The Chart:

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Korean Airlines takes their 7th

Just in before the new year, Korean Air Cargo took their 7th 747-8F this afternoon. They've retired a few youger 744Fs recently to make room for the new bird, so it's a bittersweet delivery. Line 1528 RC661 HL7639 is on her way to Korea as we speak.

168 comments:

  1. LN1437 RC573 Atlas NTU will be ferried back to Paine Field today. That's pretty unexpected.
    http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE573/history/20170206/2000Z/KMZJ/KPAE

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  2. Tra lala-lala..... lala-lala.....lala-lala..... Line Closure....lala-la..... ;)

    BTW is there a schedule for ABC's deliveries? The MOU (20 frames) is firmed and they've taken 7 frames so far but that leaves 13? frames stretched out? 13+UPS= 27 frames but the articles below says only 26 incl 4 UN frames. Is this correct??

    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... up-433912/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, because the MoU units are only placed as they are needed, they don't show up currently and people don't count them. That's probably fair as the agreement is an MoU and ABC can probably defer schedule if they need. As it stands, they are scheduled to take 2 or 3 each year over the next 5 years or so I believe.

      In terms of the FG article, I think it's much ado about nothing. It's more about Triumph being under contract through 2019 and probably trying to get out of it or re-negotiate because the rate is so slow at the moment that they are losing money on each part delivered. As the article also states, Boeing had planned on bringing that work in-house, but then changed those plans for some reason. So they may be trying to get Triumph to extend or stay on as a supplier, and if that fails, they could probably bring it in-house still.

      Delete
  3. Can't comment much on the Triumph thing, but they have inherited that contract from somebody and are obligated to meet those. Sadly if the rates plummet again, this type of thing might happen more often with other suppliers.

    However the game is not over and There is a New Admin in the WH. There is some talk of an economic revival, amidst all the negatives but we've not gone down the road sufficiently enough to see if this political change has an impact on the program up to and including program shutdown. If there is a boom and there is de-regulation, we've been down that road before (jusd ask Rob Crandall) but if its a bust, that is dire. How this translates to more frames, is anybody's guess of course.

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  4. LN1437 will be delivered to UPS!
    https://twitter.com/woody2190/status/830209100701065217

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  5. Come on Turtleluv, update that spreadsheet, 1437 is finally getting a good home! Does anyone know anything about 1535, the now final white tailed 8F?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it is getting painted at the moment so we will soon see if it stays a white tail (all white livery) or if it will be delivered to a customer. My guess is ABC or UPS but maybe we will see another operater.

      Delete
    2. Sounds like classic747 thinks it will go to Atlas in an all white livery, leased from boeing capital...

      Delete
  6. Line 1519/RC076 flight to Victorville: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE77/history/20170222/1700Z/KPAE/KVCV

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  7. Good news, Line #1495 has been reallocated to Qatar Amiri Flight! Returns to KPAE on May 18th.

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    Replies
    1. Ahh...that must be the recent order for the 747-8i that got booked. That makes some sense, as many were trying to figure out how a solitary frame made sense other than for a BBJ customer.

      Delete
    2. Do you have any additional information that you could share, plane guy?

      Delete
  8. In additional news, it looks like Atlas placed 2 747-8Fs with Cathay Pacific Cargo under ACMI agreements. Hopefully that's a sign of continuing cargo market upswing and it will result in more orders from either Atlas (who has 1 pending order) and maybe even CX.

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  9. Line#1535 is scheduled to be painted in Victorville on June 1st. Is this the Atlas frame?

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    Replies
    1. It was reported to be an Atlas frame, but since that never got firmed, there is some speculation that it could be ABC's now. They may have moved up from 1542, thus allowing UPS to take 1542. Perhaps Atlas wasn't ready to firm yet, or they wanted to firm more than just 1. They were rumored to be looking at around 5 frames a bit over a year ago now I believe.

      Delete
  10. Scrub one NTU. Thats always good news.

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  11. The Seattle Times article is not news, its a rehash of yesteryears talk.

    http://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-admits-its-747-queen-of-the-skies-has-no-future-as-passenger-plane/

    They were talking like this even before the A380 was launched, which prompted them to put the 787 into the market.

    Nothing to see here.

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  12. QR to take 2 748f if not reported already.

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    Replies
    1. https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/57588-qatar-airways-cancels-a350s-orders-b747-8-freighters

      Delete
  13. Thank for the Link.

    Also Does Anybody have any idea about delivery for this order? MSN, LN No. etc etc??

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  14. About time!
    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeing-erases-transaero-747-8i-orders-from-backlog-439308/?yptr=yahoo

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  15. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAdksI2GIg4

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  16. RC021 is back in KPAE out of storage. Any infos why? Is there finally a customer? Fingers crossed...

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    Replies
    1. I read that the contracted storage period is over and that the plane needs to be removed from the site. Most logical answer I think.

      Delete
  17. Is the production list still being kept up to date, or has that stopped with the lack of posts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. No it has not, to the best of my knowledge. The updater (TurtleLuv) has not posted anything since Last Year.

      Delete
  18. Possible customer for the Transaero white tails... Air Force One?

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-air-force-one-20170801-story.html

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  19. https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/57588-qatar-airways-cancels-a350s-orders-b747-8-freighters
    Looks like Ln 1437 and Ln 1535 have a buyer! Two more accounted for.

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    Replies
    1. While it has been reported just recently that 1535 is likely going to Qatar, I have not seen anything about 1437. Was there something you saw otherwise to lead you to believe that 1437 will be taken up?

