Lufthansa took delivery of their 11th 747-8I on Friday, line 1494 (RC032) D-ABYM.
One first flight for Silk Way Airlines second leased frame, line 1496 (RC642) 4K-SW882 went up unpainted and looks like she's being prepared for long term storage at Pinal Airpark.
Lufthansa line 1497 (RC033) D-ABYN rolled out to the flight line.
Lastly, you might have noticed the page view counter hitting 100,000 recently. I think that's pretty cool. If you haven't noticed, there's some great discussion, speculation, and updates going on in the comments section, and I appreciate every last one, as they help keep the chart and this blog apprised of all the latest rumors and news regarding the 747-8.
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| Thanks to Royal Scott King |
One first flight for Silk Way Airlines second leased frame, line 1496 (RC642) 4K-SW882 went up unpainted and looks like she's being prepared for long term storage at Pinal Airpark.
Lufthansa line 1497 (RC033) D-ABYN rolled out to the flight line.
Lastly, you might have noticed the page view counter hitting 100,000 recently. I think that's pretty cool. If you haven't noticed, there's some great discussion, speculation, and updates going on in the comments section, and I appreciate every last one, as they help keep the chart and this blog apprised of all the latest rumors and news regarding the 747-8.
Well Thank You for the honorary mention, but for what its worth all this 1st Class Speculation does not come cheap, of course. :D
ReplyDeleteAnd now Back to the speculations......
Freighter
I've read enough stories about how the 777-8F will replace the 747 freighter role. Its patented Nonsense.
There are 2 reasons why:
The 777-8F is smaller
The 747 is the only VLA designed for freight. The Proof: The Hump.
As for whether it has 2 engines or 4 engines, that is subject to fuel prices being what they are in 10 years time, which is not only unlikely, but also is a highly speculative position to be taking. No, the freighter is here to stay, and will continue to be built past 2020, simply because no other aircraft above or below it can step up to the plate. Also, if the fuel prices fall to within half of what they are now, we could possibly see some of these 747's retirements being suddenly resurrected and becoming active again.
Intercontinental.
There is a trend that will take shape among the airlines that bought VLA's and its that there are those that bought the 748I alongside their A380's that they already have in operation. Lufthansa is the only Airline operating both, but this year we will see Korean Air join them. Unlike all the other Airlines that Bought A380's, I have not heard a single negative thing about this Airline and its VLA's, Which naturally come up as a source (proclaimed of course) of a particular Airlines poor performance. The exception being Emirates of course.
Joining them in the near future is Transaero, which when fully delivered will be the 3rd such Airline to have both 748I and A380. There is a possibility that this niche role will continue, meaning more orders but if Airlines cannot and do not see the virtue of of Having a 'VLA lite' hanging around, then they should just buy 777's, fit 10 across Y in all of them and wonder why their airline is facing a Slump because pax have voted with their wallets and don't want to sit in the behind of of an Overgrown 767 with too many Tires. (And they wonder how come a certain ME carrier can fill
N x A380, from the SAME Airport!!)
While I agree the freighter is here for a long while, I'm wondering about how many they'll actually build when all is said and done. With belly cargo capacity exploding, and the fact that plenty of 747-400Fs are parked right now, some not even 10 years old yet, it seems overcapacity is still the current situation. With about 70 current 747-8Fs ordered, I would be surprised if they can double that amount over the next 5 years. Of course, 70 more orders would be almost 4 years of production at the current rate.
DeleteI also think thanks are in order to TurtleLuv for maintaining this blog, and providing a place for some enthusiasts like us to exchange this information and have some discussions!
DeleteRegarding the freighter market, the continued strengthening of the air cargo market will hopefully be the main driver here. The 777-8F wouldn't be available until 2025, and even then, the points you make with respect to sheer payload capacity and the ability for outsized cargo, will keep the 747-8F on the top of that pyramid.
With respect to the Intercontinental, I do believe that it is possible that many airlines are watching what Lufthansa has been doing with their 747-8Is, and how they like them. Perhaps even the other ones that currently have them on order, like KE and UN, which also have 380s. The acceleration of the LH delivery schedule is a great sign I believe, since as late as mid-2012, Lufthansa was warning of possibly having to defer their deliveries, or otherwise slow the schedule down form the 5 per year, if Boeing and the 747-8I were not meeting their agreed upon targets.
