The Chart:

Friday, January 22, 2016

747-8 Report cuts post rate to 0.5 per month.

As you can now see, a prescient move on my part; one post per 747-8 manufactured. Boeing's new rate begins in September, and comes with an $885,000,000 pre-tax write off this month. I'll be writing off $0.085 myself, rounded up.

Seriously though, this is really not a harbinger of future success for the 747 program, no matter how you look at it. Six planes a year is starting to look like an exit plan to me. I feel bad typing that, and it's especially frustrating with how cheap jet fuel is now.

35 comments:

  1. I recognize that I'm a big fan of the 747, but I really don't see the rate change as an exit plan. The 747 program appears to take up a massive chunk of building 40. If they exit the 747, they could do so much more with the space. Instead, they're keeping a fine program alive long enough to weather the storm into the next surge of air cargo. If they can still make the planes profitably, I figure the 747 can stay alive at least until late-2020s, when the last of the 744Fs get replaced with 748s.

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    1. I do want to believe. But I'm torn between optimism and pragmatism. Many would say the continuous rate decrease trend is "the writing on the wall". I'll happily eat crow though.

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  2. The fuel price could be killing factor for B747-8. With so low oil price, purchase of cheap as dirt Boeing 747-400(BC)F or Boeing 767-30ER(BC)F is much more affordable for airlines. Pax planes are in the same situation - airline can purchase old frame, go through D-check and full cabin refurbishment and end cost would still be only small part of new 787/777/747-8I frame price. 747-8s are very expensive to buy or lease and cheap fuel made flying older planes very profitable again.

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    1. That makes the 748 sit in a no man's land; too expensive to be attractive when fuel is low, not efficient enough to be attractive when fuel is high. I love seeing 744's come back to life, especially underutilized ones though.

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  3. There is a whole slew of stuff that was coming down the pipe line but never did. I remember talk of a strengthened gear and minor range improvements, but these never happened. The market has just collapsed for this type, in a very horrible way, just like you say above.

    Sadly with all the innovations BCA can throw at this, it may just well be the end. Au Revoir Jumbo jet, well see you on the other side. :(

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  4. At the end of the month there will be 10 "white tails". I don't see how Boeing can sell all of these
    with the price of oil staying so low. Sad to see that many Queen of the Skies sitting idle.

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    1. Where is this number coming from? Currently there are the 2 UN and 1 LH NTUs for the -8i, and the solitary remaining Atlas NTU for the -8F. That's 4 total.

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  5. Well you should read the Airliners.net forum. Its like a crime or something to order the 747 in there. Now that website is just of of many that have ppl with a list of talking points, repeating the jargon and the rhetoric of the 'quads are bad' blah blah.blah. Frankly there is nothing wrong the 747 or any quad for that matter.

    And if they ever went out of fashion, its because of the army of trolls on such websites that post such utter nonsense. Do Airline CEO's read such a website, maybe not, but somebody related to the content matter in question (Airlines) does, and maybe just by picking up the false sentiment, maybe leaves them with a false impression. I'm not saying that someone will go out and make a decision because of that website or others like it, nut for chrissakes tone it down.

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  6. RC055 HL7636 delivered to Korean Airlines
    http://flightaware.com/live/flight/KAL28D/history/20160125/2230Z/KPAE/RKSI

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  8. RC002 A7-HHE delivered to customer, HAM-DOH 26th January 2016:
    https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airplanes/A7-HHE#8a36788

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  9. Oops, sorry Mario, 1435,1437,1495,1519 and 1523 are white tails.
    1520,1528 and 1529 are short term storage.

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    1. 1495 is a White tail but it is not owned by Boeing. The owner is Abu Dhabi Amiri flight. Unfortunately the guy it was ordered for passed away before outfitting did begin therefore they did park it in the desert. I’m not sure if they are trying to sell it or if they are waiting to find a new user in the Royal Family. They still have old planes in the fleet that need to be replaced in the future.

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  10. Government of Morocc purchased B747-400 VIP A6-UAE from UAE Presidential Flight Authority. They clearly sold B744s (or maybe even donated them, 2nd one is now i Bahrain ownership) after B748i VIP delivery.

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  11. Latest mad theory I heard from some ghostly character:

    Chuck away the Stretched upper deck, use the shorter deck for a pax model and sell that as Extended range model.

    Now, now it looks better after a few beers or stiff drinks. :)







    [

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    1. How about add some wings to the upper deck, and a docking mechanism, so the 747 can land in two separate destinations. Emirates can send the main deck to Los Angeles, and the upper deck to San Diego.

