The Chart:

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

KPAE Backed Up With 747-8s, D-ABYL Delivers

Line 1492 (RC031) D-ABYL, #10 for Lufthansa delivered on Thursday. Lufthansa should take #11 in the next couple of weeks. Here's D-ABYL arriving in Frankfurt, Germany:

Deliveries need to pick up indeed, because a rather substantial backlog has built up over the past six months or so at Paine Field. It seems a lot of cargo operators are in no hurry to take their frames. There are twelve frames sitting at KPAE currently, and only two are older frames. Cargolux has two ready to start test flying. NCA has three frames in waiting (one has flown, one needs engines, one needs engines and paint). Their last delivered, line 1479 (RC525) JA15KZ, hasn't flown since her delivery flight almost a month ago according to FlightRadar and FlightAware. They must be having some logistic or scheduling problems, because it shouldn't take a month to get a freighter into service. It'll be interesting to see how quickly Silk Way takes up the two frames currently on the flight line earmarked for them. One bit of good news is that line 1481 (RC548) HL7623 for Korean Air Cargo finally has engines and paint.

Hopefully, along with the slower production rate, this 747-8 backlog can clear out over the next two to three months.


    RC526 will fly to Marana...

    1. bah! NCA will probably hold off til the end of the year to take the next three.

    2. Before u blow a gasket here is a bit of good news:

      Cargolux orders 1 747-8f for delivery next year.

      That actually made my day.

    3. one is better than none. Although Arik will probably officially cancel their two Intercontinentals this year putting us at -1 net (which I suppose is better than -2).

    4. Well, Arik Air was originally documented as doing this starting back in November of 2013. The cause at the time was supposedly their feeder network, and that they needed to build traffic numbers up more in order to match the capacity of the 747-8. However, after that, I don't remember if it was December or early 2014, they reported much higher than expected revenue and traffic numbers, so perhaps they are evaluating still?

      Regarding other possible orders, if the cargo market continues to rebound, there will hopefully be more orders there this year. Both versions will hopefully benefit from customers getting their own real-world numbers on the PIP'd frames, and that could trigger some renewed interest.

      Beyond that, there are still several Southeast Asian carriers that may weigh in. Another blog that I ran across had this as part of their post:

      "I clipped something out of the Singapore Airshow press briefings from Boeing's sales chief at the show, Dinesh Keskar.

      'Not surprisingly, Keskar ranks Singapore as perhaps the top market for Boeing in Southeast Asia, and one particularly suited to the 777X. But he also emphasized the potential embodied in the likes of Garuda Indonesia, which has expressed interest in the 747-8I, ...' "

      It's all optimistic I know, but they are all in the realm of possibility.

    5. There was some talk of a Garuda order last year. Apparently it is for Hadj flights. There was no confirmation MOU or anthing else.

      Also if your talking about Asia, there are quite a number of freighters that are 747s. So while the Pax market is all but gone, there might be interest in the freighter from the likes of SQ, CI, MH etc.

  2. Not much good news all around.

    Still I'm waiting those 2 UFO's and the supposed Transaero 'top up' order. Will it happen?, who knows.

    As for my speculating, its fun actually to just to sit in front of a keyboard and type up a fanciful, if not utterly unrealistic scenario, just for fun now. Well its words on a computer.

    Also read somewhere that the PIP's range is now 8100Nm. Again unconfirmed. :(

  3. LN 1497 D-ABYN has been rolled out.

  4. RC548 scheduled for B1, but I don't think it will make it, weather is rather horrible in PAE today.

  5. OK since were still waiting, and I don't have a deck of cards...

    I'm going to put up one of my longshot theories for fun.....

    'The person who created the hump on the 747 was not Joe Sutter, but John F. Kennedy.... '

    Go figure....

  6. RC009 BBJ 1st flight:

  7. Looks like Air China is promoting their incoming 747-8Is on their Facebook page. :-)

    Hopefully some more interesting news coming soon. Has anyone heard any new rumblings lately? There is talk of Saudia wanting to pick up some widebodies, scheduling for delivery in the next couple of years. They operate several 747s, and currently wet lease (I believe) 2 747-8Fs. There is probably some potential there.

    I'm also wondering if there may be something around the 1500th frame being completed or delivered. One can hope. :-)

    1. Another good find.

      What makes you say Saudia is wetleasing? I was under the impression they purchased the 2 747-8Fs.

    2. Ah, I thought I read that somewhere a LONG time ago, however it may also just be the influence on me that they never revealed who actually purchased those frames. In Boeing's O/D list, they are still listed as 2 frames for "Unidentified Customers". It is very possible that they own them as well, as I can't seem to track down where I read the wet lease idea previously.

  8. Here's the sound of some wheels turning:


    I just don't see how a 777x Would compete here.

    The 748i IS bigger than the any model of the 777 period end of discussion. So no need to cramm pax at the back to save money, when you can easily afford to buy bigger, with cheap fuel available.

    But of course I might be wrong.

    Hadj flights=VLA's. Interesting thing to note. Indonesia's economy. It is doing quite well, GDP up nearly 6% also its got good demographics. Given the right conditions, their economy might pick up steam and do better this year, especially when others on the region might no do so well.

    In the end there is a possibility here, but also wait and see.


    Transaero are on the up, They have been expanding aggressively. They have 20 second hand 747s, someday these will go too. Why the need for large twins here, when they just ordered the 748i? Why bother, its smaller, and may in the end offer only marginally small improvements. Also they might need them before the decade is out. So 777x is a non starter.

    But be careful hare: Transaero also ordered the A380.


    Not Air China as Mario's press release just confirmed. This means that the order for the 2 frames will be firmed up soon.

    It could be Arik re-ordering the cancelled frames?

    MY latest gambit is that its Hainan Airlines. They placed an Mou. They did not get approval. They cancelled their A380's, but there was no identical announcement for the 748i. Perhaps they got approval for 2 Frames from the previous 15 Frame order. What an embarassment. Thus, the secrecy.

    Aeroflot? nah just kidding.


    Not over, not by any kind of Longshot. (JFK included) ;)

    1. It's always fun to speculate. But we need some wins or morale will be damaged.

  9. RC510 1st flight:
    RC548 reg is HL7623

  10. there's a company offering to install elevators in the belly to help board 747-8s, primarily for very wealthy personal owners of 747s and Heads of State. The article also hints at a few more possible 747-8s private jet sales to wealthy future owners in the works

    1. Yeah they've been talking about the elevators for a while now. It is pretty cool, even if I think it's quite ridiculous; I guess that goes with the whole 500 million+ for a private jet. Still, I have mixed feelings about these BBJ 747s I've posted about before. I'd rather they exist than not, but they feel like such a waste of a jet.