      Delete
    2. Considering that UPS dropped Line 1437 and took up Line 1542 from ABC instead, seemed likely this would be the second Qatar frame.

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    3. While I hope that is indeed what is going on, I believe it's more likely that UPS dropped her due to her performance issues, and for the same reason, I would believe that Qatar would take a new build instead.

      Delete
  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  21. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/u-s-makes-deal-to-buy-747s-once-set-for-russia-as-air-force-one
    It's official, USAF takes Line 1519 and Line 1523 to modify as new Air Force One jets!

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  22. All good news, except it doesn't add new frames to the list. Just a bunch of NTU's being shuffled around. There are a few options remaining, from the UPS order, if firmed will help the backlog as well. Having all these UFO's and NTU's doesn't a good outlook make.

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  23. At least with 13 more UPS frames to be built, that is 26 months left of life support for the 747 line.

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  24. I think TurtleLuv has abandoned us. The next 6 frames are all for UPS. QAF has taken up 1495 and QTR has taken 1437. Line 1435 is still up for grabs.

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    Replies
    1. So if the next 6 are UPS, the 7th is for ABC? Also the UPS thing was very much out of the blue. Can't say if their fortunate enough to get another one like that. I don't see a new cust for 8I's but there might be some top up orders from existing users, 8F has potential as there is no VLA freighter available in production unless you count the Antonov 124. Very bleak outlook but better than Last year.

      Delete
    2. Air Freight metrics are up in many parts of the world YTD so far, hopefully that continues and then the replacement cycle that Boeing has been waiting for will kick in and start generating new orders. For the -8i, things look pretty bleak. There may be some top-ups, especially from CA as they were rumored to have been in talks for more for quite a while. Who knows, though. Maybe there is a surprise or two left in the 747, whether it is the -8i or the -8F.

      With respect to 1437, I still haven't seen or heard anything that points to QR taking her up. Is there news somewhere that I missed?

      Delete
    3. Yes that QR rumor is suspect and if so, it must mean that 1347 is NTU again?? Can't have my cake ..... :(

      Delete
  25. I don't understand how you can replace Combi's with underbelly freight. Just take a look at this article:

    https://blog.klm.com/flying-horse-groom-maybe-the-best-job-at-klm/

    Obviously the cargo has to go on the MAIN deck. Main deck freighters offer THE ONLY solution to this problem. A Combi does BOTH this and Pax at the same time and I have never seen a like for like comparison between a Combi 747 versus an underbelly cargo twin.

    Is there anyone with some numbers please??

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  26. RC651 returned from paint:
    https://flic.kr/p/XMMc81

    2nd 748F for Qatar will be LN1437

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  27. Can someone take over updates here?

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  28. Turkish Airlines looking at 8 747-8i?

    https://www.dailysabah.com/business/2017/09/07/turkish-airlines-negotiates-with-boeing-for-super-jumbo-jets/amp

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  29. I know this that Turkish buying VLA has been a rumor for a long time, but this is no longer an article talking about Turkish deciding between A380 and 748, its an article talking Boeing offering a specific number of 748 at a rock bottom price. Maybe this has legs...

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  30. Looks like what we all thought was probably too good to be true, especially with the past history that TK has had with this type of news, may actually be a reality this time. Great news if it comes to pass.

    https://twitter.com/AeroimagesChris/status/907771794899181570

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  31. Per http://cargofacts.com/intrepid-aviation-delivers-second-747-8f-to-abc/, Volga-Dnepr just took their 7th 748F, through a lease with Intrepid Aviation, as part of the original MOU of 20. It was placed with AirBridge. Cargofacts also believes it is a near certainty that at a minimum, 6 more of the 13 left of on the MOU will be ordered/placed. That would be good news for the program, a year's worth of production, in addition to firm orders remaining from UPS.

    That leaves known possible opportunities for the 747 program, beyond its current backlog of 16 frames is:
    14 options from UPS
    6-13 MOU from Volga-Dnepr
    8-12 possible sale to Turkish Airlines.

    Another interesting tidbit I read in an earlier article from CargoFacts was that Freight operators simply do not want to live in a world where side load 777F is the largest freighter in the world, that nose load & 140 ton is almost a must-have in the long term, its just a matter of keeping the line alive. 774F and ERF may suffice for near future, but those frames will eventually have to be retired, and freight companies simply cannot have top end of new freighter market be the 777F

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  32. Here's the link I believe for that 2nd article that Alex mentioned ... see last paragraph

    http://cargofacts.com/new-acmi-deals-highlight-growing-demand-for-747fs/

    ReplyDelete
  33. Qatar seems to possibly be expressing interest in more 747F after the two recently ordered (one delivered according to article)

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/qatar-air-mulls-new-boeing-747-freighter-order-as-cargo-booms

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  34. I would like some confirmation, especially for the Turkish one since that sounds more like a PR stunt.

    There has been repeated denials by the TK management but I've dismissed them as there appears to have been some retraction made by one news outlet. If the 748i is being sought after, then there must be a need for them in TK's fleet which has 33 77w's being operated in 2 configurations, one a high density configuration with 400 seats. TK lookead at 410 for 748i but realistically this could go as high as 450 seats depending on the configuration.

    That is a lot of seats. Only a move like this will make sense because just down stream are a whole bunch of 777 models.

    If the demand is that good, there may be a business case for it, and if so it fits a trend of current 777 operators with large fleets looking for alternatives that they can obtain that are not the only other real alternative from Airbus. We saw this with Air China, which has 26 77w' and Korean with 22.These are not small fleets and Turkish fits the bill with their fleet. The trend is proof that the market is still alive for new pax 747's, on the capacity front. As for range, there are interesting numbers, from BCA. QF who has been talking ULH could order a 747-8i Today and do ULH legs from Darwin Australia to Europe in no short order at all. All it needs is the will to this, if THAT is what they want.



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  35. More good news for the 747 program:
    http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2017-09-25-Boeing-Qatar-Airways-Announce-Order-for-Two-747-8-Freighters-and-Four-777-300ERs

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  36. welcome back whoever updated the sheet!!!

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  37. Ahh so TurtleLuv is around. He is not the mod becos there is no mod. As I understand it, he just updates the table now and again.

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  38. Silk Way planning to order 2 more 747-8's this year if this report is accurate

    http://atwonline.com/aircraft-orders-deliveries/azerbaijan-carriers-purchase-more-boeing-aircraft

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  39. Also 3 748I listed as ordered but customer is UFO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747-8

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  40. Those 3 UFOs are all orders to pick up white tails. They are the BBJ 1495, which is destined to be another BBJ for Qatar I believe, and 1519 and 1523, the ex-UN frames, that are to be used for Air Force One.

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  41. Apparently there are 4 NEW orders for the 8F? Really? Who?

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  42. I think the post talking about that was referencing the Qatar order and the recently announced Silk Way intention to order two more by the end of this year.

    I think we'll see some more orders by the end of the year as well, especially if yoy growth continues.

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  43. That is Good news for the freighter. Any chance they would do a -9f or a -8erf?

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    Replies
    1. There's almost no way they'd spend the R&D dollars to do any other variations unless orders pick up.

      Delete
    2. I Absolutely agree with that.

      Except that deals are cut in many which ways. Either the customer wants you, but it might not necessarily be true the other way around, or is it?

      Is there any value left in pretense, meaning that you only do the serious work after the fact, but until then there is bravado and feathered headgear? Meaning that paper not personnel is being committed, It night not seem to have any value on the surface, but almost all airplanes start this way, as paper. So putting out a painted paper front alluding to what I just mentioned up there might generate some interest or it might not.

      If it never becomes anything tangible, at least the paper didn't end up tossed for nothing, because interest was generated, where it goes from there of course is not something I'm paid to do.

      Delete
  44. I think that the last I saw, she was ferried to PDX for painting into QR Cargo livery.

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  45. Any possibilities from the China Order??

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  46. Good news, as of October 31st, Line 1519 and Line 1523 will become the new Air Force One's!

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  47. Delivery dates, and what is the production sequence, which frame will go first for conversion, where, how long etc etc.??

    Since this is a military program I'm not expecting many details, also it would be nice if there was a rendering as AF1.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What do you mean "what is the production sequence"? They're already built. Personally, I think it's brilliant: by buying already-built frames, nobody knew to put listening devices into them. Now their only opportunity will be during retrofit (which of course is still a huge opportunity).

      A rendering? Go print a picture of an existing AF1, grab a sharpie, and dab in a few more windows.

      Delete
    2. Yes I know they are built already, also don't assume that the question was directed at you specifically other people on here may have what I'm asking for and that is what I wanted. Sorry for the mix up.

      As for the render I was referring to the Official Boeing Render of the specific Aircraft in question, again sorry if this was not clear.

      Delete
  48. azerbaijan azul possible freighter order at das

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    Replies
    1. U'm not sure but it seems they let go the 777 sales team loose on this one :). Some posts say its now 2 777f instead. This type offers SW no fleet commonality, so it might be just a last ditch effort to add 2 more 777s to what is becoming a shorter and shorter line, prior to 777x production. If it does go that way I will be disappointed but not surprised as weirder things have happened.

      Delete
    2. Ln 1437 is back at KPAE awaiting delivery to QR Cargo. Sorry if this has already been posted,. This is the the original Seahawks 747-8f and also longtime NTU Atlas Air air frame.

      https://twitter.com/AeroimagesChris/status/929846808800407552

      Delete
  49. Here are a couple images of what the new Air Force One will look like:
    http://cdn.defenseone.com/media/img/upload/2015/02/01/AF1/defense-large.jpg
    https://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getasset.aspx?itemid=65661

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  50. Thanks for the link. Really appreciate it.

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  51. UPS No.3 Ln 1544 has been delivered.

    https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/931292114754813952

    ReplyDelete
  52. Hi Everbody,

    Not sure if anybody reads this blog anymore. The updater has gone to Mars, I don't think trying to call him back is going to do any good.

    I'm not an industry rep of any kind, but I am an enthusiast. I've been following this blog for a few years now and read that the situation seems to be getting more and more dire. At least that is my perception.

    There is a lot of talk of New Markets emerging and one of these new markets is Actually an an old one, the kangaroo route from London to Australia. The solutions proposed by both the big manufacturers both have 2 engines, however reading around there seems to be a capacity requirement that both these types cannot fill. I cannot vouch for the veracity of their arguments but I understand why the Qantas CEO Alan Joyce would like to bypass the technical stops used currently. as this video below shows:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3VORKMy-TI

    The Technical stop is an inconvenience. as the plane is on the ground for 90 minutes to refuel. Getting rid of this would open up new markets, but the issue here isn't just non-stop capability, it is also comfort for both crew and passengers. Now it would take a leap of faith and technology for the A380 to this non=stop, but what about the 747-8? It is clear that the 747-8I cannot do this either, so logically what would be the solution? This video below compares both these types (A380/747-8I) Directly, note that they don't change the airline or class which is economy class.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QfK9VhAYJ8

    Its clear that both types offer a similar experience comfort wise. There is however a lot more that Boeing can do to make the 747-8I more comfortable, and looking at the configuration that they are using it seems that some adjustments to the cabin just might make up the shortfall.

    However There is one distinction between the 2 aircraft and that is that the 747-8I is a stretched design. My question is, given that Boeing's own numbers state that the 747-8I is capable of London to Darwin, Australia is it possible to shrink the 747-8I to the length of the 747-400, keep the wings and engines the same, and up with a model that can close the 1700 NM gap between Darwin and Sydney, with some reserves and allowing for seasonal headwinds, route diversions etc??

    This would offer QF the capacity required, and with up rated thrust engines, lower fuel burn, commonality with current 747's that QF operate, engine commonality
    with the 787 that QF also operate and a comfort level. with some tweaking, is similar to, but not exactly like the A380 pictured in the first video. I'm not sure its possible or if Boeing is keen to offer this but This is just my opinion and you may take it for what its worth.

    Thank you for reading this.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Hey TurtleLuv, you still there Bro?

    QR Cargo 747f is now full paint, also no new firing order.

    Cheers. (burp)

    ReplyDelete
  54. I checked the firing order, 1545 to 1550 are all UPS frames.
    Here is Line #1544:
    http://paineairport.com/2017_11_16mb.htm

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  55. Hey thanks for the info, next 6 frames UPS, that is 1 years worth of production, reg and other details to follow I guess. So frame 7 might be QR?? any speculators??

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    Replies
    1. QR already has their two frames, I believe. The one they have received already was 1535, and the second is the long neglected 1437 that finally has a non-Seahawks livery and a new home. :-)

      Delete
    2. Yes good to see that UFO move on. Sadly RC 021 is not going anywhere, and btw where the hell is it?? Last seen PAE with 2 engines remopved. Is it back in MZJ already or is it somewhere else. ???

      Delete
    3. No, it's back to storage on the infamous Runway 11/29 with 5 KC-46 frames!

      Delete
    4. How Sad, whats next for that plane? Flying Testbed?

      Delete
  56. News down the grapevine says that BA are still looking at 747 replacements. They have a big fleet and if they are expanding they might give the 748I a second look. Fingers crossed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Is it wrong for me to hope that Emirates will pick up the 748I to replace their A380s after Airbus closes the A380 line? (chuckle)

      Delete
  57. My God, you are actually using 'Emirates' and '748i' in the SAME SENTENCE!!?? Please take that down before somebody sees it. (LOL)

    Seriously though anything is possible. Why I even read that BA had actually selected the 748I before that is, Airbus beat them on price. I could see that happening years ago, BA had always been very vocal about the slot restricted main hub of theirs, and how even the 747 was 'too small' back then. So when they now spout out the jingo about 787's and A350's I'm very unlikely to believe them, especially after they only bought 12 A380's, whilst 'sitting on top that mountain' ahem.

    Their core business is shoveling SLF's into tin cans for a buck and as long as it does the job, who cares if its efficient or not. If its true that they sold out Boeing on price and bought the loser of the competition specwise, then the industry truly is a bottomless pit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Emirates has shown Boeing a lot of love (777, 777X, 787); they could go all-in with the 748I. It COULD happen...

      Delete
    2. Your not serious are you?

      It almost sounds like a bad joke. Still stranger things have happened. I will believe it when I see it.

      Delete
  58. Latest from KPAE is as follows:

    RC021 stored runway 11/29
    RC573 Waiting for del QR Cargo.

    But whose whithe painted 8I is that in the center of the Picture?

    http://paineairport.com/images/fl20171201.jpg

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  59. That is Line #1495, a BBJ for Qatar Amiri Flight awaiting delivery this month.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Ah I see. Thanks a bunch.

    This UFO hasn't been outfitted yet I reckon so del must be to Conversion ctr for VIP modification? Where exactly does anybody know??

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  61. Apparently someone has ordered a 748f. Anybody with more info??

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  62. Line #1495 12/10/17 delivery flight here:
    https://www.flickr.com/photos/royalscottking/38971900491/

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  63. Similarly, Ln 1437 the long term UFO and resident NTU has been delivered as A7-BGA at last.

    Any rumors of them taking the Pax Model??

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  64. Guess Not. Is somebody going to update the table??

    Also a firing order of sorts for 2018

    http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=591323&start=2050

    Scroll down to bottom.

    (Incessant whining customers with nit pick mode on and long winded conversation pieces. Buy 1 get 1 free, all in with extended warranty for 24.99.) :p

    ReplyDelete
  65. LN 1545 UPS #4 has been rolled out of FAL.

    Anyone still here. please leave a :).

    Cheers.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Unfortunately original manager of this site has apparently abandoned it. If you continue to have data subsequent to his last entry, keep putting it up and at least we will have a little more info.

    ReplyDelete
  67. The issue here is not the data, its the table, only he can update that?? It was updated a few months back AFAIK. if anyone can update the table, or has access and authority to that effect please go ahead, some of the entries need updating....OTHERWISE, this page is DEAD. RIP....

    ReplyDelete
  68. The 100th comment.

    BCA rounds out the year with a net total of -2 for the 747.

    Merry Christmas and a happy New Year.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Bechai / SeekingAlpha suggested the recent 747 sale could be AirBridge Cargo

    "An unidentified customer ordered 1 Boeing 747-8F, this possibly is an order coming from AirBridge Cargo which committed to 20 freighters but firms the commitment up one-by-one."

