The Chart:

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Korean Airlines takes their 7th

Just in before the new year, Korean Air Cargo took their 7th 747-8F this afternoon. They've retired a few youger 744Fs recently to make room for the new bird, so it's a bittersweet delivery. Line 1528 RC661 HL7639 is on her way to Korea as we speak.

78 comments:

  1. LN1437 RC573 Atlas NTU will be ferried back to Paine Field today. That's pretty unexpected.
    http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE573/history/20170206/2000Z/KMZJ/KPAE

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  2. Tra lala-lala..... lala-lala.....lala-lala..... Line Closure....lala-la..... ;)

    BTW is there a schedule for ABC's deliveries? The MOU (20 frames) is firmed and they've taken 7 frames so far but that leaves 13? frames stretched out? 13+UPS= 27 frames but the articles below says only 26 incl 4 UN frames. Is this correct??

    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... up-433912/

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    1. Yeah, because the MoU units are only placed as they are needed, they don't show up currently and people don't count them. That's probably fair as the agreement is an MoU and ABC can probably defer schedule if they need. As it stands, they are scheduled to take 2 or 3 each year over the next 5 years or so I believe.

      In terms of the FG article, I think it's much ado about nothing. It's more about Triumph being under contract through 2019 and probably trying to get out of it or re-negotiate because the rate is so slow at the moment that they are losing money on each part delivered. As the article also states, Boeing had planned on bringing that work in-house, but then changed those plans for some reason. So they may be trying to get Triumph to extend or stay on as a supplier, and if that fails, they could probably bring it in-house still.

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  3. Can't comment much on the Triumph thing, but they have inherited that contract from somebody and are obligated to meet those. Sadly if the rates plummet again, this type of thing might happen more often with other suppliers.

    However the game is not over and There is a New Admin in the WH. There is some talk of an economic revival, amidst all the negatives but we've not gone down the road sufficiently enough to see if this political change has an impact on the program up to and including program shutdown. If there is a boom and there is de-regulation, we've been down that road before (jusd ask Rob Crandall) but if its a bust, that is dire. How this translates to more frames, is anybody's guess of course.

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  4. LN1437 will be delivered to UPS!
    https://twitter.com/woody2190/status/830209100701065217

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  5. Come on Turtleluv, update that spreadsheet, 1437 is finally getting a good home! Does anyone know anything about 1535, the now final white tailed 8F?

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    1. I think it is getting painted at the moment so we will soon see if it stays a white tail (all white livery) or if it will be delivered to a customer. My guess is ABC or UPS but maybe we will see another operater.

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    2. Sounds like classic747 thinks it will go to Atlas in an all white livery, leased from boeing capital...

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  6. Line 1519/RC076 flight to Victorville: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE77/history/20170222/1700Z/KPAE/KVCV

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  7. Good news, Line #1495 has been reallocated to Qatar Amiri Flight! Returns to KPAE on May 18th.

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    Replies
    1. Ahh...that must be the recent order for the 747-8i that got booked. That makes some sense, as many were trying to figure out how a solitary frame made sense other than for a BBJ customer.

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    2. Do you have any additional information that you could share, plane guy?

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  8. In additional news, it looks like Atlas placed 2 747-8Fs with Cathay Pacific Cargo under ACMI agreements. Hopefully that's a sign of continuing cargo market upswing and it will result in more orders from either Atlas (who has 1 pending order) and maybe even CX.

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  9. Line#1535 is scheduled to be painted in Victorville on June 1st. Is this the Atlas frame?

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    1. It was reported to be an Atlas frame, but since that never got firmed, there is some speculation that it could be ABC's now. They may have moved up from 1542, thus allowing UPS to take 1542. Perhaps Atlas wasn't ready to firm yet, or they wanted to firm more than just 1. They were rumored to be looking at around 5 frames a bit over a year ago now I believe.

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  10. Scrub one NTU. Thats always good news.

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  11. The Seattle Times article is not news, its a rehash of yesteryears talk.

    http://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-admits-its-747-queen-of-the-skies-has-no-future-as-passenger-plane/

    They were talking like this even before the A380 was launched, which prompted them to put the 787 into the market.

    Nothing to see here.

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  12. QR to take 2 748f if not reported already.

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    Replies
    1. https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/57588-qatar-airways-cancels-a350s-orders-b747-8-freighters

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  13. Thank for the Link.

    Also Does Anybody have any idea about delivery for this order? MSN, LN No. etc etc??

