Some Not So Good News

Gimme the bad news first doc:

1.) Boeing is slowing down the 747-8 production rate from 1.5 frames a month to 1.3 frames a month. Or in other words, 18 frames a year to 15.5 frames a year. This stretches out the current backlog to about two years, but it's clearly not a good sign for demand. And even though that means the last currently ordered frame would be built in about two years (early 2017), the reality is that things are even more pressing for Boeing suppliers. They have to manufacture parts for 747s a substantial amount of time before a plane is completed, so the supplier backlog may run out in as soon as a year.

The 747 production line heading forward can probably be slowed down to about one frame a month, or twelve a year. This gives Boeing probably two more opportunities in the future to announce slowdowns before they would have to realistically address shutting down the line. With slowdowns like these, they can probably stretch the backlog out through 2017.

The other alternative is that Boeing needs to sell 15 frames a year to keep things chugging a long. Last year, they did pretty well, selling 12 net (17 gross) airframes. This year has been dire though, with a big fat zero net sales (two gross). After the Asiana cancellation, I'm losing confidence that they'll be able to sell any substantial amount of frames moving forward. There are still potential sales out there, but the longer things drag on with silence, the closer we get to the 778F, the less likely they seem to happen.

2.) Asiana NTU's were confirmed by Boeing. That'll be a total of four white tails, plus line 1437, which may or may not already have a customer.

Asiana Drama Bomba

The unofficial word is that Asiana was looking to buy four or five 747-8Fs. Lines 1501, 1502, 1520, and 1521 were supposedly earmarked for them, and it seemed to be going that direction, with line 1501 getting Asiana grey on her tail and nacelles.

The paint tells the story however, and now lines 1501 and 1502 have gotten full "white tail" paint jobs and look headed for a long stay in the desert under ownership of Boeing. Judging from this order of events, it seems the Asiana deal has been taken off the table.

This is sad. But more worrisome are the apparent conditions of this deal. Now, to be clear, this is all my speculation, but it seems Boeing built two freighters for an airline without a deal in place. If this was a standard deal, there'd be heavy penalties in place Asiana would have to pay if they cancelled. This seemed to be more of a good faith thing on Boeing's part, building first and assuming a deal could be worked out. That shows some desperation, not surprisingly, on the 747 sales front.

Because this is mostly speculation from what is observable, this could be inaccurate and Asiana could have just delayed the deal for half a year or more. But if they did cancel, why? They already operate the 747-400 freighter, including some very old and ill-favored 747-400BCF (Boeing Converted Freighter), so they would seem a prime target for the 748F.

Worst of all, now I'll have two more stored 747s to obsess over for the next god-knows-how-long...

Is She Or Isn't She?

Currently all four 747s in the FAL are for Lufthansa. As of now, these are the last four 747s for LH, and should all deliver in the first half of 2015.

Which brings up line 1435... A great picture of her came out the other day, and Boeing engineers are strapping engines back on, which means they're probably nearing completion of refurbishment. So is Lufthansa going to take her? That's still uncertain. At least the nacelles are still Lufthansa grey. I'm hoping for an official announcement with a top up order in the next few months.

Found on http://airwaysnews.com

Happy Birthday Line 1416, LX-ECV

How quickly a year flies by, and how fast those hours add up! Just over a year ago, after a stillbirth and over four years of desert storage with barely twenty hours on the clock, line 1416 entered into service with Cargolux as LX-ECV, . She's doing much better now, traveling the world, but mostly focusing on Europe to South America and back. Cargolux keeps her busy too. It's truly a happy ending (so far) for this formerly neglected frame.

Could she be the last 744 in service one day? Will she ever receive a full livery? We shall see!

Line 1437 Might Have a Home

Rumor is that Saudi Arabian Cargo will take a third 747-8F, and logically that'll probably be the sister ship to their current two frames: Line 1437 RC523 HZ-AI5 (the last of the three early Atlas NTUs). Makes sense, and I hope it happens. 1437 has been seeing some activity lately, so let's see if she gets a new paint job to confirm.