 program v-p and general manager Eric Lindblad says that current frames are 5,600 pounds lighter than those originally delivered, and Boeing has identified ways to drop another 1,600 pounds; in all, the savings contribute some 2 percent to operating efficiency. He also says he'd like the total weight loss to reach 10,000 pounds, and perhaps increase the -8I’s range to 8,200 nm, by around 2016. The article also acknowledges that all unfinished frames have been refurbished, so the 747 build team can get back to focusing on building new frames. Well, I guess there's still line 1435.

Come on Paris, give us another 747-8 order!

First and Second First Flights...

Line 1478 (RC509) LX-VCI for Cargolux made its first flight today.

In bigger news, line 1435 (RC021) officially kicked off the new 747-8 test program today, going on its first flight since receiving major modifications to enable the tail fuel tank, as well as brand new and improved engines. This is 1435's first flight in over a year. Improvements scheduled to be tested and certified are the tail fuel tank, engine PIPs (with an "up to approximately 2%" fuel burn improvement), and flight computer improvements. All of these changes, plus substantial weight reduction, should coalesce for the first time in line 1492, resulting in an even more efficient 747-8I (and F as well, minus the tail fuel tank as far as I've heard).

It's a busy Monday at KPAE for sure. Usually a very quiet day, today we have a 747-8F first flight, a 747-8 test program first flight and kick off, two deliveries (a 777 and a 767), and a 787 first flight.