KPAE Backed Up With 747-8s, D-ABYL Delivers

Line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL, #10 for Lufthansa delivered on Thursday. Lufthansa should take #11 in the next couple of weeks. Here's D-ABYL arriving in Frankfurt, Germany:

Deliveries need to pick up indeed, because a rather substantial backlog has built up over the past six months or so at Paine Field. It seems a lot of cargo operators are in no hurry to take their frames. There are twelve frames sitting at KPAE currently, and only two are older frames. Cargolux has two ready to start test flying. NCA has three frames in waiting (one has flown, one needs engines, one needs engines and paint). Their last delivered, line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ, hasn't flown since her delivery flight almost a month ago according to FlightRadar and FlightAware. They must be having some logistic or scheduling problems, because it shouldn't take a month to get a freighter into service. It'll be interesting to see how quickly Silk Way takes up the two frames currently on the flight line earmarked for them. One bit of good news is that line 1481 (RC548) HL7623 for Korean Air Cargo finally has engines and paint.

Hopefully, along with the slower production rate, this 747-8 backlog can clear out over the next two to three months.

D-ABYM First Flight, Seahawks First Superbowl Win

Line 1494 (RC032) D-ABYM for Lufthansa went up on a first flight today. Also, line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL for Lufthansa should deliver really soon.

And the Seattle Seahawks won their first Super Bowl against the Denver Broncos. Yup, I'm calling it. It must have been due to that lucky 747-8F line 1437 (RC573). Congratulations to all the fans on the 747 assembly line.

Somebody buy that lucky frame!

New 747-8I Orders

Boeing updated their final order and delivery tally for 2013, and they're showing that they did in fact deliver 24 frames last year. But more exciting are six new firm orders for the 747-8I. Transaero finally firmed up their four MOUs, and two more are showing for an unidentified customer. Let the speculation begin! Top up? New operator? BBJ? El Presidente?

Meanwhile, line 1494 (RC032) D-ABYM for Lufthansa finally really rolled out, and line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL went up for a first flight. Also, line 1493 (RC641) for GE Capital Aviation Services entered then paint hanger, so we should see who she's for in a week or so.

Here's line 1492 returning from her B1:

Sound of Silence

The Dubai Air Show is happening, and the big Middle East carriers are ordering 1 billion planes, none of which are 747-8s. It's disheartening for a 747-8 fan. The capacity Emirates ordered between their 150 777X and 50 A380 purchase is astounding. Either Emirates is onto something that no other carrier is aware of, or they're going too big too fast. It'll be interesting to see. Either way, it would've been great if there were twenty or thirty 747-8s in that order somewhere, but alas there aren't. My hopes of Emirates or Etihad buying into it now have almost entirely evaporated.

Around KPAE, I've identified the mysterious white tail. Cargolux line 1491 (RC511) LX-VCK snuck out of the final assembly line on us a few weeks back. Lufthansa's tenth frame, line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL, rolled out with engines. This is the first frame to incorporate all of the performance improvements directly out of the FAL. A couple recent frames have been painted, had engines installed, and even had engine runs. However, it's really getting late to deliver these frames in 2013, and activity has been very slow. Either the three new Cathay frames start flying soon or they must be planning on the deliveries slipping to 2014.

Lufthansa line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL, by Matt Cawby

And in bragging news, I'm going on a business trip to China tomorrow for a week, and I scored an upper deck business class seat in a Philippines 747-400. I'm pretty excited as I've never gotten to fly in the upper deck before. #ballin

2% Fuel Burn Improvement

Update: Mario in the comments posted the full story here. Talk of four commitments from a new customer!

Glenn Farley is reporting that Boeing is seeing a 2% fuel burn improvement from their ongoing test program for the 747-8. He's also saying Boeing is optimistic about the future of the jet due to the experience Lufthansa is having with it.

Line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL, 747-8I #10 for Lufthansa, in Final Assembly

Lufthansa, however, recently cancelled three A380 orders, saying they're lowering their growth targets. I had assumed they were going to increase their A380 order by two as opposed to lower it by three; a swing of five frames. I was also hopeful they'd top off their 747-8I order. Could the cancelling of the A380s mean they have no interest in more 747-8Is? Could it mean they'd rather have five more 747-8Is instead of five more A380s? One can only speculate.

Block Change (?)

Line 1488 (RC549) for Korean Air Cargo rolled out from the final assembly line yesterday or today, which means line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL started final assembly. This is the frame that I believe signals a block change for

• Lower weight
• Tail tank enabled
• 1.75 frames a month

among other things. We'll have to watch the roll out dates to verify.

Here's Matt Cawby's pic of line 1488: