The Chart:

Sunday, November 30, 2014

Asiana Drama Bomba

The unofficial word is that Asiana was looking to buy four or five 747-8Fs. Lines 1501, 1502, 1520, and 1521 were supposedly earmarked for them, and it seemed to be going that direction, with line 1501 getting Asiana grey on her tail and nacelles.

The paint tells the story however, and now lines 1501 and 1502 have gotten full "white tail" paint jobs and look headed for a long stay in the desert under ownership of Boeing. Judging from this order of events, it seems the Asiana deal has been taken off the table.

This is sad. But more worrisome are the apparent conditions of this deal. Now, to be clear, this is all my speculation, but it seems Boeing built two freighters for an airline without a deal in place. If this was a standard deal, there'd be heavy penalties in place Asiana would have to pay if they cancelled. This seemed to be more of a good faith thing on Boeing's part, building first and assuming a deal could be worked out. That shows some desperation, not surprisingly, on the 747 sales front.

Because this is mostly speculation from what is observable, this could be inaccurate and Asiana could have just delayed the deal for half a year or more. But if they did cancel, why? They already operate the 747-400 freighter, including some very old and ill-favored 747-400BCF (Boeing Converted Freighter), so they would seem a prime target for the 748F.

Worst of all, now I'll have two more stored 747s to obsess over for the next god-knows-how-long...

13 comments:

  1. Deals are being rejected for all sorts of reasons. The question is, Did BCA bundle in something else in there that was not reported about? Then this 'thing' could be the deal breaker. If it is cancellation penalties, surely an organization like OZ would be able to handle those. Is the market not right? Well if your buying for the next 5 years it is, but Airlines don't do that of course, they buy 10 years ahead or more. So the question is what kind of deal was on the table, or more specifically which models were on the table. If BCA offered them a mixed bag of 8I and 8F and did it in such a way to make the deal all an either or situation, then no customer wants that. This could be a replay of the CX jig but only we don;t see it that way because of the way it was reported.

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  2. It is definitely disappointing how this has played out so far, however this deal has been in the works for a long time, so it could literally be almost anything that is causing the current situation. Something like a deal that you are suggesting is possible, however It is also possible that it is simply a matter of finances. The financial situation may have changed significantly in the past 6 months, and while some things, like the cargo market, are looking to be positive, the dip in oil prices or the change in currency strength may have counter-veiling affects as well.

    Unfortunately, we can't really know until more actual information is released. All we can do is hope that it is simply some kind of delay, or that the frames get placed elsewhere in short order.

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  3. I also have another theory, it involves witch craft and soap salesmen. Any takers? :)

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    Replies
    1. Only if you can work chemtrails into this theory of yours. That'll bring in the readers.

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  4. It was the butler. The butler did it, in the reading room with the candlestick. :D




    ;

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  5. RC671 ferry flight to Marana for storage:
    http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE671/history/20141205/1800Z/KPAE/KMZJ

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  6. RC068 delivered:
    http://flightaware.com/live/flight/CCA88/history/20141208/1800Z/KPAE/KMWH

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  7. Any pictures. Matt Cawby's site hasn't any.

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    1. Delivery flight to China will probably be tomorrow.

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  8. Air Force may be pulling forward the delivery date for the replacement Air Force One's

    http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/2014/12/air-force-may-speed-up-air-force-one-replacement.html

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  9. Production pace cut from 1,5 to 1,3 confirmed:
    https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/542358311170228225

    It looks like death is very near.

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    1. Well, in actuality, the slower they build them, the further off production death will be. But yeah, not a positive sign :(

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  10. They aren't even trying.

    There is something missing from this equation and the word is FBW. All of the 748's competitors have it. The FBW removes mechanical links and replaces them with wires. Are wires lighter than mechanical and hydraulic lines? Yes they are, and if there is a way to save the Queen, it means looking at FBW seriously as a weight saving measure and more. Furthermore what is good for the goose is good for the gander. Take the FBW codes on the T7 and tweak it to fit the 748. Far fetched? all the work can be done on the ground in a simulator and trials in the sim don't cost as much as losing 2.3 billion because they weren't interested in doing more product development.

    And that is the point here, if you want to save the Queen, it won't be for free, unless BCA does something about it. Also, QR, EK et al don't want to use antiquated Technology that is not cost effective and isn't on par with what others are offering, regardless of the range or payload uplift. Looking to hit 8500nm? Then that is the price to pay. Either they get serious and shape up or ship out just like the 757.

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