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  14. About time!
    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeing-erases-transaero-747-8i-orders-from-backlog-439308/?yptr=yahoo

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  15. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAdksI2GIg4

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  16. RC021 is back in KPAE out of storage. Any infos why? Is there finally a customer? Fingers crossed...

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    Replies
    1. I read that the contracted storage period is over and that the plane needs to be removed from the site. Most logical answer I think.

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  17. Is the production list still being kept up to date, or has that stopped with the lack of posts?

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. No it has not, to the best of my knowledge. The updater (TurtleLuv) has not posted anything since Last Year.

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  18. Possible customer for the Transaero white tails... Air Force One?

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-air-force-one-20170801-story.html

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  19. https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/57588-qatar-airways-cancels-a350s-orders-b747-8-freighters
    Looks like Ln 1437 and Ln 1535 have a buyer! Two more accounted for.

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    Replies
    1. While it has been reported just recently that 1535 is likely going to Qatar, I have not seen anything about 1437. Was there something you saw otherwise to lead you to believe that 1437 will be taken up?

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    2. Considering that UPS dropped Line 1437 and took up Line 1542 from ABC instead, seemed likely this would be the second Qatar frame.

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    3. While I hope that is indeed what is going on, I believe it's more likely that UPS dropped her due to her performance issues, and for the same reason, I would believe that Qatar would take a new build instead.

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  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  21. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/u-s-makes-deal-to-buy-747s-once-set-for-russia-as-air-force-one
    It's official, USAF takes Line 1519 and Line 1523 to modify as new Air Force One jets!

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  22. All good news, except it doesn't add new frames to the list. Just a bunch of NTU's being shuffled around. There are a few options remaining, from the UPS order, if firmed will help the backlog as well. Having all these UFO's and NTU's doesn't a good outlook make.

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  23. At least with 13 more UPS frames to be built, that is 26 months left of life support for the 747 line.

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  24. I think TurtleLuv has abandoned us. The next 6 frames are all for UPS. QAF has taken up 1495 and QTR has taken 1437. Line 1435 is still up for grabs.

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    Replies
    1. So if the next 6 are UPS, the 7th is for ABC? Also the UPS thing was very much out of the blue. Can't say if their fortunate enough to get another one like that. I don't see a new cust for 8I's but there might be some top up orders from existing users, 8F has potential as there is no VLA freighter available in production unless you count the Antonov 124. Very bleak outlook but better than Last year.

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    2. Air Freight metrics are up in many parts of the world YTD so far, hopefully that continues and then the replacement cycle that Boeing has been waiting for will kick in and start generating new orders. For the -8i, things look pretty bleak. There may be some top-ups, especially from CA as they were rumored to have been in talks for more for quite a while. Who knows, though. Maybe there is a surprise or two left in the 747, whether it is the -8i or the -8F.

      With respect to 1437, I still haven't seen or heard anything that points to QR taking her up. Is there news somewhere that I missed?

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    3. Yes that QR rumor is suspect and if so, it must mean that 1347 is NTU again?? Can't have my cake ..... :(

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  25. I don't understand how you can replace Combi's with underbelly freight. Just take a look at this article:

    https://blog.klm.com/flying-horse-groom-maybe-the-best-job-at-klm/

    Obviously the cargo has to go on the MAIN deck. Main deck freighters offer THE ONLY solution to this problem. A Combi does BOTH this and Pax at the same time and I have never seen a like for like comparison between a Combi 747 versus an underbelly cargo twin.

    Is there anyone with some numbers please??

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  26. RC651 returned from paint:
    https://flic.kr/p/XMMc81

    2nd 748F for Qatar will be LN1437

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  27. Can someone take over updates here?

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  28. Turkish Airlines looking at 8 747-8i?

    https://www.dailysabah.com/business/2017/09/07/turkish-airlines-negotiates-with-boeing-for-super-jumbo-jets/amp

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  29. I know this that Turkish buying VLA has been a rumor for a long time, but this is no longer an article talking about Turkish deciding between A380 and 748, its an article talking Boeing offering a specific number of 748 at a rock bottom price. Maybe this has legs...

