Happy Second Birthday Line 1416!

(In service birthday, at least). My how time flies.

Happy Birthday Line 1416, LX-ECV

How quickly a year flies by, and how fast those hours add up! Just over a year ago, after a stillbirth and over four years of desert storage with barely twenty hours on the clock, line 1416 entered into service with Cargolux as LX-ECV, . She's doing much better now, traveling the world, but mostly focusing on Europe to South America and back. Cargolux keeps her busy too. It's truly a happy ending (so far) for this formerly neglected frame.

Could she be the last 744 in service one day? Will she ever receive a full livery? We shall see!

Line 1416 in service

Line 1416 LX-ECV for Cargolux got a little bit more livery added to her, with the company emblem painted on her tail. She's been in service for eight months already. How long will she fly? I would say it's either:

• another 9 months, if she's due a D check at the six year mark
• another 5 years, if the D check time frame is put on hold while properly stored
• either of the above plus 6, 12, or 18 years, due to D checks being every 6 years for 747-400s.

So I'm hoping for another 23 years, personally.

From Planespotters

Happy 1/10th Birthday, Line 1416

Some good pictures of line 1416 LX-ECV for Cargolux in action have popped up at Widebodies. She's one tenth of a year old (at least in in-service years) now. Not much of a livery but at least there's something. Even if they park her again after three months, I can die knowing the frame wasn't totally wasted.

Pic 1

Pic 2 

And here just last week in Brazil.

Video of takeoff from Afonso Pena International Airport. (ruined by youtube's smoothing algorithm but better than nothing).

Paine Field activity isn't exactly electrifying right now. Cathay's new triplets are still being tested, but it's getting late for them to really contribute to the holiday rush. Korean Air Cargo's line 1488 (RC549) HL7624 is pending a first flight. It's strange that this frame is in flight test while line 1481 (RC548) also for KAC has been sitting unpainted and un-engined for six months.

Predicting the End of Year Deliveries

First, it's been tough keeping the chart 100% accurate lately. It's not just the many unpainted, un-engined frames that have been sitting around KPAE. There are very few flight line shots taken to reference these days. I'm left to pick 747s from the corners of cropped photos targeting less interesting planes to keep the chart up to date, and I often have to guess or speculate. I appreciate any missed observations left in the comments section.

One mystery is the white rudder 747 on the tower apron, and the other parked in stall 120 (at least as of a couple days ago). One has got to be NCA line 1489, but all other frames that would be white rudder tails have been verified as being painted. Even if Cargolux line 1491 just rolled out unpainted with white rudder, these two frames have been showing up in pictures for at least a week or two. Unless it was a really well timed swap?

Line 1416 LX-ECV for Cargolux is in service with a white paint job. She's flying in to Atlanta tonight. Anyone there to get some pics?

Ok, now down to the main topic. How many 747-8s will deliver in 2013? So far we've had 17 frames delivered. Looking towards the end of the year, these are the remaining possibilities (notice they are all freighters):

1. 1469 (RC524) JA14KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
2. 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
3. 1482 (RC605) VQ-BRJ for AirBridgeCargo
4. 1483 (RC561) B-LJK for Cathay
5. 1484 (RC562) B-LJL for Cathay
6. 1486 (RC563) B-LJM cor Cathay
7. 1481 (RC548)  ? for Korean Air Cargo
8. 1488 (RC549)  ? for Korean Air Cargo
9. 1485 (RC526) JA16KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
10. 1487 (RC527) JA17KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
11. 1490 (RC510) LX-VCJ for Cargolux
12. 1489 (RC528) JA18KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
13. 1437 (RC573)
14. 1491 (RC511) LX-VCK for Cargolux

I've color code them by likelihood. 1 and 2 will most likely deliver because they're ready, and NCA stated they plan on three total this year; so far they've only taken one (line 1421, which by the way just entered service). 4, 5, and 6 will probably deliver because Cathay plans on having all three before the end of the year, and they all have engines and paint jobs. The one major thing that could stop these deliveries is the FAA failing to punctually certify the big changes these frames incorporate. 3 will deliver because ABC just parked a 747-400F to make room for it. 7 might deliver to Korean, as it has engines and it's tentatively scheduled to deliver in December. 8 might take 7's spot, or less likely join it. 9, 10, and 12 probably won't deliver because NCA said they plan on taking the next three frames in 2014, and they don't have engines yet. 11 and 14 are distant possibilities, and 13 is another distant possibility, depending on if it has a customer and what their timetable would be.

According to 747Classic on airliners.net, the following are officially scheduled for December, but Boeing schedules are fluid:

L/N1482 RC605 ABC

L/N1483 RC561 Cathay

L/N1484 RC562 Cathay

L/N1486 RC563 Cathay

L/N1488 RC549 KAL

So low end 20, absolute high end 31. Most likely, we're looking at around 23-24 747-8s being delivered for the year of 2013.

Update: It's been pointed out that NCA's plan to take three frames in 2013 is actually for their fiscal year, which ends in April 2014, so line 1479 could slip past December.

A Tribute to a Really Overdue Delivery (Lucky) #7: Line 1416 (747-400)

Line 1416. The poor 747-400ERF, neglected, unloved, unwanted. Four and a half years old. Sitting in the desert for over four of those long, lonesome years...