      Or implement that stupid eject idea that was going around the web the other day in the upper deck only, and charge paranoid people 20x as much to sit there so they can imagine they're more safe.

      And all I've had to drink this morning is stale coffee...

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    2. Sounds like you need a beer. Chips?.......

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    3. There is this weird article about a plane that would suck up containers. Need Long wings perhaps?

      Anyways Making steel fly is not unusual, the Russians built Migs from the stuff, and of course there is those Conestoga thingies that FTL used to fly around.

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  12. Bummer, looks like 1530 is headed to short-term storage as well. That's three in a row with no engines!

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  13. A whole lot of sound,fury, unnecessary drama and other miscellaneous wastes of time, that actually amount to nothing. Well that is what the contents of this post is actually. Ha Ha...

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  14. I fly the 748F (as well as the 744F, the -400BCF and -400ERF) and I have to say I'm not overly impressed, especially when compared to the -400ERF. Is it really worth for an airline to spend so much extra money on a -8F, when you can have the great performance and a much lower purchase/leasing price of a -400ERF? It's typical American: make some "quick fixes" with new engines and a new wing, and then create a big hype in order to sell it. Oh yeah, and they also managed to deliver it about 2 years late!

    Well, I guess most airlines aren't fooled that easily either and, unfortunately for all the 747 fanboys out there, the 748 order book makes this painfully clear.

    With oil at roughly $30, the world's economy shrinking and a huge amount of belly space available, I would doubt that there is a big demand for additional freight capacity. I suppose if they had managed to deliver the thing more or less on time, Boeing could have benefited from the brief pick up in the global economy after the 2008 glut, but now the first dark economic clouds are clearly visible on the horizon and I doubt Boeing would want to subsidize the 747-8 program forever.

    As Emirates CEO Time Clark once said: Boeing makes it's own competitor of the 747-8 in the form of the 777: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/clark-777-300er-responsible-for-sparse-747-8i-sales-353042/

    IMHO it's better to recognize the mistake of pouring hundreds of millions into a race for prestige against the Airbus A380, and instead concentrate on the 777X, the 787 and the 737MAX.

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    1. Would it help if yesterday was the 47th Anniversary of the 747's 1st flight?

      I guess not.

      Also All the proposals BCA put to Airlines about making it bigger and better didn't work either. My best bet is and it is a Longshot Btw, is that it is the only platform that BCA have that will be able to be modded up to a 500 seat capacity in the near term, except as you say, the world is winding down now and it is obvious that Twins are the future.

      So yet again, much ado about nothing I'm afraid. As for Tim Clark, of course, he's perfectly happy with what he's got and he don't need no 'stinking badgers' either. It makes it worse when you look at what other programs were doing when the 747 had it good. The A380 didn't exist and the T7 was competing with the A340 and MD-11.

      No they didn't see it coming, and complaining after the fact is useless. Regret of course, is that which is a most useless emotion.



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  16. Here we go, not quite so gloomy after all:

    “We are currently producing at a rate of 1.3 per month with plans to reduce the rate to one per month in March 2016, further reduce the rate to 0.5 per month in September 2016 and then return to one per month in 2019”

    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeing-predicts-747-8-rate-increase-in-2019-421792/

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  17. RC001 delivered to final customer, DAL-KWI as KUG8747
    https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airplanes/9K-GAA#8ec8251

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  18. Has LN 1534 entered final assembly ?

    Does anyone know if customers have been allocated for LN 1535 and LN 1536 ?

    Geoff

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  19. Some interesting comments on air speed of 747, and viability of a 2 engine version of 747 design:

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/columnist/cox/2016/02/28/fastest-passenger-plane-boeing-747/80946366/

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  21. The commentary is completely DEAD. There are 5 NTU frames built and there are 2 UFO's being built. Those 2 might be for ABC.

    No new rumors either especially about new potential buyers.

    So what gives? Is the Queen dead already?

    Hey Turtleluv, your beer is stale and/or dried up.

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    1. I still keep the chart up to date. My 747 fanaticism has ebbed a bit, I'll admit. There's very little to be excited about lately. I'm tired of watching new airframes sit around in the desert for years.

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    2. I've not been to museum where the 747 was on display, Always it was the cabin and upstairs but never, a walkround, the cockpit, or the cargohold or the wing even. Also if you haven't take the tour at PAE.

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  22. LN1529 RC056 got engines and was moved to the paint hangar:
    https://flic.kr/p/EV3d97
    https://flic.kr/p/EV3jqA

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  23. TurtleLuv, Will you continue support of this great project? It's a great help of all professionals.

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