Predicting the End of Year Deliveries

First, it's been tough keeping the chart 100% accurate lately. It's not just the many unpainted, un-engined frames that have been sitting around KPAE. There are very few flight line shots taken to reference these days. I'm left to pick 747s from the corners of cropped photos targeting less interesting planes to keep the chart up to date, and I often have to guess or speculate. I appreciate any missed observations left in the comments section.

One mystery is the white rudder 747 on the tower apron, and the other parked in stall 120 (at least as of a couple days ago). One has got to be NCA line 1489, but all other frames that would be white rudder tails have been verified as being painted. Even if Cargolux line 1491 just rolled out unpainted with white rudder, these two frames have been showing up in pictures for at least a week or two. Unless it was a really well timed swap?

Line 1416 LX-ECV for Cargolux is in service with a white paint job. She's flying in to Atlanta tonight. Anyone there to get some pics?

Ok, now down to the main topic. How many 747-8s will deliver in 2013? So far we've had 17 frames delivered. Looking towards the end of the year, these are the remaining possibilities (notice they are all freighters):

1. 1469 (RC524) JA14KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
2. 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
3. 1482 (RC605) VQ-BRJ for AirBridgeCargo
4. 1483 (RC561) B-LJK for Cathay
5. 1484 (RC562) B-LJL for Cathay
6. 1486 (RC563) B-LJM cor Cathay
7. 1481 (RC548)  ? for Korean Air Cargo
8. 1488 (RC549)  ? for Korean Air Cargo
9. 1485 (RC526) JA16KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
10. 1487 (RC527) JA17KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
11. 1490 (RC510) LX-VCJ for Cargolux
12. 1489 (RC528) JA18KZ for Nippon Cargo Airlines
13. 1437 (RC573)
14. 1491 (RC511) LX-VCK for Cargolux

I've color code them by likelihood. 1 and 2 will most likely deliver because they're ready, and NCA stated they plan on three total this year; so far they've only taken one (line 1421, which by the way just entered service). 4, 5, and 6 will probably deliver because Cathay plans on having all three before the end of the year, and they all have engines and paint jobs. The one major thing that could stop these deliveries is the FAA failing to punctually certify the big changes these frames incorporate. 3 will deliver because ABC just parked a 747-400F to make room for it. 7 might deliver to Korean, as it has engines and it's tentatively scheduled to deliver in December. 8 might take 7's spot, or less likely join it. 9, 10, and 12 probably won't deliver because NCA said they plan on taking the next three frames in 2014, and they don't have engines yet. 11 and 14 are distant possibilities, and 13 is another distant possibility, depending on if it has a customer and what their timetable would be.

According to 747Classic on airliners.net, the following are officially scheduled for December, but Boeing schedules are fluid:

L/N1482 RC605 ABC

L/N1483 RC561 Cathay

L/N1484 RC562 Cathay

L/N1486 RC563 Cathay

L/N1488 RC549 KAL

So low end 20, absolute high end 31. Most likely, we're looking at around 23-24 747-8s being delivered for the year of 2013.

Update: It's been pointed out that NCA's plan to take three frames in 2013 is actually for their fiscal year, which ends in April 2014, so line 1479 could slip past December.