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4131740-boeing-november-order-report-lessors-firm

    ReplyDelete
  70. No firm confirmation from your source, but an order has been placed, likely as the source suggests ABC. If true this would be ABC #8, leaving 12 remaining in the original MOU.

    As the firing order for 2018 is entirely UPS assembly would be soonest in 2019 but as no details of delivery are known, where it slots into the sequence for the year is not known.

    Also Thanks for the information.

    ReplyDelete
  71. KPAE fligbtline DDec 30

    http://paineairport.com/images/fl20171226.jpg

    RC 021 is parked next to UPS #4. The hangar behind the Tower Apron looks like it has been demolished.

    ReplyDelete
  72. The sad and sorry state of affairs for the 747 program is manifested by this:

    http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382493 (original source)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    At this moment : one 747-8 airframe(s) at Final Assembly Line (FAL), Everett building 40-22
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Slant position #1 : used for travelled work at B767’s.
    Slant position #2 : empty
    Final body join position : L/N 1546 - 747-8F, RC534, UPS, serial number 64254, N609UP, scheduled delivery March 15 2018
    Wing/body join position : empty
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Firing order : 4 Airframes , scheduled for Final Assembly (Subject to change).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    L/N 1547 - 747-8F, RC535, UPS, serial number 64256, N610UP, scheduled delivery July 02 2018
    L/N 1548 - 747-8F, RC536, UPS, serial number 64257, N611UP, scheduled delivery August 01 2018
    L/N 1549 - 747-8F, RC537, UPS
    L/N 1550 - 747-8F, RC538, UPS

    Details for 5 of 6 frames to be assembled this year, with 1 production slot hijacked by the 767 and an empty wing body join area. UPS #5 in bay 3 see above for details.

    Also note that B1 for UPS #4 should be scheduled soon as delivery is listed as 18th January, Not sure if they are going to paint this one in Portland. As for RC 021 A/C is stored on KPAE Flight line, Assuming of course, prep for transfer to a Boneyard for Long term storage??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Is it a "production slot" hijacked, or just an assembly bay?

      Delete
    2. Well lets see, it could be an assembly bay, but on the other hand, it might be a production slot, hmmm.... :)

      Its an assembly bay of course, I've myriads of mistakes, so this one is different. Sorry.

      Delete
  73. UPS #4 B1 Flight.

    https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE533/history/20180104/1830Z/KPAE/KMWH

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  74. Ln 1545 to Portland for painting.

    https://twitter.com/PSBoeingTstFlts/status/949519743374934016

    ReplyDelete
  75. LN 1545 Has returned to PAE from PDX. Delivery is slated 18th Jan 2018.

    https://twitter.com/PSBoeingTstFlts

    ReplyDelete
  76. The latest facepalm on Anet.

    http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1383997&start=50

    I'm not sure that anybody is reading this but evidently this iteration is a compromise, between what exactly??

    Twins or Humps. Want both? I'm not going there. :)

    ReplyDelete
  77. LN 1545 should already have been delivered. Any news as to its whereabouts??

    ReplyDelete
  78. UPS #4 @PAE 1/23/2018

    http://paineairport.com/kpae15551qv.htm

    ReplyDelete
  79. A Nerd told me that if you plug in some numbers into a calculator, you can magically make a 747 fly LHR to SYD non-stop with a 100 nm reserve.

    The key he says is doing the following, build a wing with a capacity of 63,700 US Gal fuel tank capacity(744ER), add a shortened 231ft 10 in fuselage on top, and throw away the extended upper deck using the shortened upper deck used for the freighter model. Since I've read on record that only 350 seats are needed, this will work.

    No need to do extensive R&D, just slap together an 820,000 lb model with 8I wings and engines. Seating would be the same as 200B 366 3 Class and with thinner seats at 10Y economy class config. Lighter alloys save more weight, but you can develop a carbon fiber V-tail, with 787 style shaped tip and extended h-tail also fitted with raked tips.

    Don't know if he was smoking anything, but judge for yourself.

    ReplyDelete
  80. LN 1545 delivery flight:
    https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UPS9107

    ReplyDelete
  81. En route FL 390 Thxs for the heads up.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Next Airplane in sequence is this one:

    L/N 1546 - 747-8F, RC534, UPS, serial number 64254, N609UP, scheduled delivery March 15 2018 (pinched from UP THERE)..

    I Expect rollout mid to late February 2018, so approximately 2-3 weeks time. Barring of course a 100 plane order, this looks like a reasonable guesstimate.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Replies
    1. Did you hear something about RC021?

      Delete
    2. No just wanted 2 know where she is, last seen PAE...

      Delete
    3. Back in test mode apparently:
      http://paineairport.com/2018_02_08jm.htm

      Delete
    4. Testing solar powered lavs??

      That cowl on No.3 looks elongated. Noise reduction perhaps?

      Delete
  84. Good news as UPS has converted their 14 options into firm orders!

    http://www.boeing.com/commercial/customers/ups/747-8-767-order.page

    They just received their 4th frame, for them to make a decision on the options that quickly is a good sign. They must be happy with the performance and also see a lot of growth in their future. There was someone on anet who said they thought that UPS may eventually push their number of orders up to 42 with another 14 frames. That would be an incredible 747-8 fleet!

    Regardless of if that happens or not, this order helps carry the 747 out past 2020 where a lot of other freighters are going to need to be replaced. Hopefully that means there are a lot of additional orders in the future. Who knows, maybe an Intercontinental order will sneak in there somewhere as well!