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  30. Looks like what we all thought was probably too good to be true, especially with the past history that TK has had with this type of news, may actually be a reality this time. Great news if it comes to pass.

    https://twitter.com/AeroimagesChris/status/907771794899181570

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  31. Per http://cargofacts.com/intrepid-aviation-delivers-second-747-8f-to-abc/, Volga-Dnepr just took their 7th 748F, through a lease with Intrepid Aviation, as part of the original MOU of 20. It was placed with AirBridge. Cargofacts also believes it is a near certainty that at a minimum, 6 more of the 13 left of on the MOU will be ordered/placed. That would be good news for the program, a year's worth of production, in addition to firm orders remaining from UPS.

    That leaves known possible opportunities for the 747 program, beyond its current backlog of 16 frames is:
    14 options from UPS
    6-13 MOU from Volga-Dnepr
    8-12 possible sale to Turkish Airlines.

    Another interesting tidbit I read in an earlier article from CargoFacts was that Freight operators simply do not want to live in a world where side load 777F is the largest freighter in the world, that nose load & 140 ton is almost a must-have in the long term, its just a matter of keeping the line alive. 774F and ERF may suffice for near future, but those frames will eventually have to be retired, and freight companies simply cannot have top end of new freighter market be the 777F

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  32. Here's the link I believe for that 2nd article that Alex mentioned ... see last paragraph

    http://cargofacts.com/new-acmi-deals-highlight-growing-demand-for-747fs/

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  33. Qatar seems to possibly be expressing interest in more 747F after the two recently ordered (one delivered according to article)

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/qatar-air-mulls-new-boeing-747-freighter-order-as-cargo-booms

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  34. I would like some confirmation, especially for the Turkish one since that sounds more like a PR stunt.

    There has been repeated denials by the TK management but I've dismissed them as there appears to have been some retraction made by one news outlet. If the 748i is being sought after, then there must be a need for them in TK's fleet which has 33 77w's being operated in 2 configurations, one a high density configuration with 400 seats. TK lookead at 410 for 748i but realistically this could go as high as 450 seats depending on the configuration.

    That is a lot of seats. Only a move like this will make sense because just down stream are a whole bunch of 777 models.

    If the demand is that good, there may be a business case for it, and if so it fits a trend of current 777 operators with large fleets looking for alternatives that they can obtain that are not the only other real alternative from Airbus. We saw this with Air China, which has 26 77w' and Korean with 22.These are not small fleets and Turkish fits the bill with their fleet. The trend is proof that the market is still alive for new pax 747's, on the capacity front. As for range, there are interesting numbers, from BCA. QF who has been talking ULH could order a 747-8i Today and do ULH legs from Darwin Australia to Europe in no short order at all. All it needs is the will to this, if THAT is what they want.



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  35. More good news for the 747 program:
    http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2017-09-25-Boeing-Qatar-Airways-Announce-Order-for-Two-747-8-Freighters-and-Four-777-300ERs

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  36. welcome back whoever updated the sheet!!!

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  37. Ahh so TurtleLuv is around. He is not the mod becos there is no mod. As I understand it, he just updates the table now and again.

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  38. Silk Way planning to order 2 more 747-8's this year if this report is accurate

    http://atwonline.com/aircraft-orders-deliveries/azerbaijan-carriers-purchase-more-boeing-aircraft

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  39. Also 3 748I listed as ordered but customer is UFO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747-8

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  40. Those 3 UFOs are all orders to pick up white tails. They are the BBJ 1495, which is destined to be another BBJ for Qatar I believe, and 1519 and 1523, the ex-UN frames, that are to be used for Air Force One.

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  41. Apparently there are 4 NEW orders for the 8F? Really? Who?

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  42. I think the post talking about that was referencing the Qatar order and the recently announced Silk Way intention to order two more by the end of this year.

    I think we'll see some more orders by the end of the year as well, especially if yoy growth continues.

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  43. That is Good news for the freighter. Any chance they would do a -9f or a -8erf?

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    1. There's almost no way they'd spend the R&D dollars to do any other variations unless orders pick up.

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    2. I Absolutely agree with that.

      Except that deals are cut in many which ways. Either the customer wants you, but it might not necessarily be true the other way around, or is it?

      Is there any value left in pretense, meaning that you only do the serious work after the fact, but until then there is bravado and feathered headgear? Meaning that paper not personnel is being committed, It night not seem to have any value on the surface, but almost all airplanes start this way, as paper. So putting out a painted paper front alluding to what I just mentioned up there might generate some interest or it might not.

      If it never becomes anything tangible, at least the paper didn't end up tossed for nothing, because interest was generated, where it goes from there of course is not something I'm paid to do.

