The Chart:

Thursday, November 8, 2012

2012 Delivery Speculation - Going for a record?

Atlas's line 1467 (RC580) N853GT rolled out of the paint hanger today in DHL Polar livery.

The magic number is 31. That's how many 747s delivered back in 2001, and is the highest delivery total for a year in the 21st century. I'm hoping this year Boeing can beat it. So far, 25 frames have delivered in 2012. We need 7 more to beat the post year 2000 record.

Here's what I know is delivering before the end of 2012:
1.) Line 1465 for Cargolux.
2.) Line 1466 for Boeing Business Jets.
3.) Line 1467 for Atlas.

Here's what I think is delivering before the end of 2012:
4.) Line 1420 for Cargolux.
5.) Line 1468 for Boeing Business Jets.

That leaves two. Possibilities are:
Line 1422 for NCA.
Line 1430 for ABC.
Line 1463 for ABC.
Line 1469 for  NCA.

I'm pretty sure at least one each will deliver for NCA and ABC, which would give us 32, and the new record. Cross your fingers! This is probably the last chance, as they only produce 23-24 747 frames a year maximum right now (and demand isn't going to up that rate unless something crazy happens), and they'd only have 6 or 7 surplus frames to add to that total next year.

It looks like they're doing some serious work on line 1435's tail, the second 8I test frame destined for Lufthansa. I read somewhere that delivery of this frame has been pushed back to 2015! Wonder what's up with that...


  1. Turtle,

    What info do you have on BBJ 1468? I agree with you that 31 will be achieved this year, not including 1468 because I haven't heard anything about this frame. I think 1422 for NCA will deliver, somehow don't think they'll get 1469 ready in time for NCA's second delivery this year.

    Also think that ABC will take 1463 this year and save 1430 for next. All just total gut feelings based on delivery plans and aircraft availability.

    I think 1420 will get delivered together with 65, 66, 67 based on 747classic's info.

    That gets you to your 31, so hopefully 1468 gets on its way to its home!

    1. I'm only assuming 1468 will be delivered by the end of the year. It certainly seems possible considering the rate Boeing has been testing and delivering at recently. 1469 should be on the flight line by the end of the month. If it comes out painted, then it's also a possibility. 1468, 1469, and 1430 are the wildcards. It'd be cool to see all of them deliver for a big fat 34.

  2. Still not very impressive compared to back in '80 when 7 747's a month came out of the factory. Only recently has any other widebody been produced at such a rate (A330/B777) and never before or after as a VLA been produced at that rate.

  3. Sadly I doubt VLA's will ever be produced at that rate again, at least in the foreseeable future. But I'm still happier with 30+ deliveries than 15 or less.