    ReplyDelete
  85. I'm not shure about the 4 years extra production, rumors have been circulating about the impending appearance of MOM and how that is going to use up the space in the 'FORMER 747 ASSEMBLY' so a rate hike might be in order to quickly clear up the new backlog.

    Of course I can't dismiss it out of hand, but a rate hike would be a good thing, for one thing they'll start to make money again, and if some more of these ABC and SW commitments firm up b4 the 3Q 2018, this looks like a possibility.

    ReplyDelete
  86. If your looking for potential,all you need is calculator.

    Plug in this equation:

    R = ( V / TSFC ) x ( L / D ) x ln ( Wi / Wf )

    where

    R=Range
    V=Velocity
    TFSC=TFSC
    L/D=Lift Drag Ratio
    Wi= Initial weight
    Wf= Final weight

    Got a better equation?

    The hard part is knowing what you want. Treat the plane like a legoset, thats the way it was built in the FAL. Also pulled pork and beer helps, especially in the winter.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Check this out:

    https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/64236-azerbaijans-silk-way-to-add-up-to-twenty-b747-8-freighters

    SW wants 20 more 748F's??

    ReplyDelete
  88. UPS #5 should be rolling out soon.

    Also other developments.

    ABC has taken the last production slot for the year.

    Details: L/N 1551, 747-8F, RC609, ABC, s/n 63787, ————, 02/01/2019

    Source: http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382493

    LN 1468 VQ-BSK is to change Hands. However there is no link to the supposed sale. Expect a new livery to be applied.

    ReplyDelete
  89. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE21/history/20180216/1600Z/KPAE/KSKF
    Looks like more flight testing for 1435.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Went up to 40k ft according to the link. I wonder what it might be. Also I note the callsign 21 which is 3 x 7. Could be 777 related.

    ReplyDelete
  91. whooops.... BOE 21 - RC021.... sorry my baddd

    ReplyDelete
  92. LN 1546 is out.

    http://paineairport.com/kpae15690py.htm

    ReplyDelete
  93. Interesting article on why UPS likes their 748's so much, along with the potential for future sales thanks to e-commerce + volume needs

    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-ups-goes-big-with-freighters-as-e-commerce-445874/

    ReplyDelete
  94. Tried to read the article, but its for registered users only.

    Also LN 1546 had its First Flight on 1st March.

    http://www.airliners.net/photo/Untitled-United-Parcel-Service-UPS/Boeing-747-8F/4878435

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. First, my thanks to Charlie and all the rest of you who have kept this thread alive with current info about the order status of the 747-8F. Sorry that TurtleLuv bailed on us with the spreadsheets.

      Re: the UPS article you tried to access on FlightGlobal... That info is all now included in a very good piece that appears, with color photos, in the current (April) issue of AIR International, a British publication that is carried in most Barnes & Noble stores. It's a good piece, and UPS is most enthusiastic about the 747-8F and after beginning to use the first batch, couldn't wait to convert their options on the second batch of 14. Meantime, I hear they are wet-leasing other a/c because cargo demand has increased so much during the past year. (Key Publications is the parent company of AIR International if anyone is interested in taking out a subscription on line...)

      My hopes are that 1) cargo demand holds steady so that interest in the -8F will increase; 2) Trump's tariffs don't start a chain reaction of retaliatory tariffs that throttle trade and cut demand; 3) as in-service -400Fs and -BCFs will, as they become increasingly expensive to operate and are retired, provide a renewal market for the -8F. We will see. Other than the An-124, it is the only large-sized front-loader and, with more up-to-date engines and wings, is more efficient to operate. (But An-124 may have a wider fuselage for outsized cargo--that I have not checked...)

      Delete
  95. LN 1546 has left PAE for PDX for Painting.

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/BOE534?src=hash

    Delivery is approximately in 2 weeks on Mar 15.

    ReplyDelete
  96. RC 021 is not at Paine Field.

    http://paineairport.com/images/fl20180302.jpg

    Aircraft is now at BFI.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Thank you for all the (non) feedback... We have 4 entries left for this years Firing order. Will Appreciate any new news on this here subject, as going into 2019, we will not have such info readily available. Also there are 2 non firm commitments for 2 frames, both for SW and were supposedly ordered in 2017. SW has also gone on record saying their requirement in the future is 10 times that amount. We will see what ink gets put on what contract by then if there is such a notion in the first place. Next Airplane should be in a slant position Assembly bay if anyone has any confirmation, please post. TQ.

    ReplyDelete
  98. RC 021 has gone to San Antonio

    https://twitter.com/PSBoeingTstFlts/status/973059241194827776

    ReplyDelete
  99. LN 1546 has left PDX After Painting.

    https://boeing-test-flights.blogspot.my/2018/03/n609up-b747-8f-united-parcel-service_13.html

    ReplyDelete
  100. N828BA or RC 021 has not returned from SKF. Last flight was on 11 March.

    https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE21

    Also overdue is the delivery of UPS #6. It was supposed to be 18 Mar according to the timeline in the firing order.

    Maybe these frames have flown on elsewhere, but no one has reported it.

    ReplyDelete
  101. This article suggests a 747-8 (I presume RC 021 by your posts) in San Antonio was being used for engine upgrade tests on GenX 2B

    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/ge-completes-tests-on-genx-2b-upgrades-for-747-8-446969/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ah, it's behind a paywall. Can you summarize? I wonder if the upgrades could help spawn a new wave of orders, maybe even a few -8is?

      Delete
  102. Here is the text of the Article.

