As you can see in the chart, new 747-8s are starting to go into storage again. NCA, Cargolux, Silk Way, and now even a Boeing Business Jet for Qatar are in or about to be in desert storage at Pinal Airpark, as well as a few that will apparently be stored at Paine Field.
The NCA and Cargolux frames I'm not concerned about. They've both already stored and subsequently taken frames last year, and it's just a matter of fiscal issues that's causing the deferrals. All of these frames will most likely be delivered into service by the end of the year.
Silk Way's are less clear. Silk Way currently operates three 747-400F (two under the Silk Way West subsidiary). I don't know if they plan on expanding with the four 747-8Fs they have ordered, or if they'll replace the 400Fs. Either way, their first 747-8F is going into short term storage at KPAE, while the second is going into long term. Hopefully we can infer from this that they'll be taking one for delivery this summer, and one towards the end of the year.
The BBJ is more depressing. Here's a jet that, at best, has to sit around undergoing mods for one or two years before it goes into private service, which is already a questionable use of the word service. So now we are left to wait an unknown amount of time for it to come out of long term storage, to then go into modification for one or two years, to then eventually fly a few rich dudes around once in a while. Not exactly an auspicious future for this frame, and I'm not holding my breath waiting to see it fly. What could be the reasons for the delay? Is Abu Dhabi running out of money?
In good news, it looks like Korean Air Cargo line 1481 (RC548) HL7623 is getting ready to deliver. That is, unless she goes into storage too.
And in honor of poor line 1495 (RC009) A6-PFB (?), here she is taking off this morning on a final flight into storage.
The NCA and Cargolux frames I'm not concerned about. They've both already stored and subsequently taken frames last year, and it's just a matter of fiscal issues that's causing the deferrals. All of these frames will most likely be delivered into service by the end of the year.
Silk Way's are less clear. Silk Way currently operates three 747-400F (two under the Silk Way West subsidiary). I don't know if they plan on expanding with the four 747-8Fs they have ordered, or if they'll replace the 400Fs. Either way, their first 747-8F is going into short term storage at KPAE, while the second is going into long term. Hopefully we can infer from this that they'll be taking one for delivery this summer, and one towards the end of the year.
The BBJ is more depressing. Here's a jet that, at best, has to sit around undergoing mods for one or two years before it goes into private service, which is already a questionable use of the word service. So now we are left to wait an unknown amount of time for it to come out of long term storage, to then go into modification for one or two years, to then eventually fly a few rich dudes around once in a while. Not exactly an auspicious future for this frame, and I'm not holding my breath waiting to see it fly. What could be the reasons for the delay? Is Abu Dhabi running out of money?
In good news, it looks like Korean Air Cargo line 1481 (RC548) HL7623 is getting ready to deliver. That is, unless she goes into storage too.
And in honor of poor line 1495 (RC009) A6-PFB (?), here she is taking off this morning on a final flight into storage.
Hey I got a great idea to simplify costs, just move the whole factory to the storage facility, that way they don't have to do B1's even.
ReplyDeleteHow depressing.... :(
RC548 delivered! http://flightaware.com/live/flight/KAL28D/history/20140314/2110Z/KPAE/RKSI
ReplyDeleteThere is some work going on around RC021. It could just be maintenance, but in the picture, the engines look like their being removed. More Testing, or just engine-less storage at PAE?
ReplyDeleteLink.
ReplyDeletehttp://paineairport.com/kpae10213.htm
Maybe additional tweaks and testing? Or perhaps refurb work to get it back up to her younger sisters' specs?
ReplyDeleteOver on anet, Karel posted the following pic saying it was the second Silk Way frame now in livery.
http://paineairport.com/kpae10217.htm
Hope its the former, as the latter would indicate no more improvements.
ReplyDeleteThere are still odds and ends that have so far no news:
~Project Ozark
~Weight Reductions
~Hot and High Engine Performance.
Would be great if we could have some kind of indication of whats going on.
I found this article, which is apparently the text of the AWST article from late December 2013, which gives some more detailed numbers regarding the existing improvements and some of what they are investigating/planning still for Project Ozark.
Deletehttp://leadership.ng/columns/saturday-column/338714/boeings-performance-push
I still feel that there will be airlines watching closely to see how the updated performance of the PIP frames turn out in actual service.
Yeah I've read that.
DeleteIts interesting to note that the improvements on the 'book' are whats being thrown around various forums and websites.
There are those improvements that are not promoted or ''PR'ed in any way because of 'operator ambiguity'. So really its difficult to measure all of the improvements that the PIP has delivered without some testimonial from an operator (LH). We await that of course with Bated breath.
There is a slew of other stuff in that article, but really I've known about these too. So really it hasn't really answered any questions, But I will be looking forward to the new spec that will be published as soon as the results of their Development Work is published.