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  44. I think that the last I saw, she was ferried to PDX for painting into QR Cargo livery.

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  45. Any possibilities from the China Order??

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  46. Good news, as of October 31st, Line 1519 and Line 1523 will become the new Air Force One's!

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  47. Delivery dates, and what is the production sequence, which frame will go first for conversion, where, how long etc etc.??

    Since this is a military program I'm not expecting many details, also it would be nice if there was a rendering as AF1.

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    1. What do you mean "what is the production sequence"? They're already built. Personally, I think it's brilliant: by buying already-built frames, nobody knew to put listening devices into them. Now their only opportunity will be during retrofit (which of course is still a huge opportunity).

      A rendering? Go print a picture of an existing AF1, grab a sharpie, and dab in a few more windows.

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    2. Yes I know they are built already, also don't assume that the question was directed at you specifically other people on here may have what I'm asking for and that is what I wanted. Sorry for the mix up.

      As for the render I was referring to the Official Boeing Render of the specific Aircraft in question, again sorry if this was not clear.

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  48. azerbaijan azul possible freighter order at das

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    1. U'm not sure but it seems they let go the 777 sales team loose on this one :). Some posts say its now 2 777f instead. This type offers SW no fleet commonality, so it might be just a last ditch effort to add 2 more 777s to what is becoming a shorter and shorter line, prior to 777x production. If it does go that way I will be disappointed but not surprised as weirder things have happened.

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    2. Ln 1437 is back at KPAE awaiting delivery to QR Cargo. Sorry if this has already been posted,. This is the the original Seahawks 747-8f and also longtime NTU Atlas Air air frame.

      https://twitter.com/AeroimagesChris/status/929846808800407552

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  49. Here are a couple images of what the new Air Force One will look like:
    http://cdn.defenseone.com/media/img/upload/2015/02/01/AF1/defense-large.jpg
    https://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getasset.aspx?itemid=65661

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  50. Thanks for the link. Really appreciate it.

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  51. UPS No.3 Ln 1544 has been delivered.

    https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/931292114754813952

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  52. Hi Everbody,

    Not sure if anybody reads this blog anymore. The updater has gone to Mars, I don't think trying to call him back is going to do any good.

    I'm not an industry rep of any kind, but I am an enthusiast. I've been following this blog for a few years now and read that the situation seems to be getting more and more dire. At least that is my perception.

    There is a lot of talk of New Markets emerging and one of these new markets is Actually an an old one, the kangaroo route from London to Australia. The solutions proposed by both the big manufacturers both have 2 engines, however reading around there seems to be a capacity requirement that both these types cannot fill. I cannot vouch for the veracity of their arguments but I understand why the Qantas CEO Alan Joyce would like to bypass the technical stops used currently. as this video below shows:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3VORKMy-TI

    The Technical stop is an inconvenience. as the plane is on the ground for 90 minutes to refuel. Getting rid of this would open up new markets, but the issue here isn't just non-stop capability, it is also comfort for both crew and passengers. Now it would take a leap of faith and technology for the A380 to this non=stop, but what about the 747-8? It is clear that the 747-8I cannot do this either, so logically what would be the solution? This video below compares both these types (A380/747-8I) Directly, note that they don't change the airline or class which is economy class.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QfK9VhAYJ8

    Its clear that both types offer a similar experience comfort wise. There is however a lot more that Boeing can do to make the 747-8I more comfortable, and looking at the configuration that they are using it seems that some adjustments to the cabin just might make up the shortfall.

    However There is one distinction between the 2 aircraft and that is that the 747-8I is a stretched design. My question is, given that Boeing's own numbers state that the 747-8I is capable of London to Darwin, Australia is it possible to shrink the 747-8I to the length of the 747-400, keep the wings and engines the same, and up with a model that can close the 1700 NM gap between Darwin and Sydney, with some reserves and allowing for seasonal headwinds, route diversions etc??

    This would offer QF the capacity required, and with up rated thrust engines, lower fuel burn, commonality with current 747's that QF operate, engine commonality
    with the 787 that QF also operate and a comfort level. with some tweaking, is similar to, but not exactly like the A380 pictured in the first video. I'm not sure its possible or if Boeing is keen to offer this but This is just my opinion and you may take it for what its worth.

    Thank you for reading this.

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  53. Hey TurtleLuv, you still there Bro?

    QR Cargo 747f is now full paint, also no new firing order.

    Cheers. (burp)

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