    GE completes tests on GEnx-2B upgrades for 747-8

    GE Aviation plans to start delivering a durability upgrade in mid-2018 for the engines powering the Boeing 747-8, the engine maker confirms to FlightGlobal.

    The upgrade involvements improvements to four areas in the core of the engine, including the fuel nozzles and the second generation of the twin-annular, pre-swirl (TAPS II) combustor, the company says.

    The durability upgrades also target the first stage of the high-pressure turbine, with improvements to the blades and the nozzles of the dual-rotor engine.

    “The improvements will increase time on wing for the engine,” GE says.

    An engine used for certification testing was visible during a 21 March tour of Boeing’s rapid modification centre in San Antonio.

    The centre’s dedicated hangar contained a Boeing-owned 747-8, which was used as a testbed for the upgraded GEnx-2B engine.

    GE had completed flight testing on the engine a week ago, according to Boeing. It had already been removed from the wing and set aside inside the hangar.

    The engine was used to test the upgraded components that required flight testing to validate their airworthiness, GE says.

    “The majority of these improvements are being introduced into production now as we await certification on the remaining parts that require the flight test,” GE adds.

    The durability upgrade marks the first known update of the GEnx-2B engine since 2013, when GE rolled out a performance improvement package (PIP). Based largely on upgrades introduced for the PIP II version of the 787's GEnx-1B engine, the PIP for the 747-8 propulsion system intended to reduce fuel burn by 1.6%.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As for the possibility of New Orders, certainly the market has spoken, yet the only model that might sell (the-8f) offers a unique capability no matter how niche.The 8I unfortunately offers nothing, so they say, but if it could beat A380 on range, that would be something but it doesn't.

    This is the predicament that its in, it offers nothing that no other aircraft can do, not anything special, so buyers thumb their nose and look elsewhere. Even if there was a possibility of TK buying it, the gains would be marginal compared to what the next smallest size down could offer. Even if there were airlines operating close to 50 WB twins, the 8i would never make any sense. That doesn't mean that people haven't bought them.

    If I were tasked with doing something about this, I would look at it from an angle of simplistic changes to gain something that Airlines might want more than what I give up. Now there is a wealth of changes they've made to the original design. Perhaps looking at from an angle like this, there might still be design iterations to follow.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Does anybody know which airframe is allocated for this head of state 748? Article hints it might be for Saudi Arabia, including of an upcoming visit by the crown prince at the end of this month

    Mystery buyer orders Greenpoint Aerolofts for VIP Boeing 747-8

    https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2018/03/25/greenpoint-tech-aerolofts-boeing-747-8i-bin-salman.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Could it be A7-HHE?

      The owner passed away and the aircraft was up for sale?

      In other news UPS #6 still has not been delivered.

      https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/Boeing/747/N609UP-United-Parcel-Service-(UPS)/lEAYCEqM

      Delete
  104. UPS #6 Delivery today 29/3/18

    https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UPS9105/history/20180329/1921Z/KPAE/KSDF

    ReplyDelete
  105. UPS LN 1546 on her way:
    http://www.snoco.org/axis-cgi/jpg/image.cgi?resolution=800x600

    ReplyDelete
  106. The next Aircraft to come off the line was photographed during the Saudi's Crown Princes visit.

    http://www.boeing.com/features/2018/03/saudi-boeing-joint-venture-03-30.page

    L/N 1547 - 747-8F, RC535, UPS, serial number 64256, N610UP, scheduled delivery July 02 2018

    Info taken from further up this page.

    Roll out date probably in Late May or early June, except in the photo looks pretty much complete, looks like the rate is REALLY SLOW, or their bumping it up a little and storing the frames prior to painting???? Any theories welcome.

    ReplyDelete
  107. UPS is wet leasing up to 19 aircraft because they can't get dry lease or new aircraft fast enough. I'd assume this bodes well for future cargo aircraft sales

    http://www.aircargonews.net/news/airline/freighter-operator/single-view/news/ups-turns-to-wet-lease-aircraft-to-bridge-the-growth-gap.html

    ReplyDelete
  108. Any news on that SW interest posted earlier this year? Why has it gone quiet? That was for 20 frames.

    Just because the rate is 6 per year doesn't mean they only need to sell just as much you know :).....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't know. My guess is they are still in negotiation? There was talk of Atlas wanting more, and Cargolux as well, however with the production rate being held steady, they didn't necessarily want to wait until all the UPS frames were done before they started receiving their frames it seems.

      Perhaps some of these will come through and Boeing can help by switching some slots around, or perhaps going to 9 per year?

      Delete
    2. I like the idea of a rate increase but it will put pressure on the back log (a bit) so long that new commitments are found it will make sense. That being said, there isn't an atmosphere of optimism in this market, in fact quite the opposite. Just looking across the aisle, the Giant Camel from Toulouse isn't so hot either with 1 new customer taking 3 frames that were recycled from a cancellation.

      Such DOOM and GLOOM is pretty much expected these days, so the question is what is doing this. Of course BCA knows the answer and has adopted a 'wait and see' attitude. So far it has worked out OK, with their current backlog coming from the model they said would sell so its alright isn't it??

      HELL NO, they are looking at program closure with no new orders if it really comes to that. As for improvements, the last installment was a derived engine from the PIP 2 for the 787, a lower risk, lower cost spin off. Not quite the bleak forecast from 2-3 years ago, but alarms should be still ringing. They are not out of the woods yet, especially if their looking for a break even point.

      Delete
  109. UPS N610UP 1st flight scheduled.

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/BOE535?src=hash

    ReplyDelete
  110. UPS No.7 has flown to KPDX.