In the mean time, its checkers and beer. Want to play?? :)
LN 1498 D-ABYO has rolled out, which means the next Aircraft is Air China #1.
ReplyDeletehttp://paineairport.com/kpae10223.htm
http://paineairport.com/kpae10224.htm
Silk Way #1 To fly soon. Taxi Test today, F/Flight imminent.
ReplyDeleteAccording to an article, it looks like NCA has financed another delivery using sale and leaseback. I'm guessing that means that one of the stored frames will be pulled out of that mode shortly?
ReplyDeleteBad News...
ReplyDeleteGaruda just dumped quads for twins :(
http://www.ausbt.com.au/why-garuda-grounded-plans-for-airbus-a380-boeing-747-8
Do you think that Boeing will drop the price on this plane to sell some more, or are they going to can it due to the new 777X being built in Seattle?
ReplyDeleteThat's a really hard prediction. I hope they sell more, whatever it takes, but the 777X is going to make that harder and harder. Either way, Boeing must have a big plan coming. Canning the 747 means a huge reallocation of factory space and workforce. Continuing to build the 747 means they must have some other big plan to sell more over the next 5 years, whether it be pricing incentives or upgrades to performance.
DeleteI believe that you are correct, TurtleLuv. Boeing has a plan of some kind, and they are sticking to it. They have been pretty insistent that they 747-8 and the 777-9 serve two different spaces, and if you actually look at seat counts, whether you are using Boeing's older standard, or more modern standards, you can see that they are correct. It also seems as if Boeing is looking at how the existing airlines, Lufthansa and soon Korean Air and Air China, end up configuring and using their frames, and what kind of performance and revenue they see.
DeleteIt seems as if they could be waiting for some hard data from LH and from the cargo operators with respect to the latest block of frames, and that with that type of feedback in hand, may push once again to win some orders, especially from fleet planners that are looking for an increase in lift sooner than the beginning of the next decade.
From a strictly cargo standpoint, I believe Boeing expects the cargo market to recover, and while it may not recover as high as some expect, there are still hundreds of older 747F frames out there that could be replaced.
In line with Boeing having a plan would be the work that they have already detailed that is ongoing with respect to continuing to improve performance.
I'm not sure how Boeing Markets the 748 if it Markets the Type at all. What I've heard so far are rumors regarding rejected RFP's because Boeing wants to maintain a margin on the 748.
ReplyDeleteThere are some questions about these rumors that I would like Answers to, such as to which airline, the number of units and for which model the freighter or the Intercontinental. In many instances Boeing or the Airline in question skipped the 748I as an option or rejected it early on, choosing instead smaller types or going for the A380.
Then all of a sudden, an airline buys a few frames, a small order here and another over there.
The trend that I have observed so far is a growing niche between the A380 and 77W that is being filled by the 748. There is also another trend of Airlines opting to buy both VLA's and in the near future there may be more of such Airlines operating both. All it may take is for an existing A380 operator to place a modest order of 5 frames and that will boost confidence in the 748 significantly,
If Boeing believes that in the end there is a market here worth pursuing, we might not see the price re-adjusted but we may still see discounts being offered to woo new Airlines, but nothing too drastic , perhaps a few percentage points off the listed price, and even then for an order heading towards double digits.
Lastly, at current rates and with the current orders in hand the 747 would be out of production well before the first 777X parts arrive at the factory.
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ReplyDeleteThere are reports that the first GECAS Silk Way frame is getting ready to be delivered.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/picture-silk-ways-747-8-freighter-poised-for-delivery-397831/
Additionally, it appears that they were originally planned for delivery in March and April, but that some delay in financing has caused that to slip to April and May, or maybe just a bit later. However, there is no question that they will take both the frames. Also, it looks like their own frames were originally scheduled for 2015 and 2016, however whether that has changed or not is unclear, since both of those frames should exit the FAL much earlier than that.
Lets hope so. It will be good to see another operator with the freighter.
ReplyDeleteThere are signs that the cargo market is picking up in places, with a company called Aerospace One putting 747 classics into service.
There's also Baltia Airlines, which is still pushing to launch services to Baltic countries with a 747-200 passenger plane they have up and running. I'm really hopeful they can pull it off. Last time I flew a classic was on Northwest to Tokyo in 2004.
DeleteLONG LIVE THE 747!!
DeleteOne has to poke around a bit, but there are some cool pics here http://poaspotter.blogspot.com/2014/03/gru-30032014-d-abym-boeing-747-8i_30.html from LH's start of service to GRU a few days ago.
ReplyDeleteNice to see Lufthansa really putting their birds to work, as D-ABYM was just delivered, and only finished getting fitted out a few weeks before! Perhaps now we see why they wanted an acceleration of their deliveries, reinforcing the idea that this could be good overall for the possibility of LH perhaps picking up more frames going forward.
great picks, especially that first one. Love the 747-8I profile.
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