It turns out that the opposite now seems to be true, as they seem happy with their frames and the revenue that they bring. Additionally, they are debuting their new Premium Economy class on the 747-8I. I think for them to do that really makes a statement that they seem to have found a good spot, in terms of premium configuration, for the plane. Here is a video someone posted of the current rendering for their product: http://www.flickr.com/photos/businesstraveller/12952110955/
I'm sure it will eventually be part of Lufthansa's great 747-8 website: http://747-8.lufthansa.com/#/b747/experience , however it doesn't currently appear to be linked there.
Anyway, the point being that it is possible, that as Lufthansa continues to determine how best to use their frames, that other airlines are watching closely and may potentially follow suit. We shall have to wait and see!
http://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/etihad-airways-net-profit-surges-48-to-62m-in-2013-1.1298625
DeleteEtihad Cargo profits way up, and they expect big growth going forward. They got their first 747-8 this year, perhaps they will take more in the future.
'While I agree the freighter is here for a long while, I'm wondering about how many they'll actually build when all is said and done. With belly cargo capacity exploding, and the fact that plenty of 747-400Fs are parked right now, some not even 10 years old yet, it seems overcapacity is still the current situation. With about 70 current 747-8Fs ordered, I would be surprised if they can double that amount over the next 5 years. Of course, 70 more orders would be almost 4 years of production at the current rate.'
DeleteThat might depend on what kind of freighter model they can develop using the current structure, offering a higher MTOW version with slightly up rated engines might just give the orders a bit of a boost, but with overcapacity in the market, it remains to be seen whether if such a slight model variation will be sufficient to ensure future orders.
That being said, there are Intercontinental Airframes also coming off the line and that might shore up some of the slack. If they are willing to offer some kind of Combi it might work at attracting airlines who are looking to belly freight to do some hauling. Combi's however by nature seem unattractive, but if offered could give airlines some flexibility especially if they can re-examine and design a proper fireproof bulkhead that is removable and lightweight. That will of course require 2 things, the first is a willing customer who wants to buy such an airplane, the second is some kind of certification work to prove that it works and meets all the requirements.
This latter part may well be the death knell for the Combi, unless the airline in question is willing to put up with the current partition requirements, which don't require certification but carry a weight penalty. However it remains to be seen if this is an option that Boeing would put on the table. So far I have never heard of it, apart from a possibility that KLM is looking for a 747 replacement.
'With respect to the Intercontinental, I do believe that it is possible that many airlines are watching what Lufthansa has been doing with their 747-8Is, and how they like them. Perhaps even the other ones that currently have them on order, like KE and UN, which also have 380s. The acceleration of the LH delivery schedule is a great sign I believe, since as late as mid-2012, Lufthansa was warning of possibly having to defer their deliveries, or otherwise slow the schedule down form the 5 per year, if Boeing and the 747-8I were not meeting their agreed upon targets.'
It is beyond doubt now that Lufthansa, not Boeing is selling the 747-8I. All of the feedback generated from that model comes from Lufthansa, not Boeing as far as I can tell. Possibly because Lufthansa is the sole operator? Or maybe it is because Boeing is too busy selling 777's and 787's. Whatever the circumstances, I haven't seen Boeing go on a Sales Campaign for the 747, or if they did, there were no takers. If anything needs to happen and soon, it is for the improvements to continue down the line.
One wonders how many of those RFP's Boeing put out were rejected because of Marginal and Minor altercations, that an ER model, or just an improved spec version could have dealt with? The market will make its mind up with -8I if it has not already, but the key is not sitting on the current spec and hoping that some Airline will buy that. Boeing will have to offer airlines a flexibility that their competitors are not and to do this whilst making the 747 more competitive, otherwise it wont work.
can you make a 777x blog? I dont see any good 777 blogs now. The 777-300ERS could be like the old 747-400's with a back page.
ReplyDeleteI've considered it. I might just make a chart and host that somewhere.
DeleteRC510 scheduled for ferry flight to Marana:
ReplyDeletehttp://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE510/history/20140307/2100Z/KPAE/KMZJ
Another one Eh?
ReplyDeleteDL to launch RFP soon for 744 replacements.....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6018533/