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/BOE535?src=hash

    ReplyDelete
  111. UPS #7 has returned from PDX.

    https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N610UP

    There is still 1 month to go before scheduled Delivery on July 2nd 2018. Possible temporary storage or rescheduled delivery??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe I last saw she was scheduled for deliver 15 July 2018, but the early paint and return seem to indicate that she will most likely be taken up early, especially since UPS seems to be experiencing growth and needs the capacity sooner rather than later.

      Delete
  112. Interesting article. I wonder if Boeing will consider increasing the rate at some point in order to free up some delivery slots.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-16/boeing-747s-given-up-for-dead-find-new-life-in-air-cargo-surge

    ReplyDelete
  113. If this spills over, there might be some interest in those classic 747 F models. Not sure if there are many still left in storage.

    ReplyDelete
  114. CA and CX Post strong cargo results.

    https://cargofacts.com/cathay-and-air-china-post-strong-april-cargo-results/

    ReplyDelete
  115. Cargolux to add 3 new 747f Next year.

    https://cargofacts.com/cargolux-adding-three-747-400fs-next-year-but-where-will-they-come-from/

    ReplyDelete
  116. Interesting, in one of the articles linked to that one, where they talk about their fleet in the future, the CEO states that he has found, as well as other executives, that Boeing is currently not taking any new orders for the 747-8F. He follows that up by saying that they have not made any definitive announcement as to whether production will continue or not. This seems odd to me considering that all Boeing has talked about was waiting for the replacement cycle for the -400Fs to come around. Perhaps Boeing is trying to build up demand before taking new orders?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Could be that the continued sale of the freighter would add significant pressure for a rate increase and that would cost BCA money if indeed that is what they do. So in order not to overrun their budgets, they defer any order placements/MOU's and focus on keeping costs low at the 6 frame a year rate. This is to ensure that the produced frames do have some kind of a margin on them whereas a hastily increased production rate could very well wipe off those margins and defeat the purpose of building them. This exercise might be tied to accounting, not program closure as that would require a separate announcement and a formal decision to close production over a set time frame if no orders are received. This decision can always be rescinded if things change.

      If their overall goal is to build up orders and receive a rash of new orders over a short period, the increase could be economically viable to pursue and for the cost of an increased rate may yield them the economies of scale better than a gradual rate increase, thus increasing the size of those margins perhaps?

      Just my 2 cents.

      Delete
  117. N610UP at KPAE.

    http://paineairport.com/images/fl20180601.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  118. UPS #7 Has flown the Nest.

    https://twitter.com/search?q=%23UPS9105&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email

    Next frame to come out of the FAL

    L/N 1548 - 747-8F, RC536, UPS, serial number 64257, N611UP, scheduled delivery August 01 2018

    Info taken from UP THERE. I'm expecting Roll out early July but could be sooner.

    The next 2 frames after that have fewer and fewer details, so if anybody wants to post it go ahead.

    Also no firm info on #6 for 2018, or maybe I'm blind.

    ReplyDelete
  119. UPS #8 Has flown to PDX.

    https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/1011703826485612544

    On the sales side there is speculation that there are top up orders for a few cargo carriers at this Years Farnborough Airshow. The number looks like 7-8 frames of new orders from both existing but also a new customer. No details provided and nothing solid, alas we will see.

    ReplyDelete
  120. N611UP has returned from Portland. Delivery is next month so expect storage in PAE until that day.

    Very little news about the next frame and also 'other news' that they are no longer offering the freighter to Airlines. There is a substantial backlog of roughly 20-25 frames if you can include some of the ABC commitments and supposed SW orders from last year. If there are more orders on the horizon other than UPS or ABC unfilled frames, these have not been announced also there is no update on the testing done by RC021 and a supposed PIP for the GEnX 2B.

    Many things are hanging in the Air right now or at least it seems so because there is so little news coming out about the program.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I read that there may be a supplier issue and Boeing is looking to see if that can be resolved, and that may be one of the reasons why they have been more low key about offering it to airlines. I do feel that they have a good market if they wait for the upcoming replacement cycle. The re-activation of so many -400s points to unmet demand due to increasing growth.

      Maybe there will be a surprise or two at FAS.

      Delete
  121. Thanks Charlie for your continued updates!

    ReplyDelete
  122. Not sure what issue it is that they are having with suppliers, but it must be severe if BCA is not adding to the order book. One reason might be that there needs to be guarantees in order to continue such a contract into the future and with few orders this might be difficult to justify from a suppliers perspective, leading to higher prices as such suppliers strive to recoup costs from taking on such contracts.

    Whatever the real issues are it must be tied to the market for new orders as this has consistently be the thorn in the side of this program. One way or another it must lead back to what is perceived by the market as what is valuable and what is not.

    The demand for older models is a bit misleading. As long as the older frames exist it is difficult to justify a purchase of new frames, so long that there is a supply of such older frames sold at a fraction of new ones. This might be the reason for the resurrection of so many retired frames, but the growth continues and the supply of such retired frames is finite. This does not mean that BCA should rest on its laurels and hope that magically a market will appear, new incentives must be offered and the only area where the 747 is competitive is with total payload and cargo density, not volume.

    The only way to iterate the design in freighter terms is up, which to me looks like an 80 m stretched version offering large payloads with contemporary engines or advanced ones, producing a freighter that has a lot of lift above and beyond what its competitors can build as long as there exists a business case for it.


    As for keeping this page alive thanks to all the people who regularly check back here, and please feel free to post something.

    ReplyDelete