The Chart:

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Rise From Your Grave(yard)

Line 1478 (RC509) LX-VCI for Cargolux has returned from a short (two month) stint of storage at Pinal Airpark. This probably means she'll deliver in September. That's the second frame to come out of storage now, and it's a welcome sign to see that these frames aren't all going to sit around for years like line 1416.

Speaking of 1416, the talk on the net is heavily leaning towards Qantas Cargo taking her up into service by the end of the year. Nothing's a done deal till it's done, but if it does happen I'm gonna have to post the mother of all tributes...


  1. Global economic growth is improving, with an outlook for 2014 better than this year.

  2. Hopefully 1416 does get taken up, as I think that would be a fun tribute to see!

    With respect to the 8i, there was an interesting tidbit that came out of a post on Leeham the other day. Now, they have been bullish on the 747-8 in the past, but since the 777-9X debuted, they have been pretty much doom and gloom. They did however mention the following:

    "United Airlines and British Airways said they are down-sizing their 747-400 fleets to the A350-1000, though Boeing is pressing British to buy the 747-8I in a critical campaign. Boeing has targeted Emirates Airlines for the 8I and it wants to sell more to Lufthansa. The former seems to prefer the forthcoming 777-9X, nominally a 406 passenger airplane in three classes, and Lufthansa’s wide-body decision seems more focused on the A350 and the 787 and/or 777X."

    Have you heard anything more about any of this? I had heard that the original RFP between the 380 and 748 was very close, so I could potentially see that, however I have a hard time believing Emirates would be interested unless it was some package with the 777-9X.

    1. I haven't heard any more on this subject. I do know that Boeing has stated they have important sales initiatives in progress for the 747-8I, but they mention no particular airlines. My own speculation is maybe Delta (to replace their 10 oldest 747-400's which are all 24 years old with over 100,000 hours each), maybe Lufthansa, maybe United, Cathay, or Turkish. Maybe KLM? I could see Emirates filling 20-30 747-8Is (with their apparent need for hundreds of A380's, they have to have routes that don't quite fill an A380 and would be better off on a 747-8I) but it would be a big surprise to me. I just can't imagine Boeing going through with Project Ozark and all these efficiency improvements without some substantial sales targets beyond just making current customers happier.

    2. I forgot Etihad, another possibility.

    3. I agree with your sentiments about the constant improvements (Ozark) as well as your list of probable customers. I would think maybe some Indian and Japanese carriers if the economy continues to improve again. Also, whatever happened to the Transaero MoU? The rumored Hong Kong one has never been heard from either.

      I should clarify that my original comment regarding the RFP had to deal specifically with British Airways. I remember reading that both that RFP, as well as another one (Quantas? Singapore?) were extremely close, so perhaps with the efficiency gains and future plans, they are back on the radar.

      With the example of LH using them in a premium heavy configuration which provides for a smaller expansion in seats for economy, maybe other airlines are examining that as a viable use case.