OK, I'm being overly sappy. I'll stop. But the BIG NEWS today is that line 1416 is officially in business with new owner Cargolux. She flew out of Pinal Airpark straight to Anchorage and into service.

Line 1416 is now Cargolux LX-ECV.

A little trip down memory lane is called for. Line 1416 rolled out of the FAL late February 2009.

At the fuel dock after roll out, by Matt Cawby

At the compass rose, by Matt Cawby

She had her first flight March 21st, 2009. She was supposed to be 9K-DAA for LoadAir Cargo, along with sister ship line 1419 (the last 747-400 built).

Lining up for first flight, by Matt Cawby

Returning from first flight.

A test flight in April 2009, by Matt Cawby

LoadAir Cargo went out of business, and Line 1416 was given the Boeing tail N797BA. She took a short hop to Vancouver before heading to Pinal Airpark, where she ended up sitting for over four years. 

Leaving for storage, by Matt Cawby

There were suitors along the way, but every deal fell through for one reason or another. Her sister in exile, line 1419 was bought by Kalitta in 2011 and has been cruising the skies ever since.

Behind line 1419.

On the right, next to sister ship line 1419, by AirTeamImages

All alone now...

After a promising deal with Qantas Freight fell through earlier this year, it seemed 1416 would never fly again, but Cargolux must have seized the opportunity and swooped in to the rescue.

Returning from a first flight out of storage, by azspyder

Cargolux is a great operator for line 1416. They heavily utilize their 747s, and send them to all four corners of the Earth. I can't wait to catch her in full livery at various airports around the world. Overdue is an understatement in this case, but it makes this delivery so much more savory.

Delivery flight. Arriving in Anchorage.

Line 1416 to Cargolux?

Update: Still haven't been able to ascertain exactly which frame this is. Flight radar lists no registration.
 ______

This is pure speculation right now, but a 747-400 just left Pinal Airpark, flight CLX789, headed for Anchorage. As far as I can tell, there were no Cargolux 747-400s at Pinal. Also, 1416 went for a test flight about four weeks ago, which is enough time for a paint job. Is it possible Cargolux picked up line 1416?

Oh... My... God...

Line 1416 is scheduled for a test flight this morning.

UPDATE: SHE'S FLYING

And landed. Unless she crash landed in the desert near the border, I'm guessing Flight Aware is screwing up, and the flight lasted about 100 minutes. First flight in four years, and she might have crossed 20 hours total flight time now.

So 1416 most likely has a customer. Woo hoo! Can't wait to see her painted so we can know who it is.

Two From the Desert Enter Service

Yesterday line 1478 (RC509) LX-VCI delivered to Cargolux after a two month stay in the desert. (UPDATE: named "City of Troisvierges")

Today line 1463 (RC604) VQ-BRH delivered to AirBridgeCargo after a six month stay in the desert.

So there's hope for these stored frames yet. They won't all end up like line 1416.

"What's that green stuff?" says VQ-BRH after 6 months staring at sand. Thanks to mzunguwamap.

1416 Not Going Anywhere, 1421 Going Somewhere

I know it was only a rumor initially, and I know this is just a post on a forum and could very well be dubious, but here's an apparent insider memo from Qantas Freight saying they've cancelled plans to take up a new 747-400ERF which was likely to have been line 1416. I believe it, because who would bother making stuff like this up? It's maddening... Maybe Kalitta will jump in and take advantage of this situation. It's really embarrassing how inept Boeing has been in finding an operator for this brand new frame. Four and a half years now.

1416 gets me all emotional.

In better news, line 1421 (RC521) JA11KZ for Nippon Cargo was up on a functional check flight, which means they're probably getting her ready for delivery before the end of the year. NCA is still slated to take delivery of three more 747-8Fs before years end, and I think they'll take this one and the two in storage, while the newer three frames wait for improved engines and deliver next year.

Rise From Your Grave(yard)

Line 1478 (RC509) LX-VCI for Cargolux has returned from a short (two month) stint of storage at Pinal Airpark. This probably means she'll deliver in September. That's the second frame to come out of storage now, and it's a welcome sign to see that these frames aren't all going to sit around for years like line 1416.

Speaking of 1416, the talk on the net is heavily leaning towards Qantas Cargo taking her up into service by the end of the year. Nothing's a done deal till it's done, but if it does happen I'm gonna have to post the mother of all tributes...

B-LJC, Fresh

Line 1433 (RC553) B-LJC returned to KPAE today with a fresh coat of paint. She's scheduled to deliver this month. Photographed here leaving Portland thanks to Sabian404.

Lufthansa line 1477 (RC029) D-ABYJ entered passenger service with a trip to Hong Kong on the 12th, but oddly just started registering on Flight Aware and Flight Radar today. She's been christened "Hannover".

Poor line 1416. When will you spread your wings?!

Line 1416 to Qantas?

Qantas is replacing a wet leased (from Atlas) older 747F with a "near new" 747-400ERF. Could it be line 1416? The other options would be one of the four remaining former Jade ERFs (see my chart) which could also be called "near new". We'll find out sometime this year.